Seattle Mariners: Predicting the 2012 Opening Day Lineup

The Seattle Mariners are about to end yet another disappointing season, but the rebuild process seems to finally be moving in the right direction. 

The team is just one or two impact players away from being a legitimate contender.

With that being said, here's my look at what the 2012 Opening Day starting lineup could look like. Keep in mind that this projected lineup might not be the most likely scenario, but it's one that I think would really make Seattle a possible playoff team. 

1. Jose Reyes, SS

No matter who signs him this winter, some team will draw a lot of criticism for how much money they give shortstop Jose Reyes.

Also, no matter when it happens or who it happens with, management will get a lot of criticism for replacing Ichiro as the team's leadoff hitter. 

So if this move happens, there will be a lot of criticism, yeah—but Jose Reyes is too good to pass up.

He'll cost a lot of money, but the Mariners can afford it. He's injury prone, but even with two DL stints this year he has put up a WAR of 5.5, good for second among major league shortstops. Two-thirds of Reyes is better than 100 percent of most guys. 

He's hitting .330 this year, possesses good power at his position, walks more than he strikes out and has tremendous speed. His .377 on-base percentage is more than good enough for a leadoff hitter. 

There's no doubt that signing the injury-prone Reyes will draw lots of hate mail, but there's also no doubting how much better he can make this lineup.

Fans will immediately draw comparisons to the Bavasi-era, when Seattle signed a lot of big-name free agents only to see them turn into busts and set the rebuilding back a couple of years, but Reyes doesn't rely on home runs as much as those other signings did.

He won't be affected by Safeco Field as much as someone like Richie Sexson was. In fact, he'll probably thrive in a bigger stadium. 

Don't forget that the electric Reyes will also boost ticket sales in a big way. 

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B

Dustin Ackley spent most of this year in the No. 3 spot, but I'd prefer him hitting second.

Ackley is one of the smartest hitters on the team and has the ability to draw walks and hit for average better than anyone else.

He's better served playing to his strengths and getting on base rather than hitting out of a spot that is traditionally saved for power hitters. I think hitting No. 3 this year might be a big reason why he has struck out more than his career norms.  

Also, if Reyes is constantly on first, it will open up a nice hole in between first and second for the left-handed hitting Ackley. 

3. Ichiro, RF

Why not?

So many people are expecting a bounce back from Ichiro in 2012, but why don't people realize that Ichiro has always depended on his speed to get on base? Now that he's almost 38 years old, he's not getting as many infield hits, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is down and he's not a valuable leadoff hitter anymore.

If he proves to miraculously find his speed again, fine, keep him as the leadoff hitter. But my guess is that he won't. He's not declining as a hitter, he's just beginning to lose a step.

So, back to the original question. Why not? Why not see if the legend of Ichiro as a power hitter is true?

Let him sacrifice some points to that batting average and try to hit for power. He's certainly not helping as a leadoff hitter with a .310 on-base percentage. That's good for the 24th worst in the league among qualified hitters.

4. Mike Carp, DH

Well, he wouldn't be my No. 1 choice for a cleanup hitter, but there's no one else that is really going to fit here.

Prince Fielder is the popular choice, but I think the M's will deem themselves set at first base and DH, so that might be a long shot. 

Despite my lack of faith in the redhead, Carp will be a fine cleanup hitter in 2012 if he hits like he has since July.

Carp has slugged .471 with 11 homers and 45 RBI in just 75 games this season. With a 26 percent K percentage he could stand to strike out a little less, but Carp is surprisingly still just 25 and has time to improve. 

5. Justin Smoak, 1B

Justin Smoak has battled all kinds of problems in 2011, but I'm a believer in the benefits of a fresh start, and he'll get just that in 2012. 

Smoak's splits from 2011 tell a good story about where he likes to hit in the order.

In 35 games at the No. 3 spot, Smoak hit .227 and slugged .439.

From the cleanup spot, he hit .127 with a slugging percentage of .183. Yeah—.183.

And from the fifth spot, Smoak hit .286 with a .362 OBP and .459 slugging percentage.

Despite his major struggles this year, if you project his 54 games hitting out of the five spot to a full season, he would have hit 21 home runs and driven in 87 runs.

If healthy, I'd consider that Smoak's floor for 2012. 

6. Michael Cuddyer, LF

I don't know how hot the market is for Michael Cuddyer, but he seems like the type of guy who can be had for a discount.

This year for the Twins, Cuddyer is hitting .288 with 19 homers and 68 RBI. He can play either of the corner outfield spots, first base or third base.

The 32-year-old doesn't strike out a lot and would fit that role of a quality role player who possesses good pop near the end of the lineup.

Heck, he even hit 32 homers just two years ago and could easily be inserted as the cleanup hitter on occasion. 

In my book, Cuddyer is one of the more underrated upcoming free agents. 

7. Miguel Olivo, C

This represents how much better the Mariners lineup could look in 2012. This year, Olivo was used as the cleanup hitter 43 times and the No. 5 hitter 20 times. He only hit out of the seven spot 13 times.

It's a small sample, but Olivo was actually at his best when he hit No. 7 this year. In those 13 starts, he hit .348 with a home run and five doubles.

Olivo, who provides good defense and a never-say-lose attitude, isn't the most exciting guy in this lineup. I'll be the first to admit that I get sad when I see him as our cleanup hitter, but I can live with him at No. 7.

8. Franklin Gutierrez

Franklin Gutierrez never really seemed to get to full strength this year. I expect him to be better in 2012, but I still don't think he'll ever get back to his 2009 numbers.

Still though, "Death to Flying Things" is too valuable on defense to keep out of the lineup.

He's arguably (and it's not really that hard of an argument) the best defensive center fielder in the majors and neither Casper Wells nor Trayvon Robinson possess good enough offensive skills to pass Guti. 

9. Kyle Seager, 3B

With 12 doubles in just 50 games, Seager has developed himself into a "mini-Edgar" of sorts. Okay, that's a little far off, but still—he's been pretty good.

Seager also makes contact better than any of the Mariner starters not named Ichiro, and that's something Seattle needs to keep in their lineup. 

He still doesn't have the power that lets you put him anywhere besides the very top or the very bottom of the lineup, however. There's no room at the top of this lineup, but Seager will prove himself to be better than a lot of other No. 9 hitters around the league. 

This lineup likely leaves a bench of Trayvon Robinson, Casper Wells, Brendan Ryan, Chone Figgins, Alex Liddi and either Adam Moore, Josh Bard or Chris Gimenez. That's a rounded bench containing a good mix of speed and power. There are also guys in there that can play multiple positions, which is nice.