Big Ten in the Polls: Wild Arguments for and Against

This week's AP poll features four Big Ten teams, and it notably doesn't feature a couple of teams with cases to make for inclusion in the poll.

Today in our Big Ten poll watch we* are going to play Devil's advocate as we examine what teams are in --- and why they shouldn't be ranked as highly as they are --- and what teams might be unjustifiably left out.

These aren't all open and shut cases, but half the fun of college football is the arguing.  Let's see just how crazy we can go as we follow these arguments down the rabbit hole.

In:

#7 Wisconsin - Seventh is awfully high for a team that hasn't played anyone of consequence yet.

If we look at Wisconsin's four wins in terms of value, each can be thrown out very easily.  

UNLV is currently ranked in the bottom 20 of FBS in total offense and defense as well as scoring offense and defense.  Oregon State's two other games were both losses, one of which was to an FCS team and the other to a team coached by Rick Neuheisel.  Northern Illinois is a MAC team that is under a first year head coach and is ranked 108th or worse in all four major defensive categories (rush, pass eff, total, and scoring).  South Dakota is an FCS team.

Wisconsin may be the dominant team that most expect, but nothing from the first four weeks of the season proves that.  Wisconsin may well be a top-10 team in reality, but until they prove it on the field, the Badgers should be ranked outside the top-10.

#8 Nebraska - A top ten team shouldn't leave its fan base quakin' at the thought of losing a single player to injury.

Nebraska is averaging 42 points per game this year.  However, last year Nebraska offense averaged 40.1 adjusted points per game over the first five games, 32.1 over the next four, and 17.4 over the final five.  

This coincides with Taylor Martinez's injury and severe drop off in production.  If Martinez is forced to miss time or play injured, will there be enough offensive production to keep Nebraska scoring the points it needs to get to 10 wins?

Despite Nebraska being 4-0 and averaging 42 points per game, Martinez is still 74th in the nation in passer efficiency and the passing offense is just 106th in total yards.  Martinez might not be good enough to carry the Nebraska offense if he isn't 100 percent healthy, especially if he is already struggling to be average as a passer.  For a player averaging 15 carries a game, injuries are a distinct possibility.

Nebraska is a one dimensional offensive team that is one injury away from a scoring average of under 20 points per game.  

Top 20?  Yeah, on the strength of the defense.  Top 10?  Not until Martinez gets through the season at the same torrid offensive pace he has set the last two Septembers.

#19 Michigan - I've seen this movie before, and I know how it ends.

Tell me if you have heard this before:  Michigan jumps out to an undefeated start against a few cupcakes (2009: EMU, WMU; 2010: EMU, UMass; 2011: WMU, EMU), wins in dramatic fashion against Notre Dame, while winning one more intriguing game against an opponent that is possibly overrated (2010: UConn; 2011: SDSU).

All the while there is a glaring hole that keeps popping up during games (2009, 2010: defense; 2011: Denard can't pass) that most fans and media overlook as the Wolverines sneak into the top 25.  A win against a Big Ten doormat (Indiana and presumably Minnesota) keeps the streak going, but the goodwill comes to an end as the Wolverines collapse like a house on fire.

Oh, you've heard that too?  

Yeah, I'm not buying.  Not yet.  This team should be invited into the top-25 once it beats a team with a pulse.  Never again will I let you fool me, Michigan.  

#24 Illinois - Rule #158 of college football ranking: A ranking case built on Arizona State is bound to fail.

The Illini hardly handled business against Arkansas State and Western Michigan, two teams that should have presumably been easy wins.  If that wasn't unimpressive enough, the Illini's resume is built on one win over Arizona State at home.  

Now, the Sun Devils might be a very good team, and the polls reflect this line of thought. However, the team's two wins are against Missouri (which came back from two scores down to send the game to overtime) and USC (that barely beat Minnesota).  Arizona State's credentials are far from impeachable.

Is Arizona State worthy of pushing the Illini into the top-25?  Not that game alone.

Out:

Michigan State - The Spartans are crucified for one loss.

The same way people have grown weary of trusting the Wolverines, so has much of the national media found itself skeptical of Notre Dame in the past few years (other than Lou Holtz, who would tell you with a straight face right now that Notre Dame is the best team in college football, and actually believe it).  

However, this year the Irish are a handful of badly timed turnovers away from being undefeated and a top-15 team.  Michigan State found this out the hard way.

The Spartans have taken care of business in the other three non conference games, with a combined score of 117-13.  Michigan State is at least worthy of one of the last three spots in the AP poll.

Ohio State - The Buckeyes' full team is good enough to be ranked**

Ok, how can you expect a team that is missing one of its best offensive lineman, its best and only proven wide receiver, and its leading rusher from last year to win in a convincing fashion this early in the season.  

Young players and new starters need to learn how to gel, the offensive kinks need to be worked out, and meltdowns are going to be a fact of life while the quarterback spot gets sorted out.

Ohio State isn't a top-10 team, but a strong defense and high talent level make this at least a fringe top-25 team.

The beauty*** of college football is that there are no right or wrong answers, at least outside of head to head match ups --- but even those can be wrong in a larger sense of the season.  

Was Stanford a better team when it upset USC in 2007?  Maybe on the day the teams played, but not overall.

 Was Michigan a worse team that Appalachian State?  Most likely not.  The Wolverines had the talent to win that game nine out of ten times.  However, they only play 'em once.  Everything else is just hubris and semantics.

The whole world may be a stage, but the college football world is a courtroom.

The winner is just the guy with the best argument.

Join us next week as there are actual games of consequence between teams with national ranks and Big Ten title implications.  No gimmicks required.

*(The royal we)

**(I meant what I said about wild arguments.  Hang on.)

***(And by beauty, of course I mean the thing that frustrates you so much that you pull your hair out, pace a lot, and develop an alcohol problem over.  Hint, it's also called the BCS.)