Big Ten Football Week 4: Saturday Selections and Keys to the Game

Coming into the final week of non-conference play, the Big Ten contenders still have a lot of questions to answer about their players and teams. Next weekend the conference title race will find some frontrunners with Nebraska traveling to Wisconsin and Michigan State visiting Ohio State.

In order to be ready for those games, this week will be crucial, especially for the Spartans and Buckeyes. Last week the picks rebounded to 10–2, which pushes the season record to 28–8.  This will be the last opportunity to hit double digit wins, so let's jump right in to the ten Big Ten games this Saturday.

Central Michigan at Michigan State

This is not the 2009 Central Michigan team that upset Michigan State and went 12–2. This Chippewas team has been blown out by Kentucky and Western Michigan, and their offense cannot generate much running or passing.

An angry Michigan State team is not what the Chippewas were hoping to see this week, yet that is exactly what they must deal with. Another shutout could be on the docket for the Spartans if the defense plays better than last weekend.

The key to the game will be if Central Michigan can contain receiver B.J. Cunningham, who is Kirk Cousins's favorite target. They will not.

Michigan State wins by 30.

San Diego State at Michigan

Brady Hoke will get one more shot to say goodbye to all the players he left in San Diego for the greener pastures of Ann Arbor this winter. Although San Diego State is undefeated and knocked off a good Washington State team last weekend, there is nobody who knows how to put together a game plan against this team like Hoke.

Michigan has thrived with the running game, but it is mostly generated by quarterback Denard Robinson rather than running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith. That needs to change, but the Aztecs have been gashed by two running quarterbacks already this season. Even if the brakes are put on, Robinson could have another huge week running the ball.

The key to the game will be how Michigan's defense plays against the Aztecs defense. Running back Ronnie Hillman is a steady back who wears defenses out over the course of a game, much like some Big Ten running backs. Michigan needs to stop Hillman to show enough growth to stay with Big Ten offenses in the coming weeks.

Michigan wins by 10.

Eastern Michigan at Penn State

Eastern Michigan played strong against Michigan for a half last week before suffering their first loss, while the Nittany Lions escaped Philadelphia with a narrow win over Temple. The problem for both teams has been offense, and especially a lack of passing offense.

Penn State will once again rely on Silas Redd and the backup running backs to generate most of the offense, no matter who is taking the snaps at quarterback. It is painfully clear that this side of the offense will need to carry the Lions through the relatively easy opening five conference games.

The key to this game will be whether Matt McGloin can continue his solid play from last week to grab the starting job heading into conference play. There's little doubt Penn State wins the game, but what they really need to do is find a starting quarterback.

Penn State wins by 24.

Louisiana Monroe at Iowa

James Vandenberg won the hearts of Iowa fans by avoiding the 1–2 start in the historic comeback against Pittsburgh last weekend. This weekend the Hawkeyes will need to avoid a letdown against a good Warhawks defense.

Louisiana Monroe has played against Florida State and TCU already, so the Hawkeyes will not intimidate the Warhawks. However, the Warhawks offense will find the sledding tough against the hard–hitting Iowa defense.

The key to the game will be whether the ULM defensive line can continue to get into the backfield and stuff the running game. Vandenberg has had plenty of time to throw so far, but we do not know how he will handle more pocket pressure if that happens this week. Iowa has only turned the ball over three times so far and thus should be able to handle any additional pressure.

Iowa wins by 31.

Colorado at Ohio State

If the Toledo struggles were adversity, then Ohio State did not deal well with adversity in a lifeless 18-point loss at Miami last weekend. Interim coach Luke Fickell looked lost on the sidelines and the quarterbacks managed only 13 passing yards on two completions before the final 30 seconds of the game. Now there is real adversity to overcome, but how will the Buckeyes respond?

Thankfully the Buckeyes have one more effective tune up at home before conference play begins to figure out some of the problems on offense. Colorado does not have the talented offensive line and quick running backs that Miami used to leap out to a 14-point lead last weekend. Without a 14-point hole to worry about, the Buckeyes will continue to develop a run-heavy offense with Jordan Hall, Jamaal Berry and Carlos Hyde.

The key to the game will be whether new starting quarterback Braxton Miller can avoid the turnovers from last week and therefore keep the starting job. Ohio State is building for the future, but they will turn back to steady Joe Bauserman if Miller stumbles.

Ohio State wins by 18.

Western Michigan at Illinois

The Illini have struggled in the past with sustained success, which might explain why a win this weekend would be the first 4-0 start since 1951. Western Michigan is more than capable of winning this game, and Ron Zook will need to have the Illini on high alert to avoid the upset following the big win against Arizona State.

Despite being blown out by a couple of big defensive plays against Michigan, the Broncos offense has been highly effective with big runs from Jordan White and a good passing offense led by quarterback Alex Carder. Expect the Illini defense to employ the same strategy from a week ago to dominate the defensive front and try to force Carder into mistakes.

The key to the game will be whether Nathan Scheelhaase and the Illinois offense can do a better job running the ball to set up play action passes. Scheelhaase is already a little dinged up, but he has proven to be a tough competitor who plays through minor injuries to continue running the ball well. That will continue to happen in this game.

Illinois wins by 10.

South Dakota at Wisconsin

Should the Badgers even play their starters for more than a quarter? We have seen that Wisconsin can dominate lesser competition in the first three weeks, and there is absolutely no reason to show anything you want to use against the Cornhuskers next weekend. Thus, the starters should be pulled early in this one.

South Dakota is driven by the running game. Running back Chris Ganious and quarterback Dante Warren will try to continue their success against the Badgers defense, but any traction may not be gained until the second half when the starters are resting.

The key to this game is whether enough Wisconsin fans can tolerate sitting through another boring cupcake game to rock the stadium during "Jump Around" at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Seriously. A yawn of a September will lead into the biggest regular season conference game next weekend.

Wisconsin wins by 41.

North Dakota State at Minnesota

Under Tim Brewster, this is exactly the type of game the Golden Gophers would overlook and struggle to win, or perhaps even lose. After breaking through with a first win against a good Miami Ohio team last weekend, Jerry Kill will need to prove that the Gophers can stay consistent to beat this mediocre FCS team.

The Bison have great statistics and a 2–0 start, but those statistics were racked up against weaker competition. The Golden Gophers may have serious problems in the defensive backfield, but Minnesota should be able to use better athletes to shut down the Bison offense.

The key to the game will be whether the Gophers can find a running game that does not involve quarterback Marqueis Gray. Look for running back Donnell Kirkwood to be fed plenty of carries today to try and jump start that side of the offense. It will work this week, but it needs to work next month for Minnesota to be relevant in the Big Ten.

Minnesota wins by 14.

Indiana at North Texas

At the end of Saturday, the final two Big Ten teams to play actually leave their home fields for final games before conference play. The Hoosiers travel to winless North Texas this week to try and get back to .500 on the season.

The Mean Green have surrendered 559 yards per game, which is good enough to rank last in FBS football. Indiana is the worst team they will have played to date, but the Mean Green is just so bad against the run that Indiana's weaknesses will not matter.

The key to the game will be whether Indiana can generate any pass rush and turnovers on defense when faced with an inferior offensive line. Taking small steps forward is the key to moderate success in Kevin Wilson's first season as coach, and a first road win in a game like this will keep some positive momentum going before the tough slate of conference games.

Indiana wins by 17.

Nebraska at Wyoming

Laramie might seem like a world away for most Big Ten fans, but the road trip is not too long for Cornhuskers fans, who will load up the stadium in Wyoming to make this like a home game. Wyoming is undefeated and confident heading into this game, but even the Cowboys know this will be a tough assignment to keep the winning ways going.

Wyoming is a young team and that inexperience has shown in the defensive secondary. Although Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead will look to run the ball first, Martinez should still have one of his best performances passing the ball against this defense. Barring a surprising number of turnovers, Nebraska will blow this game open quickly.

The key to the game will be keeping Martinez healthy for the big game against Wisconsin next weekend. Nebraska will not pull the starters as quickly as Wisconsin, and Martinez faces a Wyoming defensive line that has generated a lot of pressure thus far on opposing quarterbacks.

The only loss that could happen to the Cornhuskers is an injury, but Pelini should be able to get Martinez out of the game early enough for that to not be a problem.

Nebraska wins by 31.

If these picks hold to form, it will be the first time in history that the Big Ten conference wins every game on the schedule by double-digit margins. Perhaps a couple of these games end up being closer than expected, but nothing short of a 10-0 weekend should be expected from the conference this weekend. Next week, conference play begins with a bang, so enjoy the easy games this weekend while they last.