SEC West Showdown: Rising Tide Will Roll Over Razorbacks

The appetizer portion of the season is officially over for Alabama on Saturday when Arkansas storms into Tuscaloosa looking to avenge last season’s 24-20 loss in which they gave up 17 unanswered points in the second half.  The stakes are high once again because the loser is likely out of the conference race.   

Pitting strength against strength, this game will match the offensive genius of Arkansas Head Coach Bobby Petrino against the defensive brilliance of Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban.  The chess match between these two masterminds will be epic. 

Here are three questions surrounding the game that should determine the outcome.

Which quarterback can play with composure?

Alabama quarterback A.J McCarron has been steady in his first year guiding the Tide offense.  With Arkansas likely focusing on stopping Tide running back Trent Richardson, the opportunity to have a breakout game is within reach.  McCarron’s confidence will rise if he can hook up on a big play with Marquis Maze so expect for offensive coordinator Jim McElwain to get these two into a rhythm quickly. If they get hot early, Arkansas may be in for long day. 

Confronting a fierce defense and a hostile crowd, Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is about to receive a cruel baptism into life on the road in the SEC.  Looking fantastic while padding stats against vastly inferior opponents is one thing, but now he’s walking into a vicious snake pit. Saban’s nasty blend of disguised coverages and blitz packages is going to make Wilson miserable all afternoon.   

Advantage:  Alabama

Which defense can stop the run?

Allowing just 170 yards and six points per game, Alabama’s defense has been suffocating again this season.   Courtney Upshaw and Dont’a Hightower are exceptional linebackers that refuse to allow opponents to generate any type of offense against the Tide.  The defense may not stop the Razorbacks’ high flying offense, but they will slow it down considerably. 

This is probably the best defense Petrino has had at Arkansas. Like Alabama, there is an abundance of talent in every position.  The strength is the linebackers.  Jerry Franklin, Ross Rasner and Alonzo Highsmith are formidable, and their ability to contain Richardson is vital. If they can make the Tide more one-dimensional, the Razorbacks best shot at winning the game is to make Alabama more one-dimensional.  Unfortunately, the loss of standout defensive end Jake Bequette will only make it more difficult for the Razorbacks to put pressure on McCarron.

Advantage:  Alabama

Who will be better on third down?

Points and yards won’t be flowing freely in this game so getting into manageable third down situations will be critical to winning the game.

Everyone knows that Alabama can run the ball, but they have to be willing to throw the ball on first down if they want to keep the chains moving.  Arkansas is going to load up the box, and force McCarron to make plays with his arm. Look for the Tide to take chances to open up the field, and then use Richardson to plow through the Razorbacks’ heart. 

Arkansas can have some success if Petrino is willing stay patient when things are not going well. He has to stay committed to running the ball to maintain balance on offense. If he abandons the ground game, the Tide will feast on Wilson. 

Advantage:  Alabama

Defense wins championships, and this definitely favors the Tide.  Both teams will struggle offensively.  In the end, Saban will get the victory and stay on path to earn his third BCS title. Alabama 27-21.