Fantasy Football: Week 13 Preview, Part One

Well, the holiday week is upon us here, with Thanksgiving being tomorrow. Plenty of time for all of us to sit back and think about what we are thankful for. Personally, I'm thankful for food on the table, a job in this tough economy, the ability to write about something I really enjoy, and a weekend filled with good friends, family, and football.

Everyone enjoy their Turkey Day! Let's get to the first set of games for the week.

Tennessee at Detroit

Who to Start: Kerry Collins, Justin Gage, Brandon Jones, Bo Scaife, LenDale White, Chris Johnson

Who to Sit: Every single Lion. I'm not even high on Calvin Johnson

What to Expect: It's rare that I'll actually let any one of us at the 'Table sit back and tell you not to start a stud. Yet, here we are.

The Titans defense has been good in all phases of the game, and they simply don't give up big yards or many touchdowns. Sure, you could see Calvin Johnson get into the end zone during garbage time, but Tennessee is going to come out to prove a point.

The pressure of the undefeated season is off, but they now need to prove that they aren't a fluke.

They'll take the pain out on the Lions. They're one of the best against the run, so I'm not using any Lions running back. They're tough against the pass, so Culpepper sits my bench. They don't give up touchdowns period, so I'm looking to keep Johnson down too. Just a bad team.

Tennessee fans and owners of their players should be smiling. Start them all. The Lions are giving up over two passing touchdowns a game in the last three weeks. I'll take those odds and start Kerry Collins, who should throw for two and hit 260 yards without a mistake. Gage and Jones make fine starts, as both will put up big yards.

I like Scaife as a tight end play this week because of the defense he's going against. This type of play won't hurt you here.

You start both Tennessee running backs. They'll eat up this weaker defense the same way every other decent running back has.

Sleeper Pickup: Jones. He's scoring regularly, and when he doesn't find the end zone, he's still giving you 60 yards at minimum.

Seattle at Dallas

Who to Start: Bobby Engram, John Carlson, Matt Hasselbeck, Roy Williams, Jason Witten
 
Who to Sit: Julius Jones, Maurice Morris
 
What to Expect: This game could be better than we think. At least I hope so, or both early Thanksgiving games could be done by halftime.

I've spent a lot of time watching the Dallas secondary. They just don't seem to have the depth or talent right now to cover anyone. I'm not saying Hasselbeck is going to tear them up, but you could do worse than the Seattle quarterback this week.

His receivers are getting healthy, and he looked more comfortable in the offense against Washington last week.

I'm keeping Carlson active, and expecting him to find the end zone. On top of that, I think Bobby Engram is in for a day here. This is where a Seattle receiver really proves their worth. You need to beat Dallas through the air; they've been tough against the ground attack.

That in mind, I'm not starting Jones or Morris this week. Morris is the better play if you're looking for one, but I think we may see Hasselbeck through 35-40 times.

Seattle doesn't do well when they travel east, but this isn't as far as they've had to come for other games. I still think you keep all Cowboys active. Romo, Owens, Witten, and Barber are all strong plays, as usual.

The only stretch here would be Williams. At home, against Seattle, I'll use him as a flex option or WR3. He's going to get chances this week, especially after the big week by Owens last week.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Engram. It's a feeling, but I think he finds the end zone and has 75 yards.

Arizona at Philadelphia

Who to Start: Kurt Warner, Steve Breaston, Tim Hightower, DeSean Jackson, Hank Baskett, Kevin Curtis
 
Who to Sit: J.J. Arrington, L.J. Smith
 
What to Expect: I think we'll see some offense here.

Look, I won't tell you what to do with McNabb. If you don't have a better option, you need to start him. On one of my teams, I have McNabb and Eli Manning. I'm going with Manning, simply because I'm not confident in McNabb's ability right now. He's turning the ball over too often and is going to be part of an offense that has two injured running backs.

I think his receivers should, overall, be fine. I'd play Jackson, specifically because he's a possession-type guy. I like Baskett for a deep touchdown, but it may only be on two or three catches. Curtis is getting more play, and in 12-team leagues I wouldn't hesitate to use him in a WR3 position.

We haven't heard that Westbrook won't play, so start him unless we hear otherwise. Stick with your studs theory.

On the Arizona side, they get a team that has been soundly beaten through the air and ground, and will be playing with, at best, an injured Asante Samuel. Kurt Warner and company are going to make this fun to watch.

Start your studs with Boldin and Fitzgerald, but don't sleep on Breaston. We saw last week that he is making enough plays to be fantasy worthy in almost every format. I'm starting Hightower here as well.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Baskett. It's a hunch play. If you have better options than your Eagles receivers, I'd use them. If you need one, Baskett will fit the bill.

San Francisco at Buffalo

Who to Start: Shaun Hill, Isaac Bruce, Josh Reed
 
Who to Sit: Trent Edwards
 
What to Expect: I wish I knew what Trent Edwards was going to show up.

Edwards accounted for four touchdowns last week against Kansas City, arguably playing for his job after a series of poor outings. I'm taking the conservative approach and keeping him reserved.

I'll advocate for using Evans and Reed, though, as they have been consistent targets of late and certainly producing as such.

The big strength of the Bills' offense is in the running game. Marshawn Lynch is coming off two straight strong performances, and he should be a good bet for a third. 

With the 49ers being the opponent, Fred Jackson is an upside play in deeper leagues as a flex. He's still getting about ten carries a game and is an adequate part of the third down package to make it worth the play.

The 49ers aren't playing as poorly on offense as you might think. Shaun Hill is running the offense well, and the Bills secondary has been beaten up. Hill's performances make him a decent option for teams that don't like what they see for their regular starter. He should throw for two and hit 260 yards in this one.

Isaac Bruce will be the primary target, and he is certainly a good option. He's coming off a 125-yard game last week and will be in line for similar numbers against these Bills. Frank Gore is a must start in every sense.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hill. Something about his last three weeks makes you think he could be a guy to ride heading into the playoffs against a weak NFC West.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Who to Start: Baltimore Def., Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton
 
Who to Sit: Joe Flacco, All your Bengals
 
What to Expect: Cincinnati's pass defense has been solid for most of the season, and has taken Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's passing attack out of the game, creating plenty of turnovers.

That in mind, I'm not sold on Flacco as a starting quarterback this week. He makes plays, but this is a defense that thrives on a quarterback making mistakes. If you normally start him, go for it. We do see that the Bengals have placed a starting corner on IR this week. 

Reaching to use him because it's against Cincinnati isn't, however, the way to go.

Clayton and Mason should be fine. Mason is a better play, but Clayton should be owned in 12-team leagues, and any league that gives big-play bonuses. He has that ability to come up with a 50-yard catch almost too regularly. Mason is your most targeted, and he should be in lineups.

Avoid Baltimore's running game. It's a great matchup, I just don't know who is getting the ball.

We'll keep this short and sweet on the Bengals. The Ravens are a top-five defense against the run and the pass. Outside of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, you don't want to play with anyone on this offense. No one.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Clayton. Every year, I like this guy as a sleeper, and he finally seems to be doing something.

Indianapolis at Cleveland

Who to Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison, Jerome Harrison, Jamal Lewis
 
Who to Sit: Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn (injured)
 
What to Expect: Welcome to the Peyton Manning Show!

The Browns, on average, are giving up 225 yards per game through the air. Manning has beaten the average given up by his last four opponents by an average of 25 percent. I'll take my chances here that he throws for 290 yards to go with three touchdowns. 

Anthony Gonzalez, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark should all enjoy the fun and games. I wouldn't hesitate to play Harrison in this case either, simply because he always has that chance to find the end zone, and he's being targeted more often. Manning seems out to make a point that his buddy isn't too old.

You can run on the Browns as well, and that means good times for Addai. I'm not starting Rhodes in this one, but deeper leagues that give points for receptions and need him as a flex should be ok. Not great, but ok.

Cleveland will be without Brady Quinn, as it looks like the Cleveland quarterback is done for the year. That puts Derek Anderson back under center. With the curveballs at quarterback coming left and right from Cleveland, let's leave that situation alone. I'm starting Edwards and Winslow, but that's about it there.

The running game has been pretty good, with both Lewis and Harrison seeing carries. You beat Indy by controlling the clock and running the football. Look for Cleveland to use that mantra. Both these backs are decent options against the Indy defense.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Harrison. He's taking a few of Lewis' carries, and his speed could be a critical asset against the Colts. I like him to find the end zone to go with 60 yards.

Carolina at Green Bay

Who to Start: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver
 
Who to Sit: Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Brandon Jackson
 
What to Expect: That the running games will be prevalent.

The Packers have had problems all season when it comes to stopping the run. Their physical secondary has kept many passers at bay (discounting the atrocity against the Saints).

I'd look for the Panthers to go back to looking to beat the Packers on the ground, especially with Stewart and Williams running the ball. Both are solid starts.

I'm avoiding Delhomme.

I know he's not as good as Brees, nor does he have the same type of weapons to use. Start Steve Smith, but don't look to use Muhammad. A secondary receiver against a tough secondary isn't going to find many openings. Not the best of matchups for anyone involved in the passing game there.

For the Packers, expect a heavy dose of Ryan Grant. Grant has looked very good running the ball, and Rodgers is suddenly clicking with all his receivers again. That makes the running game even more effective than it normally would be.

Carolina is a top-10 defense against the pass, so Grant will need to have a good game. I say 90 with a score.

For Rodgers, it's going to be harder than it was against the Saints. He should still throw for two, and I like him to use Nelson and Lee effectively in this one. Greg Jennings could be in for a tough matchup at the primary spot, but the secondary options line up in the favor of Green Bay. Driver, Nelson, and Lee would all be fine. 

Use Nelson in deeper formats, but Lee and Driver can be active in all leagues.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Nelson. He has some solid opportunity, and this one lines right up for him.

Miami at St. Louis

Who to Start: Chad Pennington, Ted Ginn, Davone Bess, Ricky Williams,
 
Who to Sit: All your Rams, Greg Camarillo
 
What to Expect: You would think that I would come down off the Dolphins proverbial horse. Not hardly.

This is a dream matchup for the Miami offense. Sure, they have lost Camarillo, but Bess showed that he can provide the same type of skills. He's a deep-league flex option for most teams, but this is a good one for him. Ginn is the better play, and the running game is even better for Miami, but Bess finds the end zone in this one as well.

I'm playing Ginn in every league. He's a playmaker that is getting the ball on the run, pass, and return. He always has a chance to break off a big one. Pennington will be a solid quarterback, look for him to throw for two and crack 285 yards. He's had that kind of season.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are both starts in my book. Brown should be viewed as an RB2, and I think this is the week he reasserts himself as the dominant force in the Miami running game. Williams continues to become more a part of the package, and his use at the goal line and in third-down situations makes him a flex play.

For the Rams, look elsewhere. There is no Randy Moss on this team, so no one to exploit any weaknesses in the Miami secondary. They can get away with single-coverage on almost all the Rams plays.

That will make it tough for the running attack as well. Steven Jackson will be a game-time decision, meaning another day for Antonio Pittman. I don't think he does well enough to warrant consideration.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Bess. He's going to be who they turn to with Camarillo out.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Who to Start: Lance Moore, Jeff Garcia, Antonio Bryant, Warrick Dunn, Pierre Thomas
 
Who to Sit: Devery Henderson, Deuce McAllister
 
What to Expect: The Saints put up quite the performance last week against the Packers, a team that does well against the pass.

This week, that shouldn't change all that much. Bush is going to be a game-time decision. In my mind, I hold him back. See what this week brings, as the Bucs can stop the run very well. Pierre Thomas will be the way to go this time, as he'll still likely get the goal line carries and make it worth the play.

Brees spreads the ball to any open receiver. In the past few games, those receivers have been Billy Miller, Shockey, Moore, and Colston. Moore and Colston are definites this week, with Shockey being the better tight end play. I'll keep all active if I have them in any league.

For Tampa, look for them to exploit a weaker pass defense. Jeff Garcia can throw the football. Look for a big game out of Antonio Bryant, as he should be the primary target. I'll even look to Ike Hilliard in a pinch for this one.

Keep Warrick Dunn active, as Ryan Grant was able to put up good numbers against this same defense.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Moore. He's targeted consistently and has scored four weeks in a row. Just sayin'.

Happy Turkey Day! Back on Friday with the rest of the games.