Conference Realignment: 8 Ways Apparent Realignment Affects College Basketball

Certain

Pitt and Syracuse will leave Big East for ACC

Texas A&M will leave Big 12 for SEC

TCU will leave Mountain West for Big East

Possible

UConn may leave Big East for ACC

Iowa State and Baylor may leave Big 12 for Big East

Big 12 may cease to exist (if Oklahoma/Texas find new homes)

Unlikely (for the moment)

Pac-12 states it does not plan to expand again

Where Things Stand Now

Certain

Pitt and Syracuse will leave Big East for ACC

Texas A&M will leave Big 12 for SEC

TCU will leave Mountain West for Big East

Possible

UConn may leave Big East for ACC

Iowa State and Baylor may leave Big 12 for Big East

Big 12 may cease to exist (if Oklahoma/Texas find new homes)

Unlikely (for the moment)

Pac-12 states it does not plan to expand again

8. The Big 12 Will Have To Scramble for New Members

Assume for the moment that the Big 12 (which will be down to nine teams in 2012-13 if nothing changes) adds enough schools to survive. Even if the conference can bring in some new blood, it’s already taken a substantial hit on the basketball court.

Texas A&M is one of the fastest-rising programs in the country, and with the Aggies gone to the SEC, none of the plausible replacements (Air Force, say, or Boise State) will make a dent in the basketball landscape.

The fortunes of Big 12 programs outside of Lawrence have tended to swing wildly in recent years (see Oklahoma’s descent from national power to sub-.500 team). Losing a consistent team like the Aggies only makes the conference more volatile…and more vulnerable to self-destructing down the road.

7. The Mountain West Is on the Decline

The Mountain West has never been a football power, but in basketball the conference has earned a reputation as one of the best mid-majors. With its top programs disappearing, though, that reputation is in serious jeopardy.

No school has done more for the MWC than Utah, but the Utes are in the Pac-12 now. With BYU gone to the West Coast Conference (in basketball), the Mountain West has lost two of its most consistent NCAA tournament teams.

San Diego State is on the rise, and UNLV and New Mexico are candidates to keep the MWC relevant, but the shrinking conference will have a tough time landing many at-large bids in the near future.

6. Kansas Could Become Just Another Team

No team in the Big 12 has more basketball tradition than Kansas. As such, no team has more to lose from the potential dissolution of the conference.

The Jayhawks’ unimpressive football resume will make it tough for them to control their own destiny if the Big 12 goes under, but wherever they land, they won’t be the big dogs of basketball anymore.

Even if they end up in, say, the football-happy Big Ten, Kansas will be treated as latecomers to a conference with established hoops powers like Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Kansas isn’t in any danger of becoming an NIT program overnight, but going from the cream of the Big 12 to a rat race elsewhere will be a bitter pill to swallow.

5. Some Basketball-First Schools Will Luck Out

Because all the decisions about realignment are being driven by football money, schools that concentrate more on basketball (or only have basketball as a Division I sport) could luck into more favorable situations.

Providence and St. John’s, for example, get an easier Big East road with Pitt and Syracuse leaving. On the flip side, though, if the Big East’s weakness in football leads to the breakup of that conference, the Friars and Red Storm could be left out in the cold.

One team in an especially favorable position could be UNLV. With BYU and Utah gone, the Rebels have a stronger hoops tradition than any remaining MWC school.

With a little luck, Dave Rice could build the UNLV program back to something resembling the success it enjoyed under Jerry Tarkanian.

4. The ACC Will Become Too Good for Its Own Good

Last year’s Big East set a record with 11 teams in the NCAA tournament. While UConn, of course, took home the title, most of the conference’s representatives weren’t nearly so lucky.

Aside from the Huskies, only Marquette even made the Sweet 16, and that took a win over fellow Big East power Syracuse. As strong as the conference was in the regular season, the teams that survived the Big East gauntlet didn’t have much left for March Madness.

Once Pitt and Syracuse are gone (with UConn potentially next), the Big East is unlikely to repeat that outcome down the line. The ACC, however, could be well on its way to taking over a similar role.

Many traditional conference powers have been down in recent years, but with UNC, Duke, Pitt and Syracuse, four ACC teams will expect top-four seeds every season. Now imagine what happens when programs like Georgia Tech and Wake Forest get back on track to join them.

The ACC will have a good shot at setting a record of its own for NCAA tournament participants, but what they’ll do once they get there is far less of a certainty.

3. Fewer Regional Conferences Will Mean More National Recruiting

Changes in conference allegiance will provide increased exposure to new fanbases, a situation that could change the recruiting reach of top-tier schools.

Syracuse, for example, might have an easier time luring the next Carmelo Anthony from the prep school powers in Virginia now that the Orange will be facing UVA and Virginia Tech in conference play.

By the same token, the rest of the ACC can extend its reach northwards now that Boston College isn’t the only token representative beyond the Maryland border.

More broadly, every power conference except the shrinking Big 12 has expanded its geographic footprint. The biggest such move will likely be in the Big East, where TCU and (possibly) Baylor will give the conference a foothold in Texas.

2. The Big 12 May Go the Way of the Dodo

The Pac-12 may not be looking to expand at present, but the Big 12 can scarcely feel safe with only nine teams on board after this season.

If Texas or Oklahoma (or both) manages to leverage its football success to join a more secure conference, the Big 12 could collapse the way the old Southwestern Conference did.

If the Big 12 does fall, programs like Missouri or Kansas State could suffer for it, finding themselves wedged into geographically unfavorable conferences where they may struggle to compete at a high level.

Oklahoma State could face an especially tough road, as they’re looking to preserve their rivalry with the Sooners, regardless of where the latter program goes. Whatever new conference OU joins, the Cowboys would likely face a much deeper talent pool than they've gone up against in the Big 8 or Big 12.

1. The Major Conferences Could Freeze out Everyone Else

With the Pac-12 standing pat for the time being, the potential rise of the super conference has been put on hold. Nevertheless, the threat still exists that consolidation among the six major conferences could change the balance of power in basketball.

If the BCS football schools realign to create four giant conferences (most likely eliminating the Big East and Big 12), it’s hard to imagine those conferences being satisfied with a mere one automatic bid to basketball’s NCAA tournament.

More automatic bids for the power conferences, though, would put a serious damper on the mid-major upset opportunities that make the tournament such a great event to watch.

A football-based super conference alignment would also squeeze out the basketball-only schools of the Big East, leaving some of the game’s greatest programs (Georgetown and Villanova among them) without an obvious home.

Finally, and most devastatingly, some have speculated that the super conferences could opt to form their own postseason tournament, eliminating the risk of being embarrassed by the Santa Claras and Princetons of the world but also relegating the actual NCAA tournament to second-class citizen status.

It’s not a high-probability scenario, but it’s hard to imagine a worse outcome for college hoops fans.