Fantasy Football Week 3: Start David Nelson over Percy Harvin

There are a lot of similarities between poker and fantasy football. In both, you generally want to put your best foot forward. You want to play the best hands and the best draws. You want to play the best players and the best matchups.

Sometimes this means taking a chance. Or many chances. As they say at the poker table: You can't win anything that you don't put in the middle. So you have to take some chances. Call them "calculated risks" if that makes you feel better.

Fantasy Football is every bit as tricky as poker. Both games are matchup dependent. Not many owners consider this aspect when playing Fantasy Football. Examine your opponent's team. Does he have a good team? Good matchups?

If it looks like you're up against a team that should beat you soundly, swing for the fences. If it looks like you are up against a team you should beat, play it a bit safer. These are fundamental concepts, whether in poker or in fantasy football.

If all you think that you need is to play it safe, do it. Start your studs and/or your most consistent fantasy options. But if you need to dig a bit deeper, checkout some of these options:

1. BRANDON JACOBS (@ EAGLES) It's really not a secret that the Eagles can't stop the run or contain the TE. The fact that the Eagles just shook up their LB core (moving Jamar Chaney to MLB) just acknowledges their weakness. I'm starting Jacobs over Mark Ingram or Daniel Thomas in standard leagues.
2. JULIO JONES (@ BUCS) The Bucs might be able to contain Roddy White. And possibly Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. But they won't have an answer for Julio Jones. I"m starting Jones over Devery Henderson, Eric Decker, Denairus Moore or Plaxico Burress this week, especially in PPR leagues.
3. DAVID NELSON (vs PATRIOTS) Don't expect the Bills to win this game. Don't expect Steve Johnson or Fred Jackson to continue their elite fantasy production this week, either. But David Nelson will now be featured as the slot receiver in the Bills offense. That's Ryan Fitzpatrick's safety valve. I'd start Nelson over Percy Harvin, Eric Decker, Denarius Moore, Mike Thomas or Mike Sims-Walker in PPR leagues.
4. AJ GREEN (vs 49ERS) Did you happen to see what Miles Austin did to the 49ers secondary in Week 2? The 49ers can stop the run, but their secondary is woeful. Look for AJ Green to have another excellent week. I'm starting him over Robert Meachem, Mario Manningham, Eric Decker, Denarius Moore and Dwayne Bowe in PPR leagues.
5. JONATHAN STEWART (vs JAGUARS) Despite the contract handed out to DeAngelo Williams, Stewart has looked like the Panthers best RB. The fact that Stewart caught eight passes for 100 yards last week only adds to his appeal. Look for Stewart to post RB2 numbers in standard leagues this week. I'm starting him over Shonn Greene, Mark Ingram, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee or James Starks, in standard leagues.
6. RYAN MATTHEWS (vs CHIEFS) You're starting Matthews in all leagues. He's looked better than Tolbert running the ball, and his pass-protection skills have improved. That will keep him on the field more often. Look for Matthews to score at least one TD and total over 150 yards—minimum.
7. FRED DAVIS (vs COWBOYS) What will it take to make people believe in Fred Davis? He's always excelled when filling in for Cooley. Now he's permanently filling in for Cooley. And he's been a top-5 fantasy TE in all leagues so far. He could keep this up. I'm starting Davis over Dallas Clark, Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels or Vernon Davis.

Not sure if that's bold enough for you. Personally, I love the bold flavor. Feel free to tell me all about what I got wrong and what I got right on the Twitter.