NFL Picks Week 3: Why the Oakland Raiders Will Cover vs. the New York Jets

Don’t jump on the Jets bandwagon just yet.

One miracle win and one blowout doesn’t mean this Jet team doesn’t have some serious flaws. There are multiple reasons why you should consider taking the Oakland Raiders +3.5 at home (the spread is courtesy of Covers.com).

Look-Ahead Spot for New York

It happens all the time in the NFL.

Teams look through the schedule and have certain games circled. For the Jets, this is the first of three consecutive road games, with trips to Baltimore and New England on deck.

Clearly they’re more focused on two of the teams that beat them in 2010, not a Raiders team that has failed to impress in two games.

Oakland hasn’t done anything to grab their attention, and expect New York to enter Sunday lacking the proper intensity.

Considering the Jets have to make the cross-country flight after being at home for the last month (having not played an away game since Week 1 of the preseason), you have a team that is going to struggle in a hostile environment early on.

The Oakland Offense Will Move the Ball

Running back Darren McFadden is a budding star in the NFL and is running behind quietly one of the top O-lines in the game after two weeks.

The Jets defense against the pass is terrific, but they haven’t shut down the run game like they used to in the past.

Expect McFadden to control the time of possession battle and keep this one a tight affair till the very end.

Rare Situation With Incredible Success

Sometimes it’s hard to overlook a certain trend that proves true time-and-time again. Let me remind you of Week 2’s final scores:

Jets 32, Jags 3

Bills 38, Raiders 35

There is a trend with this specific situation that has been successful 84 percent of the time:

Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 1983.

With everything pointing in the Raiders direction…consider a play on the Raiders +3.5.