PGA Tour Championship: Players Outside the Top 5 with the Best Shot to Win

The Tour Championship is the last leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Only the top 30 players in the point standings are present this week to compete for the title.

While mathematically all them have a shot at the $10 million bonus awarded for winning the FedEx Cup, the higher the rank, the greater odds for winning it.

This is especially true for the top five players, who are guaranteed to win the FedEx Cup if they win the tournament this week.

Most of the talk building up to the Tour Championship has been about the top five in the standings—Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Matt Kuchar.

I will go on record and say that I think it's Luke Donald's tournament to lose—and as a consequence the FedEx Cup Title.

But while he is my favorite to win, and most experts pick the winner to be among the top five players, there are other players with a shot at winning the tournament. 

The chances of winning the FedEx Cup for any those players is based on them winning the Tour Championship and hoping for the stars (the players above them) to align in the exact position that will give them the title. 

Let's take a look at the players outside the top five with the best shot at winning.

Geoff Ogilvy

Tournaments: 20

Cuts Made: 13

Top 10's: 4

FedEx Cup Rank: 24

At the start of the playoffs he missed the cut at The Barclays, putting in serious jeopardy his chances of getting this far.

But a T25 at the Deustche Bank and his third-place finish last week moved him into the top 30 and the President's Cup International Team.

Last week he was the only player to shoot in the 60s in all four rounds. He is carrying some serious momentum to East Lake, and he can improve on his recent success.

While his chances at winning the Cup are slim, his shot at winning the tournament is very good.

Vijay Singh

Tournaments: 23

Cuts Made: 16

Top 10's: 5

FedEx Cup Ranking: 23

Singh is the only former FedEx Cup Champion competing this week. He also won this tournament back in 2002.

He has been battling back injuries for the past couple of years, but he received treatment in Germany during the summer and has done much better since.

Singh finished T4 at the Wyndham and T3 at the Barclays. Although his past two tournaments have been forgettable, he knows how to play here.

His game is suited for this course, and his experience on the big stage gives him a good chance to win here.

Adam Scott

Tournaments: 17

Cuts Made: 13

Top 10's: 6 (one win—WGC Bridgestone)

FedEx Cup Rank: 19

Scott is also another former winner of this tournament. He won here back in 2006, one year before the FedEx Cup started.

Since his T3 at the AT&T National, he has been playing solid golf, including his lone win of the year at Firestone.

He contended the first two rounds at the Deutsche Bank, and then his game fell off until last week's final round.

He got that good final round in the BMW Championship thanks to his good putting. That also gave him the win at the WGC. That could be his key to victory here.

Oh and by the way, he could also benefit from the fact that his caddie has been on the winning side of the Cup twice.

David Toms

Tournaments: 21

Cuts Made: 15

Top 10's: 7 (one win—Crowne Plaza Invitational)

FedEx Cup Rank: 16

Toms will most likely be the PGA Tour's Comeback Player of the Year with his good performance this year.

He won the Crowne Plaza Invitational the week after narrowly losing to K.J. Choi at the TPC in the first extra hole.

He must be riding high after finishing T10 at the BMW Championship and locking a spot in the President's Cup team, in addition to being awarded the Payne Stewart Award this week.

Toms is ranked third in GIR percentage and fifth in driving accuracy percentage this year on the PGA Tour. Those are two stats that could take him to win here this week.

He is no stranger to the big stage (he has a major win to his credit), and he has a great chance to win the tournament.

Phil Mickelson

Tournaments: 20

Cuts Made: 19

Top 10's: 6 (one win—Shell Houston Open)

FedEx Cup Rank: 14

Mickelson's year has been atypical to say the least.

Although he has a win this year, Mickelson has played well enough to make the playoffs but not well enough by his standards.

He did a remarkable charge in the final round of The Open to finish T2. But after that, he has been almost MIA.

He is a two-time winner of this tournament, including his last in 2009 over Tiger Woods—the only other player to win it twice.

Mickelson thrives when he has everything to win and certainly that is the case here. Add that to his previous success here, and he will be a player contending for the win on Sunday.

K.J. Choi

Tournaments: 21

Cuts Made: 17

Top 10's: 7 (one win—The Players Championship)

FedEx Cup Rank: 13

Choi is a dangerous player this weekend.

In 2008 he finished ninth here. Last year he finished T7, but if it weren't for his 74 third round, he could have contended for the win.

His win this year at the TPC was a remarkable finish over David Toms in an extra hole. After that win his second-place finish at the AT&T National was his only Top 10 until last week when he finished T10.

He will be looking to improve that finish last week, and he is another player whose experience and previous success here make him a contender for the win this week.

Nick Watney

Tournaments: 20

Cuts Made: 17

Top 10's: 9 (two wins—WGC Cadillac and AT&T National)

FedEx Cup Rank: 7

Last year, Watney was at five-over going into the weekend. He then finished T4, thanks for the most part to the 63 he shot in the third round.

He had a strong finish, and that seemed to carry over to his strong start of five straight top fives (including his win at the WGC Cadilac) to start 2011.

Watney finished first in the FedEx Cup point standings in the regular season this year and is fourth in scoring average on the PGA Tour.

Like Adam Scott, he contended for the first two rounds at the Deustche Bank and then started to fade until the last round of the BMW Championship.

He is sitting on top of a big performance and can deliver it this week.