NFL Picks Week 3: Why the Patriots Won't Cover the Spread vs. Bills

By now, the New England Patriots are used to being heavy favorites whenever they get to face the Buffalo Bills. Given the rut the Bills have been in over the last decade, the true wonder is why the oddsmakers even bother with a spread.

As such, it's no surprise the Patriots are favored over the Bills by nine points for this Sunday's clash at Ralph Wilson Stadium. That's just how things are.

But this year, things are a little different. Both the Pats and the Bills have won their first two games, and it seems there might be something special happening in Buffalo. Neither of Buffalo's wins have come cheap, as they demolished the Kansas City Chiefs 41-7 and then mounted a furious comeback to beat the Oakland Raiders 38-35. Don't look now, but they look like playoff contenders.

Obviously, it's hard to take that idea seriously at the moment, a point that is very much reflected by the spread. I admit, it's hard not to like the Patriots to win this game.

But they won't cover the spread. The Bills may not be for real, but Vegas apparently hasn't gotten the memo that they're not bad enough to be nine-point underdogs in their own house.

The first thing you have to consider, is how these two teams are constructed. We know all about Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, but the Bills can rack up the points as well. In fact, it is they who are the NFL's highest scoring team on the young season.

Because of that, it's going to be hard for the Pats to pull away from the Bills Sunday. With a little help from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in the first two weeks, the Bills are going to be able to keep pace.

After all, it's not like the Pats have any kind of defensive advantage. They've allowed 381 passing yards per game in their first two contests, a number that ranks second to last in the NFL. They have also let opposing quarterbacks complete better than 66 percent of their passes.

The other thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the fact that the Bills have the league's leading rusher on their side. That would be Fred Jackson, who has emerged as both a legitimate workhorse and a legitimate big-play threat. If he can help the Bills control the clock, the Patriots are going to be in for a frustrating afternoon.

Do the Patriots have enough offense to overcome all of Buffalo's weapons? You better believe it. I just don't think they have enough to run away and hide from the Bills.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 28