UFC Fight Night: Shields vs. Ellenberger Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

John HeinisSep 15, 2011

In the latest installment of UFC's Fight Night series, fans see a card headlined by a pivotal welterweight showdown between Jake Shields and Jake Ellenberger.

Whichever Jake comes out on top in this one is probably just a fight away from a title shot, even despite the fact that Jake Shields lost a title bout to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 129.

After approximately a 16-month layoff due to a serious eye injury, Alan Belcher makes his return to the Octagan to take on fight veteran Jason MacDonald.

In a featherweight showdown, Jonathan Brookins takes on Erik Koch in what should be an entertaining grappling affair.

At 185 pounds, Court McGee takes on South Korean prospect Dongi Yang in what is expected to be a good scrap in the middleweight division.

Bleacher Report's own Dwight Wakabayashi, Vince Carey, Jordy McElroy and myself, John Heinis, will be handling the predictions this time around.

Take a look inside to see who's going to win on the main card on Saturday night.

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

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John Heinis: MacDonald is another journeyman fighter who would never be on a UFC card if it wasn’t for free fight cards.

His record is 25-14, and his one magical win was when he choked Chris Leben out with a guillotine at UFC 66.

MacDonald’s win over Ed Herman in the fight before that looks a little but more impressive now in retrospect…I guess…but the athlete should not be a threat to Belcher.

Not like Belcher’s a world beater either, his biggest win is over Jorge Santiago, but he should be on a five fight win streak, right now as his split decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama was pretty controversial.

Belcher is also way more well rounded, being a solid Muay Thai-based striker with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

MacDonald is simply a BJJ guy who fights MMA, I’m guessing for the money. And while his skills on the mat are impressive, it’s not going to be enough because Belcher will be able to keep this one standing with ease…that is assuming he doesn'’t finish.

Which, I think he will. Also, two of the worse nicknames in MMA here, “The Athlete” and “The Talent”…talk about lacking originality.

Alan Belcher via second round TKO

Dwight Wakabayashi: Alan “The Talent” Belcher will be making his return to the UFC middleweight division after a 16-month layoff for eye surgery.

He will be going up against a resurging Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald in a classic battle of striker vs. grappler.

I see Belcher having a definite advantage in this fight but I don’t agree with most people’s opinion that he is way out of MacDonald’s league. He has more ways to win this fight and has the ability to knock out “The Athlete” or win by points with his crisp and well-rounded Muay Thai.

MacDonald really has one way to win this fight and it is to submit Belcher, and in the end I doubt that it will happen.

Alan Belcher via unanimous decision

Vince Carey: I thought Alan Belcher was well on his way to a UFC title shot before he got hurt last year, and even though he’ll have about 16 months worth of ring rust to work off, I think he’ll be fine here.

MacDonald is a tricky submission specialist, and he’s tapped out better guys on the ground than Belcher, but it’s hard to imagine Belcher letting the fight go to the ground.

On the feet Belcher has a clear advantage, and he has some serious power in everything he throws, but Macdonald has only been finished by strikes once in his career, which makes me doubt Belcher’s chance of a finish.

Blecher wins the fight handily, showing off some improved stand up and surviving a few tense moments on the ground.

Alan Belcher via unanimous decision

Jordy McElroy: After undergoing emergency eye surgery, Alan Belcher hopes to pick up where he left off a little over a year ago in his return bout against Jason MacDonald.

It’s hard not to like Belcher’s chances against MacDonald, who seems to be offered up as slaughter every time he steps foot in the UFC octagon.

MacDonald is a decent all-around veteran, but he simply isn’t on Belcher’s level at this point in his career. Belcher should perform surgery on the feet as MacDonald charges forward with unsuccessful takedown attempts.

Look for Belcher to pick up the first round TKO and reemerge as a potential contender for Anderson Silva’s middleweight title.

Alan Belcher by Round 1 TKO

Jonathan Brookins vs. Erk Koch

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John Heinis: Erik Koch is another young WEC prospect (22 years old), whose sole loss has come at the hands of Chad “Money” Mendes.

Koch is known for his crisp striking, but also has seven submission victories, so go figure.

Brookins also have 12 wins, but one ups Koch by having eight by way of submission.

I’d give Koch the edge in the looks department though, given that Brookins looks like Carrot Top if he shrunk and dyed his hair red.

Seriously though, Brookins won the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter based off his serious takedowns and rear naked choke.

Koch has better hands, and the BJJ aspect of the fight seems fairly even. However, Brookins wrestling will keep him out of harms way on the mat and he’ll do enough to grind out a close decision.

Jonathan Brookins via unanimous decision (29-28)

Dwight Wakabayashi: Fans have been waiting to see Brookins in action since he won TUF 12 over Michael Johnson. He was set to compete both on the UFC 129 card this past April and then again on the TUF 13 Finale in June but injuries have delayed his debut.

Brookins brings a fast, all around game but his main strengths are in his wrestling and control. His move down in weight will only help that.

Erik Koch made a very impressive debut in the UFC in March against Rafael Assuncao as a replacement for Manny Gamburyan. He knocked out Assuncao impressively in the first round.

Koch is a striker by his roots and will look to keep this one on the feet as much as possible. If he can keep the fight standing for the majority he should be able to take out Brookins.

Erik Koch via first Rd TKO

Vince Carey: Erik Koch might be the second best prospect in the featherweight division, right behind Chad Mendes.

His striking has looked off the charts in his last few fights, and his head kick finish of Raphael Assuncao back at UFC 128 was a thing of beauty.

Brookins has been inactive since December when he won TUF 12 at lightweight, which was impressive since he is obviously a natural featherweight.

Brookins had a tough time with the power of Michael Johnson back at the TUF finale, getting rocked on numerous occasions in the first round and I think his chin will give out on him in this one.

Erik Koch via third round TKO

Jordy McElroy: Outside of the main event, the vast majority of these bouts are being overlooked, but the featherweight scrap between Jonathan Brookins and Erik Koch has the potential to be something special.

Brookins, who defeated Michael Johnson in December 2010 to win Season 12 of the “Ultimate Fighter”, is looking to officially begin his UFC journey against Koch, who earned “Knockout of the Night” honors for his devastating first round finish of former top-10 featherweight Raphael Assuncao.

This bout represents a typical grappler versus striker match-up. Brookins will try to use his striking to close the distance and work takedowns from the clinch.

It’s going to be a tough effort for Brookins in securing takedowns and maintaining top position. Koch is incredibly scrappy in the transitions, and he can threaten Brookins in all areas of the fight.

At the end of this fight, some fans will surely be scratching their heads as the judges award Brookins a split decision.

Jonathan Brookins by split decision

Court McGee vs Dongi Yang

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John Heinis: What an interesting couple of names here. I actually literally mean the names and not the fighters’ attached to them, but McGee is actually pretty good.

He’s 13-1 with his sole loss being of the decision variety to Jeremy Horn back in 2007. Otherwise, McGee hasn’t really faced anyone of note, but he has 10 finishes and overall has just looked like a pretty well-rounded fighter.

Yang went 9-0 on the Japan circuit, but is 1-1 in the UFC so it’s tough to say exactly where the bar has been set for him.

Yang has some serious takedowns and heavy ground and pound, so the fight will be very interesting if the fight goes to the ground (McGee has seven wins via submission).

After seeing the collapse of guys like Yoshihiro Akiyama, Kid Yamamoto and Mirko Cro Cop, once they came to the UFC, I just can’t trust fighters who came up in Japan anymore.

I’ll say McGee eventually gets on top and effectively works a sub.

Court McGee via third round submission (arm triangle choke)

Dwight Wakabayashi: Court McGee is on path to write an incredible comeback story in his life, and Dongi Yang will be his toughest obstacle for success so far in his career.

McGee successfully overcame some early adversity to gain a win in his debut against Ryan Jensen, he was hurt and cut early before he submitted him.

Yang is a more complete fighter than Jensen and he will look to build on his nice knockout win over Rob Kimmons in March.

I see McGee using his reach all night in this one, and his determination should pull him through in the end

Court McGee via unanimous decision

Vince Carey: The UFC seems to favor Ultimate Fighter winners and this fight pretty much proves it.

There is no reason McGee should lose this fight, especially since he’s had a significant amount of time off to improve his already pretty well rounded game.

Look for McGee to rough Yang up on the feet, get a quick takedown and work from there.

Yang is a tough guy, but I don’t see him surviving the entire 15 minutes with McGee looking to make a statement.

Court McGee via second round submission

Jordy McElroy: Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang The “Ultimate Fighter” Season 11 winner Court McGee returns from a knee injury to face Korean Top Team student Dong-Yi Yang.

Conditioning will be key for Yang in this bout. Does he have the gas tank to sustain three hard rounds against a fighter like McGee, who will maintain consistent offensive pressure with tie-ups, clinch work and takedowns.

McGee needs to keep the fight on his terms and avoid overstaying his welcome on the feet.

Yang will no doubt come out head hunting, and McGee’s chin could crumble under the Korean’s power.

After losing in the early standup exchanges, look for McGee to make adjustments by relying more on his grappling and taking Yang out of his element.

An exciting start will slowly lead to a plethora of boos, as McGee maintains a dominant position and grinds out a unanimous decision.

Court McGee by unanimous decision

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Jake Shields vs Jake Ellenberger

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John Heinis: Ellenberger boasts a pretty impressive record of 24-5, but unfortunately, his best wins were against Mike Pyle, Pat Healy, and John Howard.

One can come up with a convincing argument that “The Juggernaut” should’ve been awarded the “W” over Carlos Condit when they met at a UFC Fight Night in 2009, but when push comes to shove, Condit earned the split decision.

Shields saw his father, who was also his manager, passed away just over two weeks ago. A traumatic event to say the least, and as sad as it is to say, that’s a major part of the reason why folks are giving Ellenberger a chance to win here.

What kind of mental state will the “American Jiu Jitsu” specialist be in for this fight?

Only Shields knows for sure, and while it’s up for debate if Ellenberger is a top 10 welterweight at this point, he may be a serious challenge for Shields even if he is fully prepared mentally and physically.

Fans sometimes forget that Shields wasn’t a two-time division I All-American wrestler, so the two are actually pretty evenly matched in the takedown department.

This, coupled with the fact that Ellenberger has way heavier hands, is why Ellenberger has a real chance of winning this fight.

However, realistically, the fight could be over pretty quickly if Shields gets the fight to the ground, being one of the most highly regarded BJJ black belts in the game, while The Juggernaut only has a blue belt at this point in his career.

While I actually do have a feeling Ellenberger pulls out the upset, Shields is one of the luckiest fighters in the game today (not to say he’s not talented) which is why I’d never bet against him.

Jake Shields via unanimous decision (29-28)

Dwight Wakabayashi: Obviously, this is the fight of the card on Saturday night and these two men are a large step up from the rest of the card.

Shields will be looking to follow up on a failed yet solid attempt at the title, and will look to take this fight to his world on the mat. Shields has a nice jab and counter straight to go with his grappling prowess, and I hope it has only gotten better since April.

Ellenberger is just what his nickname says he is “The Juggernaut” and he brings a bunch of tools in his bag to deal with his opponents. He has incredible power and strength for a 170 pound fighter and his knockout of Sean Pierson in April is clear proof of that.

Shields is a large step up for Ellenberger, but it is a challenge that he is ready for. If he comes out full of confidence and pushes the pace on Shields, I believe he will keep him off balance enough to keep this fight close all night.

Jake Shields via unanimous decision

Vince Carey: As a Nebraska native, I’m seriously excited for this main event, since my hometown favorite Ellenberger is finally getting his shot at the big time.

This is a more competitive fight than the average fan is giving it credit for, since most don’t know how good Ellenberger actually is.

He barely lost a decision to current number one contender Carlos Condit in his UFC debut and has looked impressive in every fight since.

Shields has some serious grappling skills, and no one was more surprised than me when he dominated Dan Henderson by outwrestling him back in his last Strikeforce fight.

That fight is probably the closest comparable matchup to this fight with Ellenberger, as Henderson and Ellenberger have similar skill sets.

Shields will have a distinct advantage on the mat, but Ellenberger has an even greater advantage on the feet.

Shields possesses some sloppy striking and Ellenberger’s counter right hand could end the fight at any time, but Shields walked through Henderson’s “H-Bomb”, which tells me he’s not getting finished.

Shields has been regarded as one of the top 5 welterweights in the division for a while now, but I think Ellenberger takes the decision and takes Shields ranking in the division.

Jake Ellenberger via Decision

Jordy McElroy: First and foremost, Jake Shields should be commended for not pulling out of this fight.

After the tragic passing of his father, no one would’ve blamed Shields for taking some time away from the octagon and spending it with his family.

He is a true warrior and great professional.

With that said, this is an incredibly tough match for Shields, who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre.

Jake Ellenberger is a scrappy veteran with underrated power and a strong wrestling base. Shields has to stay out of wild exchanges, pick his shots on the outside and look for opportunities to close the distance.

If Ellenberger dictates the pace of this fight, the Cesar Gracie student can go ahead and chalk up his second straight loss.

Shields is looking to slow the fight down and eat time off the clock with clinches against the fence, takedowns and top control.

If you’re into gambling, Ellenberger is a solid pickup as an underdog. As for the prediction, this journalist is sticking with Shields by an ugly unanimous decision.

Jake Shields by unanimous decision