What's My Line? Week 2 NFL Games Picked Against the Spread

Great games from afterthought athletes are the monkey wrench in sports wagering, especially early in the season. Not only do those scrubs’ 300-yard passing days skew your previous predictions, but they leave you guessing as you head into the next week.

Is Chad Henne that much better than last year? Is Donovan McNabb that much worse? Did the Ravens send prostitutes to the Steelers’ hotel on Saturday night? Almost nothing can be presumed from a sample size of one.

And if you struggle from the onset, you don’t know what to believe. Last week, I went 6-9-1 against the spread. The Chargers held the Vikings to 28 net yards passing...and still couldn’t cover. The Browns gave up the game-winning touchdown to the Bengals’ backup quarterback. I could go on, or I can take a cue from the NFL’s great athletes and focus on the future, take what we’ve learned from our first salvo of football games, and prepare to prognosticate for Week 2.

Let’s get after it.

Sunday, 1 p.m. games: Chicago +7 over NEW ORLEANS. Marques Colston’s fumble was a game-killer for the Saints in Green Bay in the kickoff game last week, but he has a broken collarbone now. Problem solved! Seriously, the Saints have their work cut out for them after the Bears spent last week dismantling the team that actually won the NFC South last year.

Kansas City +8 over DETROIT. The Lions were one of five teams that didn’t allow a completion longer than 25 yards in their first game. The Buffalo Bills, who played KC in Week 1, were another. Detroit was a sexy preseason pick to compete in the NFC North, but they haven’t proven that they can win the close games week in and week out.

NEW YORK JETS -9 over Jacksonville. After looking at total rushing attempts over the last five years, we see that Jacksonville finished third, 10th, 18th, second and third in the NFL. And they ran Maurice Jones-Drew into the line 25 times last week against Tennessee. They like to run, but the Jets like to stop the run more. In fact, New York didn’t let anyone rush for 100 yards in all of 2010. I’m predicting four sacks of Luke McCown, who will finish without a score for the second straight week.

Oakland +3 over BUFFALO (under 42.5). I’m not ready to drink the “Fitz-Magic” flavored beverage just yet. The Raiders seem to be getting their act together on defense and should drag the Bills back down to earth, where they belong.

WASHINGTON -4 over Arizona. If you thought Cam Newton lit up the Cardinals secondary (and he did), wait until Rex Grossman gets a hold of them. Grossman threw for 305 yards and two TDs against the Giants, who were a top-ten passing defense just a year ago. It’ll be a long day for Arizona if they can’t put Grossman on his back.

Baltimore -6 over TENNESSEE. Baltimore pounded Pittsburgh so badly that some thought that game was played in a Milledgeville restroom. The Titans gave up 163 yards against Jacksonville last week. Ray Rice owners will be treated to another 100-yard week, and the Titans will see their window in a wide-open AFC South begin to close.

Seattle +14.5 over PITTSBURGH (over 40). Oh, man. Tarvaris Jackson is awful, and even spotting T-Jack two touchdowns and change won’t ease concerns of anyone looking to take Seattle (because who isn’t looking to take Seattle?). But consider that the Steelers will be starting a rookie at left tackle after Willie Colon had season-ending surgery earlier this week. Can Marcus Gilbert rack up all of the holding penalties that Colon made look so easy? I like his chances.

Green Bay -9 over CAROLINA. I’m now calling Aaron Rodgers “The Aassassin,” with two As in front, just like his first name. I think he’s the best quarterback in the league (yes, better than Brady), and the Packer defense won’t be playing that tumbleweed zone defense like Arizona did last week, especially since Charles Woodson wasn’t suspended (only fined) for that punch he threw in Week 1. It’s too bad. I was really enjoying Steve Smith’s return from the dead.  

Tampa Bay +3 over MINNESOTA. Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards last week and yet the Vikes are a three-point favorite against a team that won 10 games last year. Two questions here: What are they smoking in the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook, and how do I get some?

Cleveland -3 over INDIANAPOLIS. Kerry Collins played last week like he was...um...bereft of hand-eye coordination. Let’s just be grateful that he was running the Colts offense and not driving a Camry down I-74. The Colts 0-16 Watch is on until Collins can prove he can go an entire game without fumbling a snap.

Your 4 p.m. ET games:

Dallas -3 over SAN FRANCISCO. Ted Ginn was rather proud of himself after returning a kickoff and punt for touchdowns against the Seahawks last week. We’ll check back with his self-esteem level on Sunday, when he realizes that Alex Smith is still his quarterback.

Houston -3 over MIAMI. Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards in a shootout against New England, but he won’t get any credit for it because his team got blown out. Okay, so they didn't get blown out, but 400 yards isn't much when you give up 500. Dolphins majority owner Stephen Ross probably wishes he had thrown more money at Jim Harbaugh in the offseason. Instead, he gave a contract extension to Tony Sparano, the coach he wanted to fire.

NEW ENGLAND -7 over San Diego (under 54). I like the under here even though Chad Henne lit the Patriots defense up like a Hollywood movie lot. The Chargers completely shut down Donovan McNabb last week, and the Patriots will buckle down after watching film from their Monday night shootout.

Cincinnati +4.5 over DENVER. The Broncos have to stop the run, which they failed to do last week against Oakland, or else Cedric Benson will tear them another mile-wide hole. Kyle Orton may have had the worst 300-yard passing game in NFL history last week with two costly turnovers, and will face another talented secondary when the Bengals come to town.

Sunday night game:

Philadelphia -2.5 over ATLANTA. Michael Vick returns to Atlanta to scorch his former team. Matt Ryan takes out his frustrations by starting an underground goldfish-fighting ring.

Monday night game:

St. Louis +4.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS. New York hasn’t added much to their roster since their Super Bowl XLII win almost four years ago. If Steven Jackson can play through his hurt quadriceps, look for the Rams to knock the Giants to the bottom of the NFC East.