Eagles vs. Falcons Week 2 Preview: 10 Telling Numbers

The much-anticipated NFL Week 2 showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons won’t lack for storylines—Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta chief among them.

However, if you're looking for a Freudian analysis of Vick’s contrition or an indulgent meditation on redemption and race, look elsewhere, friend. The Internet abounds with such material.

On this slide show we’re talking football, specifically the on-field matchup between two of the most highly rated NFC squads heading into the 2011 season.

In the slides that follow you’ll find 10 telling statistics from Week 1 that give insight into the Eagles-Falcons Sunday Night showdown. Some numbers foretell a disturbing trend, others highlight strengths that will need to hold if the team in question is to prevail.

In a week that promises to provide an overdose of sentiments, it’s nice to have a mathematical refuge amidst the emotional onslaught.

These are the facts, folks. Make of them what you will.

237: Rushing Yards by Eagles

The Eagles have a well-earned reputation for neglecting the ground game. And it’s true, the Eagles don’t hand the ball off to their running backs all that much.

However, in the Michael Vick era, just because they don’t get their ground yards the conventional way doesn’t mean they don’t run the ball. Between Vick’s scrambling and running back LeSean McCoy’s big-play ability, the Eagles don’t need tons of carries to rack up yards.

Last year the Birds rated fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, accumulating 145 per game. Last week against the Rams they showed once again why teams have to mind their rushing attack, going off for 237 yards on just 31 attempts (an average of 7.6 yards per rush).

Those yards are no fluke, and the Falcons need to account for all of the different ways the Eagles can move the ball. They’re one of the few teams that can account for two incomplete passes with a 10-yard run, and do it routinely.

181: Passing Yards Allowed by Eagles

While the Eagles' run game picked up where it left off last year, their pass defense showed why the offseason additions of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ought to improve a secondary that struggled in 2010.

In Week 1 the Rams’ new feature wideout Mike Sims-Walker had just one catch for five yards and the entire team gained just 181 yards through the air. Compare that to last year, when the Eagles allowed 217 yards per game, a mark that ranked them 14th in football.

The Eagles brain trust clearly believes that—run defense be damned—you have to stop the pass to win in today’s NFL.

So far, so good.

This week that same secondary will face a much stiffer test against Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones. If that unit can post similar numbers, the Eagles should feel pretty good about their chances.

72: Yards Receiving by Tony Gonzalez

Gonzalez led the Falcons in receiving yards last week and continues to be a steadying presence on their offense. Week 2 against the Eagles provides him a chance to possibly improve on that solid opening effort.

The Eagles’ known weaknesses on defense are in their linebacking corps and their safeties, and the task of covering Gonzalez will likely fall to members of those units. Although St. Louis tight end Lance Kendricks didn’t burn the Eagles last week on the stat sheet, those numbers would have looked a lot better if he hadn’t dropped a couple of perfectly thrown balls.

The veteran Gonzalez won’t give the pass defense so many second chances. Strong safety Jarrad Page had the best game of any of the linebackers or safeties last week, and he’ll have to duplicate those efforts to keep Gonzalez in check.

42.9: Percent of Michael Vick’s Drop Backs Where the Defense Blitzed*

The Rams took a high-risk, high-reward approach to defending Michael Vick. By and large they got burned.

On those blitz plays Vick rushed eight times for an astounding 100 yards and the Eagles converted seven of the eight third downs into the teeth of the St. Louis pressure.

The Falcons are more likely to rely on the pressure generated by defensive linemen John Abraham and Ray Edwards than they are to send extra rushers against Vick. Vick will have to adjust his game accordingly and the offensive line will have to provide protection against more standard pressure packages for the Eagles offense to stay on track.

*This stat courtesy of ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio

8: Penalties Committed by Eagles (4 on Offensive Linemen)

Last week’s victory over the Rams was a sloppy one for the Eagles, and a particularly schizoid performance for Philadelphia’s maligned offensive line. In addition to the four penalties committed, confusion across the offensive front led the Eagles to burn their three first-half timeouts much earlier than they would have liked.

For the most part, those miscommunication and miscues occurred early in the game when the crowd noise in St. Louis’ Edward Jones Dome grew loudest. Later in the game, after a few big plays sucked the life from the building, that same group looked for more composed and confident.

One problem: The front five will face a similarly harsh environment this week in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. If the game remains close into the fourth quarter, Eagles fans will have to watch rookie center Jason Kelce and newcomers Kyle DeVan and Evan Mathis closely.

A flinch here or a missed call there could make the margin between victory and defeat.

5: Number of Sacks Yielded by Falcons and Number of Sacks Notched by Eagles

It is a strange and compelling coincidence that the Atlanta Falcons yielded the same number of sacks against the Chicago Bears last week as the Philadelphia Eagles notched against their opponent, the St. Louis Rams.

In hostile Soldier Field the Falcons struggled to keep quarterback Matt Ryan clean. Ryan is the type of quarterback who needs a pocket to move the offense, and without that he became more susceptible to mistakes. Both his interception and fumble came on plays where he was flushed from the pocket.

Clearly, the Falcons need to work on their protection in order to keep the Eagles at bay. They’ll need to hope a more manageable home environment makes their task a bit easier.

All that won’t be easy against a revamped Eagles defensive line that looked menacing against Sam Bradford. Free-agent additions Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin made their presence felt, and a deep, eight-man line rotation kept the unit fresh and aggressive well into the fourth quarter.

The Eagles are banking on the combination of their front four and their defensive back corps to keep the defense stout. Atlanta best be aware.

4: Number of Tackles by Casey Matthews

On a flaccid linebacking unit, Eagles’ rookie middle linebacker Casey Matthews already looks like the weakest link. While fellow backers Moise Fokou and Jamar Chaney acquitted themselves decently in Week 1, Matthew was mostly MIA through the four quarters.

To make matters worse, FOX cameras caught the eager rookie over-committing on a couple of big cut-back runs by St. Louis. In a big game against a good team, those mistakes will look a lot bigger.

You can be sure the Falcons and running back Michael Turner will attack Matthews in the run game as often as they can. Matthews is the least experienced player on this Eagles defense, and he’ll be a leading target for opposing offenses until he proves himself otherwise.

3: Turnovers by Falcons

When teams of fairly equal talent meet, it’s usually the mistakes that make the difference. There’s little way of knowing who will make those mistakes and how costly they’ll be—that’s what makes football such a maddeningly unpredictable game—but it’s safe to say miscues matter.

Last week the Falcons made a few too many blunders early in the game and the team never really recovered. Decent offensive rhythm fell victim to those scatter-shot, bullet-in-the-foot moments, and the Falcons need to avoid the same mistakes against a confident Eagles team.

All of that starts with Matt Ryan’s game management. Ryan needs to reign in some of those chancier tendencies and trust the talent around him. As we saw in Chicago last week, Ryan is not the type of quarterback who is going to make spectacular throws on the run or evaporate from a collapsing pocket. And he doesn’t need to be.

Throw the ball away, take sacks when necessary—those are the types of good decisions Ryan must make to keep his team from losing the ball and losing the game.

1: Number of Catches by Jeremy Maclin

After missing all of preseason due to a mysterious illness, Maclin returned to the turf on Sunday and showed some rust. Vick rarely targeted Maclin and the receiver finished with just one catch and 20 yards receiving.

As Dan Graziano reports, the Eagles realize they need to get Maclin the ball more often. He’s their most reliable receiver, especially on intermediate routes that keep the chains moving.

With the Falcons less likely to blitz against the Eagles, finding Maclin for mid-range gains will help Vick break down a more conservative scheme.

0: Number of Wins Atlanta Has

That’s the number haunting Atlanta right now. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, two losses to start the season against two fellow NFC contenders would be a sharp blow.

This game means plenty for both teams as a matter of momentum and perception, but in the standings the Falcons need it more.

That urgency ought to be part of their preparation heading into the week’s premier game.