NFL Picks Week 2: 7 Underdogs Who Could Win Outright

A week of the 2011 NFL season may be in the books, but you’d be foolish to declare a few of the 0-1 clubs’ seasons over or pencil some of those surprisingly 1-0 teams in for the playoffs.

If we’ve learned anything from the NFL over the last decade it’s that the “Any Given Sunday” concept is alive and well. So just because Vegas declares a certain team a lock to fall flat this weekend, don’t take that to the bank.

Those types of snap judgments made in one week can prove to be way off just a few days later.

In fact, the oddsmakers out in Sin City see the outcome of seven of those showdowns in Week 2 backwards. Here they are. 

No. 7: Oakland (1-0) at Buffalo (1-0)

Spread: Bills (-3.5)

I hate to burst Buffalo's bubble, but do you remember what happened in 2003 when the Bills got off to another fantastic start, crushing the Patriots 31-0 in Week 1? They still fell flat and finished the season 6-10. So let's not anoint them a playoff contender just yet. 

Last week's triumph in Arrowhead was impressive, but the Chiefs had a beaten-up quarterback who had missed some of that week's practice, they lost their best secondary player (Eric Berry) in the first quarter and they don't have Charlie Weis any longer to call the plays.

Furthermore, that Bills' run defense—which finished dead last in the NFL last year—still allowed the Chiefs to gain six yards per carry last week, and with Darren McFadden coming to Orchard Park, that's troublesome. Add that to the edge in speed (Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford) that Oakland has, and they're ripe for an upset. 

Prediction: Raiders 23, Bills 17

No. 6: Dallas (0-1) at San Francisco (1-0)

Spread: 49ers (+3)

You’d probably be right to say that the 49ers were “lucky” to get by the Seahawks. How often does a player return two kicks for touchdowns in the span of 80 seconds?

Still, Jim Harbaugh’s new approach to the 49er offense seems to be working. With Alex Smith playing efficiently and not turning the ball over, they were able to put together a few long drives. Now if they could only convert on third down. But considering how often they shot themselves in the foot on Sunday (10 penalties for 102 yards lost), they should do better than 1-for-12 this week.

From a defensive standpoint, they certainly have a tough test against the Cowboys, who looked so good for three quarters last week in the Meadowlands. But Dallas still was unable to put together much offense on the ground (just 2.5 yards per carry) and didn’t protect Tony Romo, or the football, when it mattered most. That will cost them again down the stretch, and Jerry Jones will be cranky at 0-2.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 27 

No. 5: Cleveland (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1)

Spread: Colts (+2.5)

Everyone is ready to bury the Colts now that they’ve lost Peyton Manning for probably for the whole season. And they are definitely not a playoff team; case in point, what they did in Houston on Sunday.

But anyone ready to declare Indy in the driver’s seat for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes is way off base. This is still a team that will win six or seven games. And the Browns will be their first.

Cleveland really laid an egg last week, losing at home to the Bengals, a club that people were crowning the NFL’s worst. They were beaten repeatedly by tight end Jermaine Gresham and allowed A.J. Green to run untouched into the end zone for an easy touchdown. The Colts don’t have Peyton but they still have Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. Kerry Collins may be old and played poorly last week, but he will take advantage of those matchup advantages and put up a few surprising scores.

Granted, the Colts will win more because of the Browns' deficiencies—not their own productivity—but a win is a win….especially when your franchise is on the sidelines in a t-shirt.

Prediction: Colts 17, Browns 14 

No. 4: Arizona (1-0) at Washington (1-0)

Spread: Redskins (-4)

The Cardinals' win over Carolina last week was fairly empty. Not only did it come at home against a club that had the NFL’s worst record last year, but they let a rookie quarterback, Cam Newton, playing in his first game throw for 422 yards.

Still, there was plenty for which Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt should be proud. His rookie, Patrick Peterson, and his 89-yard punt return proved he is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball, and Kevin Kolb actually looked like he was worth all the offseason hype, completing two-thirds of his passes for over 300 yards.

And although the Redskins’ defeat of the Giants last week was a big feather in Mike Shanahan’s cap, the Giants were borderline inept: eight penalties, 1-for-10 on third down, twice failing in critical short-yardage situations. 

Prediction: Cardinals 31, Redskins 20 

No. 3: Philadelphia (1-0) at Atlanta (0-1)

Spread: Falcons (+2.5)

The playoff drubbing Green Bay delivered last season notwithstanding, the Falcons are just a different team at home than they are on the road. For whatever reason, Matt Ryan plays much better in the Georgia Dome and having Julio Jones—who actually had a better Week 1 effort than All-Pro teammate Roddy White—on the astroturf is going to be huge.

So even though that offense looked so poor last week in Chicago, defense is going to be key to avoiding a disastrous 0-2 start.

Yes, Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy ran all over the young Rams defense last week, but they face a much tougher secondary in Atlanta. More importantly, the Falcons' pass rush is much improved with Ray Edwards joining John Abraham on the edges.

Look for those two bookends to put enough pressure on Vick by way of a shoddy offensive line, making things much tougher on Michael Vick. Brent Grimes should be a nice matchup against DeSean Jackson.

Prediction: Falcons 20, Eagles 16 

No. 2: Chicago (1-0) at New Orleans (0-1)

Spread: Saints (-6.5)

Despite the loss last week, the Saints' offense was very impressive in Green Bay last Thursday night. Drew Brees torched that Packers' great secondary for 419 yards and put up five scores.

But the Bears' 4-3 can put more pressure on Brees and make him more uncomfortable than the Packers' 3-4 did. Just look at what they did last week against a similarly stacked Falcons passing attack. They made Matt Ryan look fairly average and recorded five sacks, all from the front four.

That means Love Smith can play his Tampa 2 and have seven guys flooding the lanes to fluster Brees….assuming, of course, everything is alright with Brian Urlacher and he returns to the team. They should be able to keep the Saints (who weren’t terribly dominant at home last year at 5-3) under 25 points. And with the accuracy (69 percent) Jay Cutler displayed last week against a very good Falcons defense, they should be able to score enough points to force overtime.

Prediction: Bears 27, Saints 24 (OT) 

No. 1: Rams (0-1) at Giants (0-1)

Spread: Giants (-5.5)

This has to be the most stunning point spread of the young 2011 season. Even if you take away the standard three points for being at home, I can’t believe the Giants are considered 2.5-point favorites against the Rams.

In the early going, the Rams put up a fairly good fight against the Eagles last week. Who knows how that game turns out if they don’t hand the Eagles the go-ahead touchdown via a fumble late in the first quarter?

Certainly the absence of Steven Jackson and the injury to  Sam Bradford’s finger are going to limit what the Rams can do on offense, and points will come at a premium.

But the Giants have become arguably the worst team in the NFL when it comes to protecting the football and avoiding the crippling fumble or interception. Last year, they led the NFL in turnovers and the pick-six Eli Manning gave Ryan Kerrigan last week was the turning point in the game.

This week the same thing will happen.  Here’s a stat for you: The Giants have only been turnover free once in their last 19 games.

Prediction: Rams 20, Giants 13