Cincinnati Reds: It's Almost October, Where Are You Redlegs?

The Cincinnati Reds will be in a familiar position when the 2011 playoffs roll around—sitting at home watching it from the couch.

At this time in 2010, they were preparing for their first postseason appearance in 15 years. Manager Dusty Baker had led the Queen City squad to a 91-71 record, finishing first in the National League Central above the hated Saint Louis Cardinals.

But oh, what a year can change.



*Disclosure: Note that this article was written with 14 games left in the regular season.

Pitching

The Reds began their promising 2011 campaign by winning the first five games on the schedule—including a sweep against the now-division-leading Milwaukee Brewers—and it seemed as if Cincy had picked up right where it left off.

However, the Reds do tend to tease us at times with their deceiving looks.

Cincinnati would soon find out that its starting pitching—a strength from last season (57-44, 4.05 ERA)—was not performing at the same level.

Through the first 33 games, Reds’ starters had a combined ERA of 5.16 with a 11-10 record. Former All-Star Edinson Volquez struggled mightily before being sent down to triple-A Louisville, and Bronson Arroyo proved he wasn’t going to have another 15-win year.

The addition of Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey from the designated list (DL) helped the club immensely, but it wasn’t enough to pull the team out from being subpar.

Kudos to the bullpen for having a decent season, as they improved their overall ERA from 3.97 to 3.63 from last year. However, Nick Masset, who was an anchor towards the Reds’ playoff run, completely fell apart in 2011.

The 29 year-old right-hander pitched in 82 games in 2010, posting a 4-4 record and 3.40 ERA while grabbing 20 holds. These stats dropped this season, as he struggled to get batters out and averaged .47 walks per inning pitched.

Batting

It doesn’t help that the National League’s reigning best offense was still hungover from last year.

Cincinnati hit .272 as a team (.338 on-base percentage) and scored 4.88 runs per game in 2010, compared to its .258 batting average (.327 OBP) and 4.61 runs this season.

A little bit of a drop-off in productivity, but not enough to be too detrimental to the team, right?

Well, the difference is runners in scoring position. The Reds hit .278 (.365 OBP) in the clutch last year, which resulted in 27 wins by a margin of one run. However, this season, Cincy was dreadful with runners on, as it compiled a .262 batting average (3.56 OBP) and, of course, won 26 games by one run, but lost 30 in this category (through September 13).

We can thank a few people for this unpleasant lack of production: the strikeout king Drew Stubbs, the infamously inconsistent Jay Bruce, the absence of Scott Rolen, and the rotation of Johnny Gomes, Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis in left field (although, Gomes was traded, thank God).

Stubbs has plenty of upside to his name, with one of them being his ridiculous speed. He can steal a base at will, which you’d think would make him a no-brainer to hit leadoff.

Wrong.

The center fielder led the entire MLB with strikeouts—yes, above Adam Dunn—whiffing at a rate of about one of every three at bats throughout the season. His on-base percentage was well below the league average for leadoff hitters, ranking him No. 104 among others at the position.

Bruce’s career continues to be a huge question mark; he has showed that he is one of the most inconsistent players in the country. Since his arrival to the league, this is how his stats break down:

In the months of April and May, Bruce is 159 for 581 (.274) with 38 home runs and 102 RBI. Not too shabby.

However, in June and July, when teams are really getting into their groove and making strides to become playoff contenders, Bruce completely disappears. In this time, he has hit 161 of 696 (.231) with 18 homers and a whopping 182 strikeouts (.25 K’s per at bat).

When the Reds need him most, he’s not there.

But of course, in August and September he picks it up again, hitting 136 of 497 (.274) with 27 dingers and 96 runs batted in. In this year’s case, it’s been a little too late.

The aging Scott Rolen battled injuries throughout the season, playing in only 65 games this year. The eight-time Gold Glove award winner played a large part in the success of the Reds’ playoff run in 2010, hitting .285 with 20 homers and 83 RBI while compiling a 97.7 fielding percentage at third base.

And it’s no doubt that the Reds have problems with the left field position in their lineup. Before the addition of Yonder Alonso, the trio of Johnny Gomes, Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis assembled a .230 batting average with 29 home runs, 93 RBI and 178 strikeouts in 640 total at bats. It’s a shame that Alonso can’t make it out there in left field, because his bat was on fire coming into the Major Leagues.

Management

You can sit there and make excuses for how Cincinnati doesn’t have the payroll of playoff teams like Philadelphia, Boston and New York (which is true). But we can win with the players we have, and we proved that in 2010.

This brings me to my final point (although there are many, many others). If the Reds want to reach a World Series—or the playoffs again, at that—Dusty Baker cannot be the manager. He did a great job turning the Redlegs around and finding success in his third season after taking on a below-average organization.

Nevertheless, Baker, an old-school baseball traditionalist, uses puzzling methods such as his tendency to put players with a poor on-base percentage at or near the top of his lineups (see Drew Stubbs).

Baker rejects the importance of on-base percentage, arguing that extra base runners simply "clog up the bases" unless they can run well. Many fans, commentators and writers have blamed his tendency to overuse pitchers and for damaging the careers of Robb Nen, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Edinson Volquez, earning him the nickname "Widowmaker."

Wood and Prior, along with Volquez, all suffered serious arm injuries following their first full seasons under Baker.

I can recall plenty of separate occasions on which Dusty Baker single-handedly blew a close game for Cincinnati in 2011 alone, with the reoccurring situation of either leaving his starter in too long or not putting the right matchup from the bullpen on the mound.

It’s safe to say that Baker is not a clutch manager and his bonehead decision-making under pressure isn’t what Cincinnati needs to move forward.

In My Opinion...

In my opinion, if the Reds want to bounce back in 2012, numerous actions must be taken.

Do I think that the entire roster needs to be shaken up? No, but a few moves wouldn’t hurt.

I’ll start off with pitching. I understand that Bronson Arroyo’s contract lasts through 2013, but it’s getting to the point where we need to try to get rid of him while he’s worth something. If general manager Walt Jocketty agreed to pay some of his salary, I’m sure we could get a few prospects for the ol’ rubber arm.

In my opinion, Johhny Cueto, Mike Leake, Dontrelle Willis and Travis Wood should be in the starting rotation. We can get something for Homer Bailey, who really has been a bust since the Reds drafted him with high expectations, and Volquez obviously isn’t the same player he was in 2008.

Also, there’s no reason why the “Cuban Missle”, a.k.a. Aroldis Chapman, shouldn’t be considered to play a factor in this role. The Reds should give him a shot as a starter. Besides, that’s why we brought him here in the first place.

I think that Bill Bray, Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney, and yes, Francisco Cordero should all keep their jobs in the bullpen. However, guys like Jose Arrendondo, Carlos Fisher, Nick Masset, and Logan Ondrusek all need to go. Their productivity isn’t enough to clear my expectations and isn’t going to lead the Reds to a World Series.

With Ramon Hernandez becoming a free agent, the catching tandem of Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco should suffice.

We can expect Rolen to return for one more season, but Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco will be battling it out for the future at the position (that is, unless Jocketty makes a move for somebody else).

I’m very high on our brand new shortstop Zach Cozart. He really flourished during his short time in the Majors before getting hurt, and I believe he can end up being the guy at that position for years to come. Paul Janish, on the other hand, has a nice arm but couldn’t hit a bowling ball to save his life.

“Dat Dude Brandon Phillips” is only 30 and is a huge asset to Cincy’s infield. If he’s not on ESPN’s highlight reel, he’s probably not playing.

Chris Valaika is an up-and-coming athlete and can serve well as a utility player, just as Miguel Cairo (who I HOPE we resign) has.

There’s nothing we can do about Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs—both are way too good in the outfield to dispose of. Chris Heisey is a solid backup and one of the best pinch-hitters in the MLB.

And finally, my eye-popping conclusion: the Cincinnati Reds either need to trade Joey Votto (Jose Bautista?) or put him in left field.

I know you’re shouting obscene words out loud right now, but hear me out.

Votto is going to hit the ball extremely well whether he’s at first base or in the outfield, correct? Well, the same doesn’t go for Yonder Alonso—who was 27-70 (.386) with four home runs, 13 RBI and eight walks by Sept. 14—who just flat-out can’t play any position other than first base.

If you’re a true Reds fan, you realize that they need Alonso’s left-handed bat in the lineup. Votto has played outfield before and he knows the position. Both guys have incredible talent and get on base a ton (both have above .440 OBPs). It’s just a matter of time before Cincinnati figures out dynamic these two could be when they’re both in the lineup and on the field together for a full season, but this is the only way how.

And at this point, I’m ready to try something new. One postseason appearance in 16 years isn’t my definition of fun, so why not take a gamble every now and then?