Brett Lawrie: 18 Current and Past Third Basemen His Career Could Resemble

When discussing Brett Lawrie, there are many people who expect him to become the next great 3B and possibly the best 3B in Toronto Blue Jays history. His statistics to date give credence to that theory. However, just because Lawrie has destroyed the ball in less than half a season does not mean anything going forward.

Lawrie is talented no doubt, but no one can expect that he will hit at this clip all season next year. Once more tape of him is out there, teams will know how to pitch to him and find his weaknesses.

That being said, by analyzing Lawrie’s attributes, strengths and skills we will try and give some comparisons to players (past and present) whose careers Lawrie could emulate.

The Breakdown

This article will break down the comparisons into six categories. As previously discussed here and in my past articles on Lawrie, the sky is the limit with this guy but Hinske was also a stud.

In order to counter our excitement with Lawrie projections, I have decided to break down how Lawrie compares to other MLB players and whose career he could duplicate.

We will break it down into three categories: 1. Best case scenario 2. Tempered Expectations and 3. Low Expectations

All three of these categories will contain 3 retired players and 3 current players (in no specific order).

What Brett Lawrie (6’0 213 Lbs) Brings to the Table

Before we analyze the comparisons we need to outline the type of player that is Brett Lawrie. Brett Lawrie is a blue chip prospect and has a very high ceiling.

Lawrie has shown to be a mature, hard working third baseman who wants to be the best. He has a great eye at the plate and has shown that he can hit for power and average both at the minor league and major league level. Lawrie also has some speed that could net him roughly 20 SB in a season.

He is not going to be a gold glove third baseman (…yet) but he has tremendously improved at the position with many highlight reel plays. Further consistency is needed but with additional experience at his new position he should become a solid defensive third baseman.

Lastly, Lawrie is a passionate born leader who excites all those around him. This type of positive energy and zeal will make him improve as he grows into a bona fide major leaguer.

Best Case Scenario #1: Mike Schmidt (6’2 195 Lbs)

Arguably the best 3B in history, Mike Schmidt could hit the ball all over the diamond for power while stealing some bags. Schmidt was a career .267 hitter but hit as many as 48 HR in a season. With ten gold gloves, Schmidt was the best all around 3B.

Comparison: I don’t think Lawrie could harness the power that Schmidt had but he should be able to maintain a higher batting average than Schmidt’s career mark. Schmidt is also a much better defensive player than Lawrie. That being said, if Lawrie was able to come anywhere close to the career of Schmidt then the Blue Jays would be overjoyed.

Best Case Scenario #2: Howard Johnson (5’11 178 Lbs)

One of the most underrated 3B, (IMHO) Johnson’s statistics are uncanny. Johnson flirted with the 40-40 club on many occasions and was a force in the late 1980s. Although Johnson only hit .249 for his career, he had phenomenal seasons like 1991 where had a line of .259/ 108 runs / 38 HR / 117 RBI / 30 SB / 78 BB. HJ never once won a Gold Glove. 

Comparison: HJ was much more of a hit-or miss player. Lawrie’s career should have more consistency than the .249 AVG of HJ. I doubt Lawrie will ever match the power or speed numbers of HJ, but he could become a more well rounded 3B. Like HJ, Lawrie will show great plate discipline and should be able to walk at a similar clip to HJ.

Best Case Scenario #3: George Brett (6’0 185 Lbs)

Probably the closest comparison to Lawrie in this category, Brett was a dominating, intimidating all around hitter. Brett his for a high average (.305 career mark) had some pop (hit 30 HRs in 1985) and still had decent grit and speed (23 SB in 1978). Brett hit the ball all over the field and had as many as 20 triples in a season.

Like most great hitters, Brett had a great eye at the plate thus generating many walks and in many seasons had ridiculous K/BB numbers (49/103 in 1985). Brett also won a gold glove the same year he propelled them to their only World Series title.

Comparison: Like Brett, Lawrie can hit the ball around the park while maintaining a high average. Brett was known for being a tough out and Lawrie’s intensity could rival Brett’s. With above average pop, speed and plate coverage, if Lawrie could follow along this career path, he too could, like Brett, propel the Blue Jays to a World Series title.

Best Case Scenario (Current Player) #1: Evan Longoria (6’2 210 Lbs)

I am a fan of Longoria’s although I think he is a little overrated. He has a decent eye at the plate, can hit for power and to multiple parts of the field. He has some speed (15 SB last year) but strikes out a ton (23% of Abs). I doubt Lawrie will ever become the defensive 3B Longoria is, but the offensive production could be equalled.

Comparison: Lawrie has the ability to hit HRs and RBI (if Lawrie is put in a RBI slot in the lineup) like Longoria and should be able to eclipse him in speed. The walk rate and OBP should be similar but Longoria will always be the better defensive player. However, they should compete for women for a long time with those smiles.

Best Case Scenario (Current Player) #2: David Wright (6’0 210 Lbs)

David Wright is a bona fide stuff in this league. A member of the 30-30 club, Wright plays with intensity and heart on every play. Wright hits for average, power and can knock the ball around the diamond. A high walk rate leads to a high career OBP (.382). At only 28, he can cement himself in the HOF if he continues with these statistics.

Comparison: At roughly the same height and weight, they have similar bodies. Not much to say here, they do many of the same things. If Lawrie continues to improve he could be a stalwart for the Jays like Wright is for the Mets and a fan favourite. He will need to improve his fielding to match Wright’s two Gold Gloves however.

Best Case Scenario (Current Player) #3: Larry Wayne Jones (6’4 210 Lbs)

A model of consistency, Chipper is to the Braves what Jeter is to the Yankees. Chipper had 100+ RBIs for eight consecutive seasons. Chipper has shown flashes of power, speed and has always had one of the greatest eyes at the plate (1999: 45 HR, 25 SB, 126 BB).

A career OBP of .403, Chipper has over 100 more walks than strikeouts for his career. Has never been a defensive guru like others on this list but has never been a liability. If Lawrie could come close to this MVP and batting champion’s career numbers, the Blue Jays would be overjoyed.

Comparison: Chipper is a taller, lankier player so they have a much different body and still of play. Chipper is also a switch hitter while Lawrie bats R. I’d say that Lawrie has the advantage in speed but he would be hard pressed to match Jones’ power and walk numbers as well as his AVG, OBP.

Tempered Expectations #1: Ken Caminiti (6’0 200 Lbs)

Caminiti was a very good 3B for most of the 90s. He unfortunately passed away due to a drug overdose in 2004 but was a highly regarded 3B during his time in the show. A 3-time gold glove winner, Ken was one of the best switch hitters of his era. With above average pop and decent speed, Caminiti was a tough out. A solid 3B but never one of the greats (other than his self-proclaimed steroids induced MVP season).

Comparison: Like Caminiti, Lawrie can do a little bit of everything. Neither excel at one aspect of the game (actually you could say Caminiti excelled in the field) but are very good all around. Caminiti was a switch hitter and Lawrie bats right but they have similar muscular bodies. If Lawrie had a similar statistical career, no one would complain.

Tempered Expectations #2: Robin Ventura (6’1 185 Lbs)

Robin Ventura was never a big time 3B but always a very solid unspectacular one. He would always get his 20 or so HRs, 75 BB. He never usually batted in an RBI spot (as he played most of his career with ‘the Big Hurt’ Frank Thomas) but still provided solid play from the 5 or 6 hole. An excellent defensive player, Ventura won the Gold Glove award an impressive six times.

Comparison: At .267 for his career, Lawrie should be able to have a higher career average. This comparison would be perfect if Lawrie had a decent but not great career. He would get his 20 HRs, provide a solid OBP but never harness his potential to its fullest (just like Ventura, the 10th pick in the 1988 draft).

Tempered Expectations #3: Kelly Gruber (6’0 180 Lbs)

You know the best 3B in Blue Jays history had to be on this list. Gruber and his gorgeous mullet are well known to Blue Jay fans. Gruber’s career was unfortunately cut short due to injury, but he had some great years in the late 80s and early 90s.

Gruber had some solid power and could steal a couple bags. His career really only lasted six years, but that was enough to put him in Blue Jays lore. He never hit for a high average and had roughly a 2:1 K/BB ratio. That being said he still won a gold glove, silver slugger, World Series title, and had consecutive all star game appearances. Not bad for a six year career.

Comparison: Lawrie, like Gruber is a scrappy player. Lawrie should provide a higher average and more speed, but if he could play with half the heart that KG did, then he will be a fan favourite for years to come.

Tempered Expectations (Current Player) #1: Aramis Ramirez (6’1 215 Lbs)

Aramis has had a very solid career but not one an excellent career. His only notable individual accomplishment on the field is being named to three all star games. Aramis has always been a little underrated in his prime (IMHO) usually hitting 30 HR and 100 RBIs. A decent eye at the plate, no speed and a solid career average of .284, Aramis has always been an above average, but not excellent 3B.

Comparison: If someone were to tell me that Lawrie would have an identical career to Aramis I wouldn’t be disappointed. Aramis has been consistent in his career and is a tough out. His career numbers are decent, just not excellent. An average fielder as well, Lawrie could develop into a better fielder as he is in better shape than Aramis.

Tempered Expectations (Current Player) #2: Scott Rolen (6’4 245 Lbs)

Rolen is one of those excellent players on and off the field that everyone respects. He plays the game the right way and has been one of the best defensive players I have ever seen. He had great pop in his prime with the ability to steal some bases. Rolen plays with 100% intensity and heart on every pitch. With a good eye and willing to do whatever is needed to help the team win, Rolen has had an excellent career.

Comparison: Rolen is a much larger man and it is his stature that has sapped his power and athleticism (due to injuries) in the twilight of his career. Offensively, Lawrie might have a hard time duplicating Rolen’s HRs and RBI totals but with a little more speed Lawrie could score more runs and be a dynamic player. That being said, Lawrie will never come close to the defensive 3B that Rolen is.

Tempered Expectations (Current Player) #3: Alex Gordon Circa 2011 (6’2 220 Lbs)

I am making this comparison as if Alex Gordon’s 2011 campaign is going to be the norm. It took Gordon awhile to get to where he is now but he has had an excellent 2011. Gordon qualifies in this comparison because he came up as a 3B and heard all of the George Brett comparison batting from the left side. Gordon’s year this year could be similar to that of Lawrie as they have a similar style of play. Even though Gordon now plays left field, his numbers to date are: .300 AVG / 21 HR / 82 RBI / 16 SB / 61 BB.

His 71 XBH are tied for 2nd in the MLB with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano... not too shabby!

Comparison: I could see Lawrie having a year similar to Gordon’s 2011 next year (although projecting a .300 AVG for someone’s first year is aggressive and idealistic) Gordon also has 45 doubles (league leader) and has the ability to hit the ball all over. Gordon has surprising speed and decent pop but it is his ability to hit many XBH that makes him so dangerous.

Low Expectations #1: Joe Crede (6’3 195 Lbs)

Crede was always a good 3B but never a very good one. He hit roughly 20 HRs and hit .250 for his career. He always had a good head on his shoulders and was highly regarded among teammates. He was oft-injured and was a serviceable bottom of the order power hitter.

Comparison: While Crede had some pop, he wasn’t the swiftest player in the league. Lawrie should be able to hit for a better average, with speed and garner more walks. But you never know….

Low Expectations #2: Scott Brosius (6’1 185 Lbs)

Brosius was one of those guys that is known for his World Series heroics in 1998. Brosius played for the Yankees and did a decent job at 3B. Never excelled, he was a one time All Star in his storybook 1998 campaign and he won a gold glove the following year. Brosius got the most out of his abilities, usually hitting HRs in the high teens, 6 SB and 40 BB on the season.

Other than two seasons were he hit over .300 and his last season, Brosius hit under .263 every other year. A gritty hard nosed player, Brosius’ career statistics aren’t very good, but he played with heart and was a favourite in the Bronx.

Comparison: Lawrie has much more raw talent than Brosius ever did, but if things don’t go his way Lawrie could have a disappointing career that mimics that of Brosius. Lawrie should be statistically better than Brosius across the board, but in Toronto we have seen Rookie dissipate.

Low Expectations #3: Jeff Cirillo (6’2 190 Lbs)

Cirillo was a decent 3B who put up some decent RBI numbers. Never a power hitter, Cirillo hit for a solid average. A two-time all-star, Cirillo had some solid years with Milwaukee but never remained consistent throughout his whole career. That being said a .296 career average is very solid.

Comparison: Lawrie has more power and speed than Cirillo. Cirillo also played solid defensively yet I think with more seasoning Lawrie could match Cirillo’s defence. Cirillo and Lawrie seem to have similar walk rates and if Lawrie could match Cirillo’s career K/BB, then the Jays should be happy; matching him in other categories would not make the Jays happy however.

Low Expectations (Current Player) #1: Ty Wigginton (6’0 230 Lbs)

Wigginton has turned into a serviceable player that can play anywhere on the diamond. He has never been a great offensive threat but puts up ok numbers. Wigginton, like Crede, will get his 20 HR and a few walks but not much else. A career .265 hitter, Wigginton is always a player that will round out your team.

Comparison: Lawrie has much more raw talent than Wiggy and is in better shape. Lawrie should destroy Wiggy’s numbers across the board. However, if something were to happen and Lawrie’s career numbers look like Wigginton’s, then many fans would be disappointed in this prospect.

Low Expectations (Current Player) #2: Mark DeRosa (6’0 220 Lbs)

Surprisingly enough, DeRosa only became a regular after turning 30. He has had some decent years in the mid to late 2000s but over a career his numbers are not the greatest. He has some pop, no speed and can play many different positions. He hit for a decent average for a couple season thus helping his overall .272 average. At best, he was a 23-87 guy with 69 BB.

Comparison: Lawrie should be more consistent, provide more leadership and net greater offence than DeRosa. Lawrie should eclipse even DeRosa’s best season next year but we all know what can happen with a great looking Jays rookie…

Low Expectations (Current Player) #3: Eric Hinske (6'2 235 Lbs)

The main reason Jays fans don’t want to get ahead of themselves on Lawrie is because of Hinske. As a rookie of the year in Toronto, Hinske had a line of .279 / 24 HR / 84 RBI / 13 SB / 77 BB. Toronto had such high hopes for him, yet he never improves on those numbers. A budding star in 2002, Hinske is the reason we have the ‘low expectations’ category.

Comparison: I don’t want to go here because it will start to worry me, but Hinske was never in top athletic shape like Lawrie and does not have his drive and energy on every play. Lawrie will turn out to be what we hoped Hinske was… a legit 3B for the Jays for years to come.

Thoughts?

Are there any other 3B that I could have compared Lawrie to that make sense? Let me know in the comments.

Which of these 16 players do you think Lawrie’s career will emulate?

My guess? Evan Longoria.

Thanks for the read!