New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Trench Play Will Determine the Outcome

The first thing you look at in a breakdown of a pass attack is the quarterback. Tom Brady, one of the best there is in the game, always gives the New England Patriots a chance to win.

There are times when it's not on him, though. The battle of the trenches is the big thing to keep an eye on. This matchup will come down to the play in the trenches.

How do we know what to expect, though? How do we measure success in the trenches, where there are very few stats to calculate?

One website that puts an interesting an effective spin on it is Cold, Hard Football Facts. "Potentate of Pigskin" Kerry Byrne has formulated the Offensive and Defensive Hog Index, which rank a team's trench play based on stats directly impacted by the men down front: Yards per rush attempt, negative pass plays (percentage of pass plays that result in a sack or interception) and third down conversion percentage.

Last year, New England ranked first in the Offensive Hog Index, while the Dolphins ranked fifth in the Defensive Hog Index. Let's take a look at the specifics.

Ranking	Team	YPA	#	NPP%	#	3rd%	#	Avg
1	New England Patriots	4.35	10	5.64	3	48.22	2	5.0
5	Miami Dolphins	3.58	4	9.24	11	37.17	11	8.

The two sides were clearly good at what they did in various ways last year. 

It may not all come down to the sacks, though. Since January 1, 2008, Tom Brady has been sacked two or more times in 15 games, and is 11-4 in those games. Pretty convincing record, right?

Consider this: The first loss was in Super Bowl XLII against the New York Giants' No. 1-ranked D-Hogs. Well, that's a start.

The second loss was by one point to the Indianapolis Colts. You know, 4th-and-2. A fourth-quarter choke job with a 17-point lead can't fall on the offensive line.

The other two losses came in the playoffs to some of the best defenses in the league those years. The Baltimore Ravens ranked seventh in the DHI when they knocked off New England at Gillette Stadium in that 33-14 beatdown. The New York Jets were the league's fourth-best D-Hogs last year, and they rode those hogs through Foxborough, MA all the way to Pittsburgh, PA and took Brady down five times along the journey.

As the league's fifth-best defense in the DHI in 2010, if Miami is able to get the pressure on Brady early, they could dictate the tempo of the game—much like three of the four teams listed above were able to do. 

Not only that, they could dictate Brady's performance. He was a shell of himself in each of those three playoff losses, looking hurried and worried almost every time he dropped back to throw.

Brady has battled through some difficult circumstances plenty of times in the past with 11 wins in games where he's sacked multiple times, but when the tempo is dictated by the defense, it makes his job a lot tougher as a quarterback.

Creating pressure is a great place to start, but the Dolphins will need to create turnovers to have a chance. Jonathan Comey over at CHFF had some words of wisdom on how important it is for Miami to get multiple turnovers.

"

In 11 of Miami’s 16 games last year, the defense forced either one or no turnovers, and they went 3-8 in those games...Miami was No. 28 in interceptions (11) last year, and considering their excellent front seven, there’s little excuse for it.

"

The question now becomes whether Miami's corners can step up and get the job done. They have the right personnel to create mismatches, with big, physical corners capable of jamming and disrupting the timing style offense run by New England. 

As evidenced by these numbers from Football Outsiders, the Dolphins had troubles in coverage, ranking 22nd against running backs and 24th against No. 1 receivers. All that, despite ranking eighth against the pass. Hmm...

Most notably, though, they ranked 28th in the league against tight ends, and as we all know, New England has two very good ones in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. The duo has had a strong training camp and preseason, and that should continue Monday night against a Dolphins defense that has struggled to cover tight ends.

In the end, the pressure can make up for some lapses in coverage, especially if Brady doesn't have time to go through his reads. Miami's best chance, as it always is against New England, is to create as much pressure and wreak as much havoc as possible with their defensive front against New England's offensive line.

The Dolphins, however, have proven that they need to get a complementary effort from their secondary to win football games. 

Which way this battle will go is anyone's guess, but chances are the first few minutes will go a long way in determining and foreshadowing that outcome.

On the edge of your seat yet?

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter  @erikfrenz.