UFC on Fox: Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson Full Breakdown

For the first time in UFC history, the heavyweight belt is being contested on free TV.  It's a huge milestone for the UFC.

But this is not the only exciting fight on the card.  While it may only be a preliminary bout, Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida could very well main event any other card.

Each is an exciting fighter at the top of his division, and the winner will be Frankie Edgar's next challenger.

There has never been more pressure on either fighter.  While this fight won't be shown on free TV, it will give the winner his first chance to challenge the champion for the UFC lightweight belt.

Striking

Both men keep up great paces in their fights, both on the ground and on their feet.

Henderson has a Tae Kwon Do background and is competent on his feet.  He was outstruck by Anthony Pettis in the WEC, but only barely.  His striking looked solid against Bocek and Miller.

Guida moves.  A lot.  This has frustrated some of his recent opponents, who simply have been unable to hit him.  However, Guida is still able to hit his opponents.

That said, while Guida has very confusing movement, his striking technique is lacking.  Henderson might have some trouble landing as many shots as he likes on Guida, but I think he'll have the edge in the striking department.

Advantage: Henderson

Submissions/Submission Defense

Half of Guida's wins are by submission.  Most recently, he finished Gomi with a second-round guillotine.

Henderson is a brown belt in BJJ, and has some solid credentials.  He has good submission offense, but what's most incredible about Henderson's ground game is his submission defense.

Donald Cerrone, a very strong submission fighter, put Henderson in all sorts of nasty positions, but couldn't get the finish.  He failed on eight submission attempts, almost all of which looked like they could be fight ending.  His submission defense looked similarly impressive against Jim Miller and Mark Bocek.

Advantage: Henderson

Wrestling

Before his fight with Jim Miller, I might have ranked Henderson's wrestling below Guida's.  Not anymore.

Both men are strong wrestlers, but Henderson has been far more dominant as of late.  He took down Jim Miller on all of his attempts, and did serious damage once he was on top.

Guida has good wrestling technique, but he hasn't proven himself against another wrestler in a while.

Henderson was more successful in taking down Miller, a former D1 wrestler, than Guida was in taking down Pettis, a fighter with no serious wrestling credentials.  I give the edge to Henderson. 

Advantage: Henderson 

Clinch

Both fighters like to impose their wills, so they each end up in the clinch a fair bit.  I think Henderson is better at taking his opponents down from the clinch and deals more damage from the clinch.  Slight edge to Henderson.

Advantage: Henderson

Cardio

Both of these men are absolute cardio machines.

I can not think of a single fight where I've seen Guida tire, or even slow down significantly.  As far as I can recall, Henderson also hasn't looked tired in a three-round fight.

Both fighters keep up tremendous paces, and neither of them tires often.  However, Henderson has slowed down slightly the two times he went to championship rounds, and Guida keeps up a faster fight.  Guida gets the slight advantage.

Advantage: Guida

Chin

Both fighters have fantastic chins.  Neither has any KO losses to their names, and both have been hit by very heavy punchers.

But if I had to pick, I'd give Henderson the advantage.  I've seen Guida rocked more times and more badly.  Huerta and Florian both secured submission finishes after hurting Guida.  I give the slight advantage to Henderson.

Advantage: Henderson

Desire

Neither fighter is a quitter, but Guida gets the edge on this one.

Henderson has said himself he doesn't really care who he fights.  He wants to win, and he'd like the title, but the desire he has shown has not matched the desire Guida has shown.

For most of Guida's career, he's been a gatekeeper.  He would put up exciting performances against mid-level lightweights and come out victorious, but was always beaten by higher-echelon foes.

But upon joining Jackson's camp, Guida has improved tremendously, and for the first time in his long UFC career he can taste the title.

Guida wants this more than Henderson does.

Advantage: Guida

Winner: Ben Henderson

Henderson showed a lot of people what he's made of when he dominated Miller in his last fight, who at the time was the consensus third-best lightweight in the UFC.

Guida's best chance is to avoid letting Henderson get ahold of him.  He should move around and try to outpoint him the way he outpointed Gomi in their first round, and only go for takedowns if he's absolutely certain he can get the fight down.

Still, I think Henderson's wrestling and the sledgehammers he throws from top position will be enough to overcome Guida's slight high-speed fighting style.  I see him winning this fight the same way he won his last two fights: dominantly.

Henderson by decision