Fantasy Football: Week 12 Preview, Part One

This has to have been one of the craziest weeks I've dealt with in a long time. The updates have been far less frequent, so we here at the 'Table apologize for that. Blame the liquor. It's the only way to go. It won't stop us from setting up the games for the weekend and going over who to start and who to sit.

Let's get to it. 

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Who to Start: Hines Ward, Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Who to Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Cedric Benson, Chad Johnson

What to Expect: Early this season, we mentioned that Cincinnati's pass defense is an underrated group. Last week, we saw their skill in action.

The Bengals picked off Donovan McNabb three times and forced a fumble. This week, they get Roethlisberger, who has been interception prone already this season. I'd expect the Steelers to focus on the ground game, giving Parker and Moore plenty of chances to take it up the middle against the Bengals.

Parker has more upside here, so long as he stays healthy and can get on the field.

I wouldn't sleep on Moore though. The Steelers used him in goal-line situations last week, and they could do so again. I'll give him 50 yards and a touchdown. In deeper leagues, he's a flex option. I'd certainly rather play Parker.

In the passing game, you can keep Ward active, because he does seem to get his catches every week. I'd avoid Holmes and Washington if possible. After watching the matchup last week, this doesn't seem to be the type of scenario where they would thrive.

On the Bengals' side, the offense is still largely inept. Fitzpatrick completed passes last week but still couldn't get the team into the end zone. I'd keep Housh in the lineup, but look elsewhere to fill out the rest of the dance card. Just doesn't work against one of the games best defenses.

As I'm writing this, Chad Johnson has been deactivated for tonight's game.

The same is true with Benson and the running game. It's an unfavorable matchup on the road. Division games between these two rarely lead to large point totals.

Sleeper Pickup: Wouldn't call anyone here a sleeper pickup. Moore is still likely owned in most leagues.

Houston at Cleveland

Who to Start: Sage Rosenfels, Kevin Walter, Brady Quinn, Steve Heiden, Jamal Lewis
 
Who to Sit: Ahman Green
 
What to Expect: Expect to find some points being put up in this one.

This is one of Quinn's last solid matchups this season, and the Browns will look to exploit that against a weak Texans secondary. I like his chances of throwing for three touchdowns against Houston. Heiden, Edwards, and Stallworth will all get in on this action.

Quinn has also shown the ability to run the football effectively and could account for 40 more yards on the ground.

With Winslow needing an MRI on his shoulder, I'd expect to see more of Heiden this week, particularly in running situations as a blocker. Expect, though, that the Browns will use him as a decoy there. He has great hands and Quinn has shown a propensity for finding his tight ends.

Jamal Lewis will be up against a defense that he needs to perform against. There is no way he should be held under 70 yards and a touchdown in this one. He's a solid option for owners.

In Houston, Rosenfels has had his fair share of problems. The Cleveland secondary is better than you might think, but they were beaten by Trent Edwards last week, once he remembered what color jersey his team was wearing.

Rosenfels is a deep-league or two quarterback league play, but he shouldn't disappoint in those formats.

Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Andre Johnson will all be fine starts in the passing game. Look at Walter as a WR3 or flex option, and you'll be satisfied with his 80 yards and a score.

Steve Slaton should be able to produce even more than Marshawn Lynch last week. Over 100 yards on the ground with a touchdown is in the works for him.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Heiden. Just like the way that Quinn looks to use the tight ends, especially if Winslow is hurt.

San Francisco at Dallas

Who to Start: Isaac Bruce, Shaun Hill, Roy Williams
 
Who to Sit: Felix Jones, Josh Morgan
 
What to Expect: Well, this isn't going to quite be Irvin and Rice, but we should see a better game than many think.

Don't get all excited over the 49ers defense this week. They got a weak Rams team. The Cowboys are much more explosive offensively. Barber is going to be a great play in the running game. No concerns on that front.

In the passing game, start all the regulars. No surprises here, as Witten, Owens, and Romo should all be in for decent days. After watching Romo get more comfortable as the game went on last week, I would have no issues starting him this week.

Roy Williams is our only stretch play, but he should be fine as a flex in most formats.

I'm a little bit more of a believer in the 49ers offense each week. I don't think you can measure them based on bad teams, but you can start to develop a rapport and consistency as a result of those games.

Hill gets a laboring secondary that should provide openings to throw. In deep leagues, his 240 yards and two touchdowns will be solid.

I like Bruce and Vernon Davis to catch those balls, but I'm not sold on Morgan this week as a play. Just too inconsistent to recommend.

Frank Gore should be an obvious play, no worries there.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hill. He's had two solid performances in a row. This is a good spot to use him if you need a matchup play.

Tampa at Detroit

Who to Start: Warrick Dunn, Jeff Garcia, Antonio Bryant, Kevin Smith
 
Who to Sit: Daunte Culpepper, Earnest Graham
 
What to Expect: Expect another ugly game for the Lions.

Tampa's defense has given owners nothing to be concerned about, and if you are starting any Lion other than Smith or Calvin Johnson, you're making your own bed here. I know the Bucs haven't been a good road team, but this is Detroit! That's all I have to say about the Lions, so let's just move on.

In Tampa, this is finally a week where you could make some gains using the Bucs offense. With Graham out, Dunn will get the bulk of the work. Against the Lions, even Dunn should be in for 90 yards and a score. Start him with confidence. They'll need to bleed the clock once they jump out to a huge lead.

I like Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant in this matchup as well. You can't beat playing the Lions as a cure for what ails an offense. Garcia is a matchup start in any league. If you're worried about starting your big gun against a tough defense (Favre, McNabb), you could look here and be satisfied with the play. A risk, but a gut call.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Dunn. He's the workhorse now.

New York Jets at Tennessee

Who to Start: Justin Gage, Kerry Collins, Bo Scaife, Dustin Keller
 
Who to Sit: Brett Favre, Leon Washington
 
What to Expect: Expect teams to continue to exploit the Jets through the air.

Matt Cassel put up 400 yards. Read that statement again. You telling me that Kerry Collins won't be solid against this team? Collins threw for three touchdowns last week, and I think he can do it again, with Gage and Brandon Jones at the ready. Bo Scaife gives him a great outlet receiver as well.

The Jets are tough against the run, and using Collins to throw the football will take the pressure off the running game. Really, great matchup. Pick up Collins. Do it. You know you want to.

I'm less optimistic about White and Johnson this week. I'd look at both as an RB3 or flex option, just because of how tough the Jets have been against the ground game. They've held some solid backs in check, and the Tennessee duo could be in for a long day here.

On the Jets side, they get a team that has thrived on defense. I'm staying away from Favre here. I'd use Keller because of how consistent he has been, and Coles is likely going to make plays. Even Cotchery.

I just think the risk here is that Favre throws for less than 200 yards and is picked off at least twice. Not the type of day I would want in this one.

I've been high on Washington most of the season, but I don't think that this is the time to use him here. Not against a team that is tough on defense and makes their living that way. Thomas Jones is still the starter, and Washington is a change of pace. There will not be a pace to change here. If you have other options, avoid Leon.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Keller. Two good weeks in a row. I think this is three.

Buffalo at Kansas City

Who to Start: Tyler Thigpen, Mark Bradley, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson
 
Who to Sit: Trent Edwards, Bills Receivers not named "Evans"
 
What to Expect: Expect the Bills to run and the Chiefs to pass.

Teams are making a living running the ball against the AFC West. This won't be any different. The Bills will look to build on the performance Lynch had last week against the Browns. That's a good thing for fantasy owners. The Saints ran the ball well against the Chiefs last week, and the Bills have two backs built for it.

I'm not playing Trent Edwards or any receiver other than Evans until it gets to a point that Edwards stops telegraphing his passes. If he makes a mistake early, he becomes deliberate in throwing the football, and that creates more mistakes. In any event, the Bills should be running here, not passing.

The spread offense employed by the Chiefs has created solid opportunities for throwing the football. I'm at the point of recommending Bowe, Bradley, and Gonzalez as options until proven otherwise. They've been good, and the Bills weak/injured secondary isn't going to be the one that stops them.

Larry Johnson isn't the best play of the week, but you could do worse in your flex spot. Don't reach for him, but he can be used if you normally would.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Thigpen and Bradley. Yup, I'm going to keep on this one.

Chicago at St. Louis

Who to Start: Donnie Avery, Rashied Davis, Devin Hester, Greg Olsen
 
Who to Sit: Antonio Pittman, Marc Bulger
 
What to Expect: The Bears can be beaten through the air. The Rams can be beaten, period.

Bulger has shown more inconsistency than anything else, but this Bears team has been thrown on regularly. He has the weapons, but I'm just not sold on him as a starter. I like the use of Holt and Avery simply because they aren't the ones throwing the football.

Avery hauled in nine passes for 93 yards last week, and similar numbers aren't out of the questions here. Add a touchdown as well. Holt will be a fine play, hovering around the same type of numbers as Avery.

Don't go and look to use the Rams running game, though. Pittman may have been ok against lesser teams, but the Bears do not give up big games on the ground. Even if Steven Jackson gets the ball, don't look to use him as anything above an RB3. We saw what happened to White and Johnson in the Tennessee game.

On the Bears side, I'm thinking that Forte MIGHT have a good game here. Through the air and on the ground, the Bears back is going to be the key cog in the offense. Over 130 total yards and two touchdowns for Forte.

I like Davis and Hester this week as receiving options and wouldn't hesitate to use Olsen either in a pinch. Orton will be fine as a starter. I wouldn't use Grossman personally, but even if he ends up under center, it won't impact the type of day you'll get from the Bears offense.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Avery. PPR league players should rejoice here. Avery will be in for a good day.

New England at Miami

Who to Start: Ricky Williams, Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn, Wes Welker, Matt Cassel
 
Who to Sit: Anthony Fasano, New England Running Backs
 
What to Expect: Expect that the Patriots won't be surprised by the Wildcat formation.

Look, we all know that the Pats are preparing for it. We also know that the Dolphins have said that there are wrinkles they haven't used to this point. I'd expect to see them unveil a few new tricks to the formation here to keep the Pats off balance.

There's no doubt that beating New England a second time in a season isn't easy, so look for Miami to pull out all the stop.

With that, I'd look for bigger games from Williams, Camarillo, and Ginn. Pennington can be started in deeper leagues, as the Dolphins will look to control the game using short passing as much as the run. Especially with New England's losses in the secondary piling up. I'd use both receivers in PPR formats and as flex options in all leagues.

I like Williams better than Brown, just because of the potential for him to see more of the changes to the formation.

For New England, this isn't the same Matt Cassel they had against the Dolphins last time. Welker and Moss will be in for better days, and Cassel will try to beat them through the air the way he did the Jets. I like all three in this one.

I'm staying away from the Pats running game this week, as you still have to beat Miami in the passing game. The front seven have done a very good job getting pressure on the quarterback and shutting down weaker runners.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Williams. Just a feeling.

Minnesota at Jacksonville

Who to Start: David Garrard, Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Sidney Rice
 
Who to Sit: Fred Taylor
 
What to Expect: The Vikings are tough against the run, and softer against the pass. The Jags just need to start playing well.

I think this is still going to be the Jones-Drew show, as the Vikings will be able to keep Fred Taylor in check. Jones-Drew is just more explosive and has the ability to create big plays in a variety of different ways. He's scored five touchdowns in the last two weeks, and two more this week wouldn't surprise me.

Garrard is going to have to do some of this work with his arm. Matt Jones and Reggie Williams should be used here, as the Vikings can be worked over in the secondary. I like Marcedes Lewis for a touchdown in this one from the tight end position.

For the Vikings, they go up against a team that gives up about two passing touchdowns a game. I think Frerotte hits that to go with 230 yards. Berrian and Rice are the two major targets in this one.

You start Adrian Peterson, that's about all to say there. I'm not using Chester Taylor this week. I think between the work in the air and Peterson, there just won't be enough touches to make playing the secondary running back worth it in this one.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Rice. He's managed to make some solid grabs in recent weeks, and I like that to continue in this one.