NFL Odds Week 1: 5 Teams Who Will Cover Spread

Football season is the kind of thing that brings out the worst in people. You know, things like gluttony, alcoholism, a lust to see violence and, in some circles, ordinary lust.

It also causes people to gamble, which some think is a bad thing. But me? I'm okay with it.

Then again, I guess I'm only okay with it when I do well with my picks. The trick in that regard, I think, is to locate the games where the spread is not only valid, but actually quite conservative too. The teams that will be covering them are what we call "locks."

In Week 1 of the NFL regular season, I was able to count five teams who are locks to cover the spread.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

When the Bills and Chiefs last hooked up, it took a field goal in overtime for the Chiefs to come away with a win. As such, a five-and-a-half-point spread in their favor might strike you as a little suspicious.

Not me. It strikes me as just right, and I think the Chiefs should have no problem covering it. They are a team that thrives on the run, and they just so happen to be facing a Bills team that was one of the worst teams in the league when it came to stopping the rush last season.

In addition, the Bills offense isn't going to scare anybody. Especially not the Chiefs, who I think are underrated defensively.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.0)

Cam Newton is going to get his very first regular season start in this game. Because of that, the advantage is clearly with the Cardinals.

Listen, Newton is going to be a good quarterback someday. It's just not going to be soon. He has too much to learn, and the team around him is pretty dreadful.

As for the Cardinals, I wouldn't go so far as to call them elite, but they're not bad either. They definitely have a much-improved offense thanks to the addition of Kevin Kolb. They should have their way with a Panthers defense that, let's face it, is not very good.

I'm not so sure this one's going to be a blowout. But a 10-point margin of victory? I can see that.

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers (-9.0)

I'll wager that the Chargers have the most dangerous offense in the NFL. Because they do, you see.

I'll also wager that they're going to cover the spread against the Vikings, as big as it is. The Chargers are going to be at home, and I don't see any reason why Philip Rivers and Co. won't be able to pick apart Minnesota's defense.

Well, maybe if Adrian Peterson and the Vikings offense keeps the defense off the field, which is a possibility. That said, I'm willing to trust that San Diego's defense can corral Peterson.

When they do, it will probably because they were able to corral Donovan McNabb, which shouldn't be difficult.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4.0)

For what it's worth, I think the Jets are doomed to disappoint this season. There are a number of reasons why they will.

But for their game against the Cowboys, none of them are relevant. For as overrated as the Jets are, the Cowboys are even more overrated. It's amazing how much a 6-10 team can fool people just by making a few changes here and there.

If you are fooled by the Cowboys, don't be. They're not going to be as lousy as they were last year, but they're still going to be lousy. With a little help from their very good defense, the Jets should have no trouble beating them by four points.

New England Patriots (-7.0) at Miami Dolphins

You always have to think twice before picking a road team that is favored by seven points. You're just asking for trouble if you do.

This game is the exception to the rule. By all accounts, the Patriots are the most loaded team in the AFC, and they're going to be facing a team in the Dolphins that is the very embodiment of the word "meh."

Seven points? Heck, I would pick the Pats if it was 14 points.