Woodward Stakes: Havre De Grace Looks to Step Right in Horse of the Year Talks

The final Grade I stakes race today at Saratoga is the highly anticipated Woodward Stakes. With no nomination fees, it is run at a one-and-one-eight miles distance, and is open to horses ages three and older.

The Woodward is a very important race for horses looking to win the Horse of The Year Award.

Curlin won it on 2008 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Rachel Alexandra became also the first filly to win this race. Both Curlin and Rachel Alexandra won the top award for horses those years.

Eight contenders will run this year, including Havre De Grace who is looking to emulate Rachel Alexandra this year and become just the second female horse to win this race. The lineup for this race is:

1. Ice Box – Jockey Jose Lezcano, trainer: Nick Zito, morning line odds 12/1.

2. Mission Impazible – Jockey: John Velazquez, trainer: Todd Pletcher, morning line odds: 10/1.

3. Giant Oak – Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan, trainer: Chris Block, morning Line odds: 8/1.

4. Rule – Jockey: Javier Castellano, trainer: Todd Pletcher, morning line odds: 5/1.

5. Convocation – Jockey: Rajiv Maragh, trainer: Jimmy Jerkens, morning line odds: 20/1.

6. Havre De Grace – Jockey: Ramon Dominguez, trainer: Larry Jones, morning line odds: 8/5.

7. Flat Out – Jockey: Alexis Solis, trainer: Charles Dickey, morning line odds: 5/2.

8. Mambo Meister – Jockey: Fernando Jara, trainer: Philip Gleaves, morning line odds: 10/1.

I can understand why Havre De Grace is being favored. She is having a great campaign against the mares and her Beyers are up there with the best horses.

As I said, I understand it, but I don’t think she should be the favorite to win it. This is not Rachel Alexandra here. She has only one Grade I to show for.

The field is not an elite one, and is not filled with Grade I winners. The issues to me is that she should not be a big favorite without proving herself here first.

If she wins, she will definitely be in the mix for the Horse of the Year award talks. But she has some serious competition to overcome.

Ice Box, who was a top three-year-old contender last year, returned last month from a 10 month layoff. He finished second to Convocation in a race where he had to set the pace.

It was very uncommon for a deep closer like Ice Box to go up front, but there was no speed in that race. He has been working out very well and should be better this time.

Mission Impazible and Giant Oak are two horses that when you least expect them, come out and run a great race.

Mission Impazible seems like he is up for a good race today. Whether that would be good enough to win remains to be seen.

Giant Oak and Flat Out are the deep closers here. They could be affected by the lack of big speed up front today.

Rule should be the pace setter here, and he has no clear challenger for it. He comes from grinding out a win at the Birdstone after being bumped and taken five wide.

He fought all the way and came out on top. He will not have that much challenge early here; he could wire the field. It will be his third race after a shot layoff.

Convocation and Mambo Meister step up a bit in company here. They both are not that behind and are within the expected range to improve and be able to contend here.

Mambo Meister has registered three straight Beyers in the 100’s, with his last an improvement at 110. He will be ridden by Fernando Jara, and I still remember his race with Invasor at the Belmont.

Could he pull up another upset like that? The horse certainly has the chance. He has been training well up to this race.

As for the race, I see Rule on the uncontested lead while Havre De Grace and Mission Impazible should play the stalkers role right behind him.

The top three jockeys in Saratoga up front, it will come down to when Dominguez and Johnny V will decide to start challenging Javier and Rule.

I can see Convocation and Mambo Meister behind this front group, followed by Ice Box, Flat Out, and Giant Oak.

I will go on record early and say that I don’t expect either of the deep closers to win this race. It just does not setup well for them.

Dominguez and Velazquez should go midway through the back stretch and checkup on Rule. During the final turn, the pace should start to pick up with Havre De Grace and Rule battling it out.

Mission Impazible should start to slowly fade and Mambo Meister will pass him for third. The trailers will also start their move at this point.

In the stretch I expect this to be a duel to the end, but with Rule maintaining about a half-length over Havre De Grace. Not too far for third I expect a close finish between Mambo Meister and Flat Out, followed by Giant Oak.

- Carlos Torres