Fantasy Football Week 12: Start and Sits

Fantasy Football’s Week 12 is crunch time. ESPN leagues have two weeks left in the season—others have three weeks.

The final push is here and hopefully you are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. If you are not in it, you can still play a big role of what happens in your league.

Playoff spots are still at stake. So, if you compete and continue to work the wire, you could pull off an upset victory, and that loss can be critical to someone making or not making the playoffs.

You could play spoiler.

Start of the Week

This weeks’ "Start of the Week" is someone you might not have thought about starting recently. His nomination is set up by some news that was released on Monday.

According to the Tampa Tribune, Coach Jon Gruden says it is likely that starting running back Earnest Graham will not play the rest of the season due to an ankle injury.

John Gruden is one of those head coaches that if he gives praise it means nothing as he constantly praises his players. His statement on Graham though is probably very accurate.  

This vaults our start of the week to No. 1 on the Buccaneers' depth chart; Warrick Dunn.

The Bucs face the Lions this week, who, after a slight surge of competitiveness, have proved they do not need Matt Millen to be a bad team.

The past three weeks, the Detroit "Kittens" have given up 593 all-purpose yards to running backs and six rushing touchdowns. I expect there to be a committee and Warrick will not get all the carries, but he will receive a significant amount of touches to vault him over 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.

Warrick Dunn is 33 years old though; wear and tear gives me concerns as to how much of the load he can carry the rest of the way. Look at Dunn to be a quick grab-start-drop running back. If you have an open roster spot and lose the Dunn sweepstakes this week, look to add Cadillac Williams instead.

Again, Dunn’s age concerns me that he might get injured and Williams has a good chance to be worked up to starter for the playoffs. Look at Williams as a deep flier for the future and pick him up as such.

QBs to start

The safest and an almost must start is Green Bay's Quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He has done well and you should have faith in him. If you happened to take him late and have a stud above him, look to start Rodgers this week.

His matchup versus a weak Saints defense should have fantasy owners licking their chops. This game looks to be a shootout, which bodes well for Rodgers.

Brady Quinn has game tape on him after making two NFL starts, so he won’t have the advantage he held two weeks ago. As I am keeping an eye on Quinn while I am writing this, he has begun to throw the ball down the field, and I am still impressed with what he is doing.

This Brady is playing Houston, who has given up eight passing touchdowns the past three weeks. This Browns team has play makers and I expect Quinn to find them and score.

The weakest of my starts this week, if you are in a quarterback by committee, is Sage Rosenfels. Early reports still have Matt Schaub missing this week and Sage getting the start.

Looking at Week Nine and 10’s stats, and Trent Edwards being able to move the ball on the Browns, this matchup looks like it could be one of the best of the week. Still, Sage has had turnover issues so he does come with some risk. However, I expect him to throw for a bunch of yards and score multiple times.

If you don’t feel comfortable with Rosenfels, try Kerry Collins versus the New York Jets. Collins can throw the ball and he might have to if he wants to win. I do not expect him to exceed my 18 points start criteria, but he should put up solid numbers.

RBs to start

In this column, recently, we have watched and highlighted who the Kansas City Chiefs play. They indeed have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

In the last three weeks, Kansas City has improved their run defense and is giving up less than 100 rushing yards to running backs. Kansas City is now ranked 19th (no longer last) in the league in average fantasy points allowed over the last three weeks.

They are slightly in the bottom half of the league. I think part of this is LaDainian Tomlinson not being the back we all expected when we drafted him.

This week, the Kansas City watch gives up the Buffalo Bills.

Marshawn Lynch has not been that good lately, but he showed me spirit in Monday nights' game. I think Lynch will still be a good start this week, so do not consider benching him.

Derek Lofland, a fellow writer and Maniaxs’ NFL director, summed-up Tomlinson’s 2008 status very well in last weeks’ comments. Derek stated:

"L.T. is not an every week start at this point. He has only two 100-yard games this season, only four touchdowns, and most weeks he is at 20 yards receiving. The problem is that you won't get fair value for him on the market. You'll get offers for Chad Johnson, Braylon Edwards, or some other struggling player.

"My advice is to treat L.T. like he is just another back. Sit him against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. Start him if you don't have better matchups against Indy, Oakland, and Kansas City and hope for the best.

"If someone comes along with an offer that makes sense, consider it. But chances are the offer is going to be so below market value that you'll just have to stick with him."

In short, L.T. is no longer a must start every week. I have some concerns about his ability to produce for the rest of the season.

This week provides a great matchup for him, with the Indianapolis Colts trying to stop him. The Colts have given up six total touchdowns and 150 all-purpose yards average to running backs over the last three weeks.  

Look for Tomlinson to be a running back two this week, with potential to explode out to a running back one.

The year of the rookie running back continues. Last week, we entered a new rookie to become productive, Peyton Hillis. He rushed for only 44 yards but had two touchdowns.

Shenanigans says Tatum Bell will get touches and maybe even break a couple, but the smart money says that versus Oakland, Hillis (who played with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in Arkansas) will be in a good position to grab a touchdown or two, plus some yards, making him a very productive play this week.

WRs to start

This column has gotten away from starting Donnie Avery every week, as he hit a tough patch of games. This week, the matchup is favorable to him. Chicago has been weak versus wideouts. Look for Avery, despite the running-back play, to put up good start numbers this week.

Houston should be able to exploit the Browns passing game. Andre Johnson is a gimme; you are starting him, right? Look for Kevin Walter to grab a touchdown this week.

Continue reading >>>