Notre Dame Football: Game 1 vs. University of South Florida Bulls

Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m., the much-anticipated 2011 season gets officially underway as the 16th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host, for the first time, the University of South Florida Bulls.

In 2010, the teams recorded matched 8-5 campaigns, which earned the Bulls a fifth-place finish in the Big East. The season for the Bulls was up and down, with the biggest win coming in a 23-20 overtime win against in-state rival Miami.

South Florida ranked low in most categories last year, especially offensively. It ranked 101st in passing (164.5 yards per game), 71st in rushing (144.8 yards per game) and 85th in points scored (24 points per game).

The brighter side of the ball ranked 22nd in points against (20 points per game), but lost the starting defensive line and half of the linebackers to graduation.

For some reason, many pundits are projecting this game to be tight, if not a Bulls upset. Several analysts have this as their "upset special" despite the 10.5 point line.

The Bulls do return a third-year starter in quarterback B.J. Daniels. A redshirt junior, he completed 58 percent of his passes for 1,685 yards with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He also rushed for 259 yards on 112 carries with five touchdowns.

USF also lost its top running back to graduation and expects to be led on the ground by redshirt junior Demetrius Murray, who carried 121 times for 533 yards and four touchdowns a year ago.

The biggest wonder to me about the talk of a Notre Dame upset in Week 1 isn't who is returning, but how they are evaluated.

While USF and Notre Dame may have each played to an 8-5 finish, and each count beating the Miami Hurricanes as a defining moment, their seasons are not equal.

The Irish played nine teams that went to bowl games and USC, which finished with an 8-5 mark. The Irish's record against bowl-bound teams was 6-5. The two teams that the Irish played that did not qualify for a bowl game were Purdue and Western Michigan, who were beaten at the hands of the Irish by a combined 35 points.

The Bulls' record against teams that finished with a winning record was 2-5, discounting their season-opening win against FCS Stony Brook. USF's record against bowl teams (including a bowl victory over 6-7 Clemson) included a 38-14 loss to Florida, the only ranked team on their schedule.

They also dropped a 13-9 decision to Syracuse, a 20-6 tilt with West Virginia, a 17-10 contest with Pittsburgh and fell, 19-16, to Connecticut.

They also looked less than impressive in beating 2-10 Western Kentucky, 24-12.

To their credit, they did roll up on Stony Brook to the tune of 59-14, and 4-8 Florida Atlantic, 31-3.

The rest of the year, they had a hard time separating themselves from their competition, and did not register a win greater than 10 points.

They edged 4-8 Cincinnati, 38-30, slipped passed 4-8 Rutgers, 28-27, held off 7-6 Louisville, 24-21 in overtime, upset 7-6 Miami, 23-20 in overtime, and outlasted 6-7 Clemson in the Mieneke Car Care Bowl, 31-26.

Looking at common opponents, Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh, 23-17, while the Bulls fell, 17-10. The Irish hammered Miami, 33-17, while the Bulls won by three.

We must also judge USF's already low offensive statistics against their competition. They ran up large numbers against Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Cincinnati but struggled to move the ball for much of the season.

Defensively, they also benefited statistically from dominating a few teams while being dominated by many others. Potentially their best defensive effort came in the loss to Pittsburgh, but they were gashed by Florida, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia.

Comparatively, Notre Dame returns more starters, and has improved depth at nearly every position versus a year ago. Had these teams met a year ago, you would have expected that the Irish would have been the favorite, and nothing has changed here.

Notre Dame in recent memory does have a terrible habit of playing down to the competition, and losing games that it should win.

Make no mistake, this is a game that it should win. If the Brian Kelly era is to be different than the Charlie Weis era, this is a game that Notre Dame HAS to win.

The Irish are the more talented team, and are hosting the game. I'm not a point spread better, so I have no care as to whether they cover the 10.5 or not. Just so long as they win.

Prediction: 28-17 Irish