College Basketball: 10 Most Overrated Teams Entering the 2011-12 Season

Even with the 2011-12 season’s tipoff months away, there’s no shortage of predictions for what the Top 25 will look like to start the year. And, inevitably, some of those predictions are going to be off the mark.

Some teams, of course, will come from nowhere and surprise the pundits. Here, however, it’s time to focus on the other side of things: the teams who won’t be meeting their high preseason expectations.

All of these squads are ranked in the early preseason Top 25 by at least one of ESPN, Yahoo! or Fox Sports. Some are good teams being rated as if they were great ones, and others will be lucky to stay in the rankings at all.

Read on for the 10 teams whose expectations are just too high for their talent.

10. Pittsburgh

It’s never a good idea to bet against the Pitt Panthers’ defense, but defense alone may not be enough in next season’s Big East.

With Brad Wanamaker’s playmaking and leadership gone, the Panthers’ offense faces a daunting challenge.

Ashton Gibbs is a terrific player, and his return is the main reason Pitt is being treated as a Big East power once again.

Still, with three of the top five scorers gone from last year’s roster, even standout freshman Khem Birch may not be enough to keep the Panthers on top of basketball’s toughest conference.

9. UCLA

Size is a great thing to have, and UCLA will have it in spades next season, led by 6’8” rising senior Reeves Nelson and 6’10” rising sophomores Joshua Smith and Anthony Stover.

That front-line talent makes the Bruins an early favorite in the wide-open Pac-12.

It does not, however, make them Top 25 material.

The early departures of Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee will take a serious toll on an already-inconsistent perimeter game.

Unless Lazeric Jones improves appreciably on his disappointing 3.7 assists per game, the Bruins will struggle against high-level competition next season.

8. Marquette

In another conference, Marquette’s combination of tough defense and one high-level scorer would be enough for a comfortable Top 25 spot.

In the Big East, though, the Golden Eagles will have to get lucky to keep a spot in the rankings.

Darius Johnson-Odom is a terrific player, but he’s the only player Marquette has who can be counted on to create his own shots.

Without the athletic Jimmy Butler as a running mate, Johnson-Odom will be the focus of every opposing defense, a challenge even his formidable ability may not be able to meet.

The loss of assists leader Dwight Buycks will make it that much tougher for the Golden Eagles against a conference with many of the country’s best defensive teams.

7. Michigan

As strong as it looked in last year’s tournament (including both an epic demolition of a listless Tennessee team and a two-point loss to mighty Duke), Michigan was an unranked fourth-place finisher in the Big Ten.

From that team, the Wolverines must replace the production of Lakers’ draftee Darius Morris.

Morris led the team in scoring and assists last season, and it’s far from guaranteed that John Beilein’s offense will recover well from his departure.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be asked to step into the leading role after scoring a solid 13.9 points a game last year, but is he a bona fide playmaker or just the son of one?

Unless Hardaway starts looking more like his dad, it’s hard to see him and Zack Novak as enough to make Michigan a Top 25 squad.

6. Louisville

While other Big East teams worry about putting enough of a team around their stars, Louisville faces the opposite problem.

One of the country’s most balanced teams a year ago, the Cardinals may lack the star power to carry them into the ranks of the nation’s best.

Standout point guard Peyton Siva is a rising junior who will provide his share of on-court leadership, but he’s not a scorer the team wants to count on with the game on the line.

The closest thing Louisville had to that kind of player, leading scorer Preston Knowles, is gone without an obvious heir apparent.

Louisville is going to be a very good team, but the Big East’s tendency to cannibalize itself in the rankings bodes ill for the Cardinals’ Top 25 chances.

5. Xavier

Tu Holloway is a first-class combo guard who has a great shot to improve on his third-team All-America finish from 2010-11.

He’s also a good bet to lead the Muksketeers to an A-10 championship.

Neither of those statements, though, is enough to make Xavier a Top 25 team.

Leading rebounder Jamel McLean is gone, and while seven-footer Kenny Frease returns in the middle, it’s anybody’s guess whether this will be the year Frease really puts it together.

Holloway will almost certainly take Xavier back to the tournament, but taking them into the Top 25 is likely beyond his reach.

4. Florida State

They may not be as historically brilliant as last year, but the Seminoles will be a tough defensive team again in 2011-12.

Shot-blocking machine Bernard James is back to anchor FSU in the middle, and most of the rest of the outstanding D returns as well.

Offense, however, will be another story. The team lost its top two scorers (Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen) and its assist leader (Kitchen again).

Singleton’s departure will probably take the defense from incomparable to merely great, and considering that last year’s defense was only good enough for a 10th seed in the tournament, the Seminoles will be lucky to escape the NIT this year.

3. Missouri

With essentially everyone returning from an NCAA tournament team, it’s understandable that Missouri is getting a lot of early Top 25 consideration.

At the same time, this is a team very specifically suited to playing Mike Anderson’s system, and Mike Anderson isn’t the coach anymore.

Even if new head man Frank Haith keeps Anderson’s high-pressure, up-tempo style, it’s hard to imagine him keeping it running as smoothly as Anderson did.

Considering that the Tigers’ lack of reliable half-court offense isn’t likely to improve much this season, it’s tough to call them a Top 25 team at this stage.

2. Duke

Before all the Duke fans in the audience spontaneously combust, “overrated” does not mean “bad.”

Duke certainly deserves to be ranked, but calling them a Top 5 team right now is premature.

Even a program as perennially impressive as Duke’s is going to feel the simultaneous loss of three players like Kyrie Irving, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler.

Even if celebrated freshman Austin Rivers is as good as Irving (and that’s a serious “if”), replacing Singler’s and Smith’s leadership and talent is going to be tough.

In addition, as much size as the 6’10” Plumlee brothers bring, neither sophomore

Mason nor junior Miles has exactly set the ACC on fire to date.

Duke is going to be the second-best team in the conference this season, but it’s a bit early to make Final Four travel plans just yet.

1. Michigan State

The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 19-win season despite the presence of standout guard Kalin Lucas.

With Lucas, Korey Lucious and Durrell Summers gone, the team will be hard pressed to improve on its 9-9 record in the Big Ten.

Multi-talented forward Draymond Green will carry the team, and he and Delvon Roe will grab plenty of rebounds.

Still, Michigan State will need the suspect backcourt to overachieve if they’re going to crack the Top 25 this season.