Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio Rua II: Full Breakdown

At UFC Rio, fans will be treated to a rematch four years in the making.  

At UFC 76, Forrest Griffin shocked the world when he submitted Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, earning him a shot for the title.  

Since the first match, both men have been champions but both have failed to defend it.  

While Griffin has since won two straight, Rua is coming off a loss.  

He's hungry for a win, wants to avenge the loss Griffin handed him on his UFC debut, and wants to please his fans.  

In what will probably be an all-out war, only one fighter can come out on top.

Striking

Shogun Rua is, first and foremost, an elite Muay Thai striker.  

In Pride, he punished his enemies with brutal leg kicks and knees.  He won 9 of his 12 Pride victories by KO or TKO.

Griffin doesn't come from any formal striking discipline, but can still strike with the best of the best.  

He uses good combinations and powerful leg kicks to punish his opponents, the latter of which were instrumental in him taking the title from Rampage Jackson.

The biggest difference between the two is that Shogun Rua has considerable knockout power, whereas Griffin does not.  This notable difference gives Rua the edge in striking.

Advantage: Rua 

Jiu-Jitsu

Both men are strikers first, but each has a black belt in BJJ.  

Shogun primarily uses his BJJ skills to get back to his feet once he's taken down, but does have a few submission victories to his name as well.

Griffin has a very nice ground game.  

He only has two submission victories in the UFC, but he is good at avoiding damage from his back, good at threatening with submissions, and has very solid sweeps.  

He was able to get sidemount on Ortiz with a sweep from guard, and used an omoplata to get on top of Rua in their first fight.  

I think that Griffin is the more dangerous fighter on the ground.

Advantage: Griffin

Wrestling

Neither fighter is an outstanding wrestler, but I give Griffin the edge on this one.  

Griffin appeared to have less trouble taking Griffin down than Rua had taking Griffin down, and I think Griffin's takedown defense is a notch above Shogun's.

Advantage: Griffin

Cardio

Since joining the UFC, Shogun's cardio has been highly questionable.  

His injuries are somewhat to blame, and gassing early in his fights to Coleman and Jones can be attributed to those.  

But he wasn't seriously injured heading into his fight with Griffin, and he gassed in that fight in the second round.  

In contrast, Griffin has never looked very gassed.

Advantage: Griffin

Desire

This isn't always the most relevant factor in a fight, but pure will can sometimes push a fighter past his normal limits.

Shogun is coming off a somewhat humiliating loss to Jon Jones.  

He's fighting in front of his home country of Brazil, and is fighting the man who spoiled his UFC debut.

Griffin surely wants to win, and has never been known as a quitter.  

But I do think that Shogun is going to be more motivated heading into this fight than Griffin is.

Advantage: Rua

Winner: Griffin

I don't think Shogun's striking and determination will be enough to take this fight from Griffin.  

If Griffin fights intelligently,  I have no doubt he would win.  

Griffin has the skills to take Shogun down and punish him on the ground, and has good enough standup to avoid being knocked out if he takes the fight there.

If Shogun is lucky, Griffin won't commit himself fully to taking him down.  

In a standup battle, Rua has the edge.  

But it isn't by an overwhelming margin; even before Shogun gassed in their first fight, the standup was fairly close.  Expect Griffin to win by decision or, if Shogun gasses, with a late TKO or submission finish.