2011 College Football Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes Analysis and Projections

The Iowa Hawkeyes had high expectations in 2010 with numerous All-Big Ten conference players and one of the best rushing defenses in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A), but came up short in close games and finished with an 8-5 record and tied for fourth in the Big Ten. 

The Hawkeyes validated their preseason hype with a 5-1 start, which included victories over nationally ranked Michigan and Penn State, along with a Top 15 ranking in the polls. 

The increased pressure to perform clearly became too much for Iowa to handle; the team lost four of their final six regular-season games by a combined 11 points. 

The downward spiral continued in the weeks leading up to the Hawkeyes' Insight Bowl battle with the Missouri Tigers. 

Iowa's leading rusher, Adam Robinson, and all-time leading receiver, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, were both suspended due to legal issues, but despite missing their top two players the Hawkeyes shocked the nation and upset the nationally ranked Tigers to close out their 2010 campaign. 

Expectations are much lower for Iowa heading into the 2011 season with just five starters returning on each side of the ball and almost no key players returning from the 2010 squad. 

Offense:

The departures of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, Robinson, Johnson-Koulianos and two veteran guards are the most significant losses heading into the season. 

Junior quarterback James Vandenberg will take the reins of the Iowa offense this season and has game experience from the 2009 season (when he nearly engineered an upset over Ohio State and a season-ending victory over Minnesota when Stanzi went down with an ankle injury). 

The success of the offense will depend on Vandenberg's efficiency under center, but sophomore running back Marcus Coker will have to be one of the Big Ten's leading rushers if the Hawkeyes expect to contend in the Legends Division. 

Coker set an Insight Bowl rushing record with 33 carries and 219 yards while filling in for the suspended Robinson, but it remains to be seen whether or not he is capable of similar performances on a consistent basis. 

Junior wide receiver Marvin McNutt will lead an extremely slim receiving corps after an outstanding sophomore season in which he made 53 catches for 861 yards and eight touchdowns. 

All-Big Ten left tackle Riley Reiff and senior right tackle Markus Zusevics both return up front, but the Hawkeyes will have to replace both of their starting guards from a year ago.  

Defense:

Consensus All-American defensive end Adrian Clayborn and All-Big Ten selections Karl Klug and Jeremiah Hunter leave the Hawkeyes' front seven with gaping holes to fill heading into their 2011 campaign. 

Seniors Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns have game experience and are likely to start for Iowa on the defensive line. Freshman Carl Davis and seniors Thomas Nardo and Lebron Daniel are also competing for playing time up front. 

The Hawkeyes have a solid pair of cornerbacks returning for the 2011 season in senior Shaun Prater and junior Greg Castillo, who made some starts and played in Iowa's nickel-and-dime packages last season. Sophomore B.J. Lowery has also starred at cornerback for the Hawkeyes in spring practices. 

Cornerback Micah Hyde has moved back to free safety due to a serious depth issue after losing All-Big Ten safeties Tyler Sash and Chris Greenwood to the NFL. 

Strong safety is Iowa's biggest concern for the upcoming season, with junior walk-on Greg Castillo penciled in as the starter at the moment. Senior Tom Donatell, junior Nick Nielsen and freshmen Nico Law and Cole Fisher are battling for the job as well, but there is little experience among them. 

Prediction:

In the past Iowa has thrived when entering a season with low expectations, but the Hawkeyes have to replace too many talented players to do so in 2011. 

Vandenberg will struggle with only McNutt to throw to consistently in the passing game, and if another running back does not emerge as a consistent performer for the Hawkeyes, Coker will be worn down midway through the season. 

The defense will play well early on, but Iowa's lack of depth will be their biggest weakness all season long and will be too much for the Hawkeyes to overcome. 

The schedule sets up well for the Hawkeyes though, with tough games against Michigan, Michigan State and Northwestern all at home this season. That said, these teams all appear to be heading in a much better direction going into 2011 than Iowa. 

The Hawkeyes should be able to run though non-conference play with relative ease. Barring a let down, they should be able to manhandle Big Ten foes Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue. 

Road trips to Penn State and Nebraska will be difficult for the Hawkeyes and will likely result in losses. 

Projected Record: 7-5 (3-5 Big Ten, Fifth-Place Legends Division)

9/3 - Tennessee Tech - Win

9/10 - @ Iowa State - Win

9/17 - Pittsburgh - Win

9/24 - Louisiana-Monroe - Win

10/8 - @ Penn State - Loss

10/15 - Northwestern - Loss

10/22 - Indiana - Win

10/29 - @ Minnesota - Win

11/5 - Michigan - Loss

11/12 - Michigan State - Loss

11/19 - @ Purdue - Win

11/25 - @ Nebraska - Loss

Zach Dirlam is a Big Ten Columnist for the new website Sports at Work. Check out his blog, Dirlam’s Dirty Dugout Sports Blog, which features this story along with other articles and video reports on the major sports. You can also follow his blog on Twitter, which will provide you with the latest updates about what will be posted on the blog!