Week 11 Could Decide the AFC West

The AFC West is going to be a race to the finish, albeit a sad one. In some of the NFL's divisions, a 5-4 record is last. Out west, that's good enough for first place. The second place team is below .500 and the other two are downright terrible.

I'll start off at the bottom, where the Chiefs and Raiders will compete to see who has the third pick of the draft, assuming the Lions or Bengals don't suddenly go on a winning streak.

Kansas City and Oakand are, for all intents and purposes, eliminated from any dream of contention. That leaves the Chargers and Broncos at the top.

The Chargers have been an enigma all season. From their 0-2 start, to their suddenly terrible pass defense, to the mysterious drop off in LT's production. Philip Rivers is having a career year, but he doesn't seem to be helping the Chargers win games.

San Diego has looked like a 14-2 team at some times and a 3-13 team at other times. They lost to Carolina and Denver in dramatic, heartbreaking fashion, and then blew out the Jets and Patriots. They had trouble getting by Oakland and Kansas City, and couldn't get by the Dolphins, Saints, or Bills. Now comes the hardest stretch of their season. They have to go to Pittsburgh, then play Indianapolis and Atlanta.

The Broncos are a product of an elite passing game, a running game struggling to find itself, a stellar offensive line, and a terrible run defense. The pass defense has been surprisingly stable all season, but that may be due to teams using a run first offense against them.

In any case, Jay Cutler has the ability to win games for this team, as he proved against the Browns. Denver has a slightly easier schedule than the Chargers do, but Denver has shown that they can beat anyone, but can also lose to anyone.

Now, as Week 11 is underway after that entertaining Thursday night game, the AFC West could be decided by Monday morning. A Broncos win and Chargers loss would put the Broncos two games up on San Diego. That could be too large a deficit to overcome over five games.

If both teams win or both teams lose, then everything will be the same as it is now, and if the Chargers win and the Broncos lose, the two would be tied for first place with the current edge going to Denver, as they own the head to head record this year (for the time being).

We will watch carefully on Sunday to see who really looks like the stronger team. As the Giants of 2007 proved, all that matters in the playoffs is getting in.

Some things to consider: Denver is 5-1 when tight end Tony Scheffler plays.

They are 5-0 when Jay Cutler's passer rating is above 90.0.

Cutler has only been sacked seven times all season.