Expect The Unexpected a NCAA Basketball Final Four Prediction

The 2008-2009 NCAA basketball season starts this month with teams hoping they’ll be playing in March, and possibly make the Final Four.

Everyone has a chance, as Davidson showed last season, by making it to the Elite 8 before being defeated by Kansas 59-57. Davidson, a small school in North Carolina, plays in the Southern Conference, and became a Cinderella story last season, with its deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas then continued its great season and became national champs after completing an unbelievable comeback, overcoming  a nine point deficit with only 2:12 remaining in the game.

This season, numerous teams believe that this could be their year. There are also many questions due to how wide open college basketball is, which will be decided in the coming months.

Can the Kansas Jayhawks repeat as National champs? Will there be any Cinderella stories come March? Who will make it to the Final Four? Finally, who will be able to call themselves champions of the 2008-2009 season?

College basketball is very difficult to predict, with the parity that has become normal in sports. This has been caused mostly by the smaller schools, such as Davidson possibly recruiting overseas, to make up for some of the talent they might lack compared to a major school, such as a North Carolina or Duke.

Players have also decided to go professional, which seems to have caused some team chemistry issues since the players haven’t played with each other for very long. In mid-major type schools, this normally doesn’t happen because they are normally players who just use the fundamentals or maybe just was a hidden-gem and will make fans think again as to why this player is playing for a mid-major school.

As there is every season, there will probably be a few early surprises because preseason rankings don’t mean anything, especially in NCAA Basketball, with a 65 team NCAA Tourney.

It doesn't matter if a team underachieves during the regular season, if they get hot at the right time, they can still be the last team standing.

My Final Four predictions start with the Louisville Cardinals, the no. 3 ranked team in preseason polls. Look for Louisville to take its game to the next level after North Carolina knocked Louisville out in the Elite 8 73-63 last season. The Cardinals will have a lot of depth on the bench and will return four starters from last season’s deep run.

The only question mark for the Cardinals will be if they can score enough points, because they will have to replace David Padgett, last season’s leading scorer at 11.2 points per game. Most importantly the Cardinals will lose his passing abilities. Padgett was like a quarterback out there.

While it will be tough to replace his consistent numbers, Louisville still has a lot of talent that should be able to fill in nicely for the Cardinals this season.

Louisville also plays in a very difficult conference: The Big East.

While that might cause U of L to lose a few more games during the regular season, it should set them up nicely for a long NCAA Tourney run, because it won’t be the first time the Cards played with the big dogs of college basketball. I think the versatility  and experience of Rick Pitino's squad will lead them to the next step, which will be a rematch with North Carolina with revenge on their minds.

My Second Team whom I think will make the Final Four is the North Carolina Tar Heels. The unanimous no. 1 team in preseason polls will be hoping to make it back to the Final Four, after a disappointing end to last season. North Carolina will return all five starters from last season, even National Player of the Year, Tyler Hansbrough.

With that much talent and experience coming back, they have one of the best chances of playing in Detroit with hopes of bringing the NCAA Tourney championship back to Chapel Hill for the fifth time. The most important thing for the Tar Heels will be health: if they don’t have any major injuries, they should be cutting down the nets on April 6th, 2009.

Four of the five players, who will be back for the Tar Heels, were projected to be drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft, which would have given those players a multi-year contract, while making at least around $1,000,000 per season. Those figures would be very difficult to pass up but they did, which I think will lead them back to the Final Four and a National Championship by defeating the Louisville Cardinals for the second straight season.

The third team, which I predict to be in the Final Four is the Purdue Boilermakers, which might be a little bit of a surprise since they are ranked no. 11 in the AP top 25. The Boilermakers play in the Big Ten conference, which it seems always steps up its games come NCAA Tourney time and plays good fundamental basketball, which is just important in college as anywhere else.

Purdue has a lot of talent coming back, with all five starters returning, and I think the team chemistry and last season’s success will lead to a final destination of Detroit, Michigan and a shot at winning their first NCAA championship since 1932.

Purdue is still a very young team with a projected starting five without a senior, but the talent level is there. With all five starters back with another year under their belt, I can’t help but think that their 76-year drought could possibly end.

The Boilermakers will return the Big Ten defensive player of the year, point guard Chris Kramer, who last year averaged over two steals per game. The Boilermakers will have to make up for a lack in size, as they did not address that issue by recruiting; however, offseason weight-lifting should do wonders for the talented Purdue Boilermakers. Early on, people will find out if Purdue can live up to the high expectations, as they will play Duke in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge on December 2nd.

My final team whom I think will make it to Detroit is the Connecticut Huskies who will hope to avenge last seasons surprising first round NCAA Tourney exit to the University of San Diego. The 70-69 loss the Huskies suffered last season to San Diego should motivate them to possibly reach their potential.

Connecticut will return four starters, including 7'3'', 263 pound junior Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet is the reigning national defensive player of the year and ranked third in the country in blocked shots last season. Thabeet should have an even better season this year, as he spent the offseason working on his low post game, so teams will have to fear both his offensive and defensive game.

The Huskies also will return Jeff Adrian, who almost averaged a double-double last season, with 14.8 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game. His versatility and hard nose style should set the tone for the Huskies this season.

A.J. Price will be another player who will be counted on heavily for the no. 2 team in the AP poll. Price will be coming off an offseason knee surgery, but he should be ready by the start of the season to help the Huskies live up to preseason expectations.

The Huskies have a lot of talent and play against some of the toughest teams in college basketball, in the Big East, but that should help prepare them for a long postseason run, which would put last season’s tournament disappointment to rest.