12 Sleepers and Busts: 2011 Fantasy Football

As the glory days of summer run out, schools begin to open up all over the country, and men and women slowly begin dreading waking up in the freezing cold again. Yet, there is always something to look forward to—fantasy football drafts.

With most drafts occurring over the next couple of weeks, players all over the country are dying to get that inside edge and upper-hand over their competitors. This advantage comes in the form of undervalued sleepers to draft, and big time busts to avoid. While fantasy football is not a science and thus impossible to predict, the following list should give owners some new knowledge to dwell on before they select Randy Moss in the first round and pass on Michael Vick like last year. 

Sleeper: RB Ricky Williams

Moving from South Beach to Baltimore may not seem like a good thing for Williams, but despite the weather changes Williams is in line for some solid fantasy production. While Ray Rice is the premier back and will get most of the carries, the Ravens just do not trust him around the goal line and like working in other running backs.

Willis McGahee had 17 touchdowns in the past two years on 209 touches for the Ravens, and the team figures to use his replacement in a similar manner. Sorry Ray Rice owners, but Williams is going to uphold the tradition of touchdown "vulture" in Baltimore.

BUST: WR Hines Ward

Great smile, great dancer, not a great fantasy receiver. Last season Ward caught the lowest amount of balls in almost 10 years despite suiting up in all 16 contests. He also recorded his second lowest TD total in that same stretch. At age 35, Ward is on his last legs as a go-to receiver in the NFL. With the emergence of Mike Wallace and a solid running game, Ward is a big time risk to trust with a mid-round pick. Let someone else grab him and take a younger player with more upside. 

SLEEPER: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Last year, Fitzpatrick jumped onto the fantasy scene with 3000 yards passing and 23 touchdowns in only 13 games. This year, he is flying under the radar in most fantasy drafts. Yes, he lacks many of the weapons that other quarterbacks possess, but Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are serviceable enough to allow Fitzpatrick to compile similar stats as last year. Only this year, he will get to start the entire season.

BUST: WR Dez Bryant

Bryant only played 12 games last season, and his stats were nothing special when he was on the field. He's a special talent and will certainly be among the best WRs in a few seasons, just not this one. Bryant had limited work with QB Tony Romo last season, and with the lockout he has had even less time to get his timing down with the pro bowl quarterback. With Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and an apparent emphasis on getting Felix Jones the ball, Bryant is going to have a hard time putting up big numbers in Dallas.

SLEEPER: WR Johnny Knox

This 24-year-old is entering the fantasy glory land of "third year receiver", the season in which many believe receivers become fully comfortable in their abilities and their systems. Knox possesses good speed and hands, and is Jay Cutlers most reliable target this season. Let other owners draft newly acquired Roy Williams, grab Knox and watch all the balls go his way.

BUST: RB Mark Ingram

Yes, Reggie Bush is gone. This must be Ingram time now, right? Nope. The Saints still have Pierre Thomas on the roster, and plan on giving him his fair share of carries. What also doesn't help Ingram is the signing of Darren Sproles to fulfill Reggie Bush's role on third down. There just doesn't seem to be enough carries going Ingram's way this year in the high-flying Saints offense, and makes him a likely bust in his rookie season. 

SLEEPER: RB Mike Tolbert

Apparently 11 touchdowns and four yards a carry is no longer a good fantasy line, because Tolbert is getting no love on draft day. Stepping in when Ryan Matthews couldn't get the job done, Tolbert entered the fantasy realm and immediately paid dividends last season. While Matthews is still around and likely to be better than last year, Tolbert is the Charger back you want on your team. The departure of Darren Sproles only helps his value more.

BUST: TE Owen Daniels

Daniels is averaging less than 10 games the past two seasons, and could very well still be dealing with his past injuries. Not only that, but Daniels was never a big touchdown tight end and only eclipsed 60 catches twice in his whole career. With all the other weapons on the Texans offense, Daniels is going to struggle to post numbers similar to what fantasy owners expect with the price they have to pay to get him. Let someone else grab him, and pick a safer option later in the draft. 

SLEEPER: WR Mike Thomas

Everyone remembers the game-ending hail-mary catch that Thomas pulled in against the Texans in Week 9. What many don't remember? That Thomas was quietly putting together a nice receiving season and is now on the brink of becoming a solid fantasy receiver. This will be his third season in the league, and with the departure of Mike Sims-Walker, Thomas is in a great position to see an increase in targets, catches, and touchdowns. The only downside? The risk that a rookie quarterback will win the starting job. I will take that risk in later rounds. 

BUST: QB Matt Ryan

Ryan’s draft position just doesn’t match up with his production potential. Yes, Ryan is a great NFL quarterback, and should keep the Falcons in every single game this season. But that doesn’t always mean fantasy production. Last year Ryan only eclipsed 300 yards in one game. Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez, and Eli Manning all had more, and can be taken later in drafts for a much lower price.

SLEEPER: WR Percy Harvin

Yes, Harvin has historically been a "headache" for fantasy owners (see what I did there?), but this season should be different. Harvin has come out and said the long offseason has helped him deal with his migraines and other health issues. Also in Harvin's favor is the fact that Sidney Rice has left town. Don't underestimate Donovan McNabb's influence on Harvin either, the two could surprise many people with their chemistry. 

BUST: RB Darren McFadden

If McFadden stays healthy, he will not be a bust. But his health is not something that any fantasy owner can say with certainty he will maintain. Whats worse? McFadden is very streaky and can kill a fantasy week for any owner. Last year he rushed for less than 40 yards in four of his 13 games, or roughly 30 percent of the time. Yes, when he goes off, there are very few players in the league who can produce numbers like he can. But with his injury history (never more than 13 games played in career) and a solid backup in Michael Bush, don't waste a first round pick on him. 

SLEEPER: TE Dallas Clark

Similar situation as Owen Daniels, but much higher upside for Clark. For one thing, Clark is not an injury prone player. Clark played 15, 15, and 16 games the three seasons before last year's injury. Not only that, but this guy is a legit stud at the tight end position. Lets not forget his 100 catches and 10 touchdowns in 2009. Peyton Manning loves Clark as his safety blanked, and he is in line for a huge bounce back year. Let your competitors draft Antonio Gates and Jermichael Finley ahead of him, this guy is a steal.

BUST: WR Jordy Nelson

A Super Bowl hero for Packer fans, Nelson is being drafted in the middle rounds of many drafts in hopes that he will perform all season like he did in the Super Bowl with nine catches for 140 yards and a touchdown.

Well, it is very unlikely he can reach these levels throughout a whole season. With Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, and the return of Ryan Grant there just isn't enough balls to give to everyone. Nelson is fine as a late round sleeper in hopes an injury puts him on the field more, but don't reach for a No. 3 receiver on his own team. 

SLEEPER: RB Daniel Thomas

Trust me, Reggie Bush is not going to be the premiere back. Thomas, however, is going to get a boat load of carries and should produce solid numbers as a rookie. In his two years in college, he ran for over 1500 yards both years and scored 19 rushing touchdowns last season. With inconsistent quarterback play, the Dolphins are going to focus on getting this bruiser the ball.

BUST: WR Steve Smith

Coming over from the rival Giants, Smith joins Michael Vick and a group of receivers that love the big play. That was never Smith's game, as he was always the ideal slot receiver for the Giants while other targets would go for the home run. It doesn't help that he joins a very deep receiving group with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant. Am I forgetting something? Oh yeah, his offseason knee surgery that could lead him to miss as many as six regular season games. Avoid drafting him but track him when he returns to see if the Eagles can fit him into their offense. 

SLEEPER: TE Greg Olsen

Coming over from the Bears, Olsen is in line to see an increase in all his fantasy statistics. One reason, of course, is the change of scenery. Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz was never a fan of using the tight end as a strong pass catcher, as evidenced by Olsen's 40 catches all of last year. The Panthers are sure to use this big target more often this year. Another big reason to love Olsen? Rookie quarterback Cam Newton is going to be looking for a safe and reliable target this year, and Olsen fits the bill. 

BUST: WR Anquan Boldin

Last years big offseason acquisition started the season hot, looking like the man who used to dominate the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately, Boldin dropped off significantly towards the end of the season, with only one touchdown in the season's final seven games. With Joe Flacco's safety blanket Derrick Mason gone, Boldin will certainly get more looks. But with that comes more coverage for the 30-year-old receiver past his prime. 

SLEEPER: QB Eli Manning

He led the league in interceptions last season, and yet I want to grab him in everyone of my fantasy drafts. Why? Because he is a bargain on draft day. Manning is coming off back to back 4000 yard seasons with 27 touchdowns in 2009 and 31 last season. Those are big time numbers for a quarterback who is being drafted a couple of rounds after Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. Those two? One 4000 yard season between the two of them. I will keep drafting other positions and pick up Manning in the middle rounds in hopes he can cut down on the turnovers. 

BUST: RB Peyton Hillis

Is someone really a "bust" if everyone thinks they will be? Hillis's draft value is sure trying to answer this philosophical debate. Hillis was one of the best running backs last season, but famously died down towards the end of the season. Hillis only achieved one touchdown and one game over 60 yards in the last five games of last season, showing some of the wear-and-tear of carrying the load for the Browns. With the improvement of Colt McCoy and the passing game, as well as a change in coach, Hillis is almost a lock to not repeat last seasons magic. Draft him if he drops, but do not reach too early. 

SLEEPER: Texans Defense

Before you jump out of your chair, I am aware how bad the Texans were last year on defense. They were dead last in defending the pass, and routinely got into shootouts with other teams. But, this is not the same defense as last year. Mario Williams has dropped back to linebacker, Brian Cushing gets a full season of work, Demeco Ryans is healthy, and the team added defensive end JJ Watt and cornerback Johnathan Joseph in the offseason. This defense will produce, and gets to play both the Jaguars and Titans twice this season. They are a good late round pick. 

BUST: WR Dwayne Bowe

Coming off a career year, Bowe is currently being drafted as a top 10 WR. It might be a little premature to consider Bowe a safe call as a No. 1 receiver. His four seasons in the league have been inconsistent at best, and before last seasons explosion he was one of the most dangerous receivers to rely on in fantasy. 15 touchdowns again? No chance. With more emphasis on getting Jamal Charles the ball, and Steve Breaston joining the team, Bowe is going to take a step back this season. 

SLEEPER: TE Brandon Pettigrew

Standing 6' 5'' and weighing 265, Pettigrew is an absolute beast. Coming off a season where he caught 71 balls, third among tight ends, Pettigrew is in line for an increase in both targets and touchdowns. The best part about Pettigrew? He is currently being taken in the late rounds of most drafts after the likes of Owen Daniels, Kellen Winslow, and Tony Gonzalez. Who's to say Pettigrew can't be better than all of these guys? 

BUST: WR Plaxico Burress

People do realize this guy was in jail for the past 21 months, right? Going to a team that loves to run the ball, with an inconsistent quarterback, and an established go to receiver in Santonio Holmes also doesn't help Burress's fantasy value. At his prime Burress was one of the best pass-catchers in the game, but that prime is gone. Don't reach for him on draft day, you'll just be shooting your fantasy hopes in the leg.