NFL Picks: Week 11

I'd bet my money that tonight's game between the Jets and Patriots determines the winner of that division. If New England won in New York, it's logical to assume that they will be able to win at home, but the Jets have improved.

Normally, by this point in the season, I have figured teams out and my analyses allowed me to win the ranking pools I used to take part in. In 2003, I came in to Week Seven 1-6 in a six-man pool and went 5-5-1 over the final 10 weeks and the playoff pool to take our pool season's title.

But the last two years, I have been unable to figure things out. Two years ago, I was bested by someone who, in the process of rubbing in his success, made one point I did not want to accept: Picking is as much luck as anything; I have never been lucky. That is the one negative consequence of parity, and I'll take it over baseball any day.

However, this season, I am 11-3 in each of my last two weeks, raising my season record to 95-57 (.660). Assigning each ranking one point (I get one point for the winning team I was least sure was going to win and 14-16, depending on the number of games that week, to the team I was most sure was going to win), I have 752 out of a possible 1120 points (.671). Maybe I'm getting the old magic back.

Here are all my picks for this week... Remember, the rankings are only win/loss, with no consideration for the spread.

1. Offensively Named Ones over Cowboys: Clinton Portis hurting is probably worse than Tony Romo rusty.
2. Forty-Niners over Rams: I finally am back to accepting that the Rams are that bad, but the Forty-Niners find ways to lose and cannot be trusted.
3. Packers over Bears: Even if Orton plays he will be less than 100 percent, and the Packers passing game will feast on Bear meat; on the other hand, the Bears might run for 200 yards.
4. Bills over Browns: On paper, the Browns have more talent, but they are in disarray; so far this year, the Bills are WAY better, but they are trending down.
5. Steelers over Chargers: Pittsburgh has injury problems, and the Chargers run hot and cold, making this game unpredictable.
6. Patriots over Jets: Both teams are pretty banged up coming in (not Packers or Seahawks level banged up, but by other standards...), so that makes this one hard to predict, too.
7. Titans over Jaguars: I just can't put much on the Titans until they get that first loss they're due for.
8. Giants over Ravens: This Ravens team might make the playoffs.
9. Buccaneers over Vikings: Tampa Bay can stop the run, and that's all Minnesota has.
10. Cardinals over Seahawks: Arizona has no defense, and the Seahawks know how to win division games, but I have a hard time seeing that offense flounder enough for Seattle to keep up.
11. Falcons over Broncos: Atlanta is better at running, stopping the run, and stopping the pass; Denver at passing...that's no contest.
12. Dolphins at Raiders: What looked like an easy win for Oakland before the season began now looks like a cinch for the 'Phins.
13. Saints over Chiefs: If New Orleans can't win this one, they might as well start planning for the draft.
14. Colts over Texans: Indianapolis seems to be getting healthy and therefore on track, and if that's true Houston is no match.
15. Eagles over Bengals: Cincinnati is the tonic for what ails the Eagles.
16. Panthers over Lions: I am not the biggest believer in Carolina yet, but c'mon...