Fantasy Football: Week 11 Preview, Part One

I'm telling you, Thursday Night Football is one of the greatest things. It helps ease you out of the week and into weekend mode. I'd still like a Saturday game as well, but we can't always get everything that we want.

Even though it would make complete sense. With the game tonight taking place five miles from my place of residence, rest assured that I will know what's going on without even having to watch the game. It gets that loud...I hate the Patriots.

Let's get to it.

New York Jets at New England

Who to Start: Matt Cassel, Wes Welker, Brett Favre, Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington

Who to Sit: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dustin Keller

What to Expect: I'll admit to reading the Boston Globe every day. One of the pieces they do in the sports section each week is on how the Pats will do when they pass or run and who is in better position when the opponent passes or run.

Today, they had the Jets in better position in three out of those four categories. I agree with that. The Jets are one of the top teams in football when it comes to stopping the run. Green-Ellis is coming off a great game, but is on a short week and will be facing a defensive line that seems to plug holes. I'd keep him reserved this week if you have better options available.

In most cases, you should. Starting running backs against teams that give up only 75 yards a game is not the best of ideas.

Cassel will be asked to beat the Jets through the air. While Moss will draw Revis at corner, the weak link will be in the underneath coverage on Welker. Look for him to break 80 yards and a score this week. Cassel should be good for two touchdowns through the air and 190 yards. This is where they'll need to live to beat the Jets.

On the New York side, you beat the Patriots by going deep. Against a young secondary, I'd expect to see the Jets use a fair amount of three-receiver sets. The Pats give up about 1.5 passing touchdowns a game, so I like Favre to be good for two. One to Cotchery and one to Coles. In deeper formats, Chansi Stuckey could come in to play as well.

The Colts effectively used a lot of pick plays to create openings. Stuckey could be used to do the same.

New England hasn't given up many rushing touchdowns this season, but Thomas Jones should be able to crack them for one. Look for him to break 110 yards with that score. I still like how dynamic Leon Washington is. In deeper leagues, he's still going to be a flex option for me because of the ways he can get yards.

Sleeper Pickup: Washington. For the reasons stated above and the fact he could always break one in the return game.

Denver at Atlanta

Who to Start: Jerious Norwood (deep leagues), Matt Ryan, Eddie Royal, Peyton Hillis
 
Who to Sit: Tatum Bell, Daniel Graham
 
What to Expect: Every bit of research you can do talks about how soft the AFC West run defenses are. We're going to see that theory tested again.

Michael Turner has just gone off against bad defenses, and this is going to be one of them. With the play calling still 50 percent geared toward the run, getting 20 touches against this defense should net Turner 120 yards and two scores. He's one of my favorite running back plays this week.

In deep leagues, look to use Norwood as well. As we've discussed, poor defenses seem to yield points and touches to everyone. I like Norwood to find the end zone as well here, to go with 60 yards.

Matt Ryan has been solid all season, and he'll still be facing a secondary that is more depleted than not. I think the Falcons are going to put up points this week and Ryan will account for two touchdowns of his own to go with 230 yards. Yes, you need to start Roddy White.

Denver isn't going to win this game, playing conservatively and relying on their defense to bail them out. Without a running game, Jay Cutler is going to have to sit back and throw the ball. He'll have a day, putting up 325 yards and three scores in this one. I like Marshall and Royal to account for all of the action there.

Tony Scheffler will grab some yards, but be held out of the end zone in this one. Still a good start, especially after the way he came off the injury last week.

Peyton Hillis is the most healthy back. Tatum Bell could jump in and grab some carries, but not enough to make him the better play. If you really need to use a Denver running back, I'd go with the rookie. I'd also try to avoid it all together.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hillis. When you're the only healthy back, well, you're the only healthy back.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati

Who to Start: All your Eagles. All of them.

Who to Sit: All your Bengals.
 
What to Expect: I'm not going to beat around the bush here. I don't like Cincinnati in this one. Not one bit.

I wouldn't play any of them. Whether you have T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Cedric Benson, I think we can all likely agree that there are better options available to all owners at this point. The Bengals haven't been able to put anything together on offense that would give you any type of hope right now.

Yes, the Eagles give up about 100 yards rushing a game, but they have only given up four rushing touchdowns. I don't think Benson finds the end zone, and asking for more than 70 yards is probably a lot for this one.

Philly is also sixth against the pass, giving up under 200 yards a game and just over one touchdown through the air. I'll take those odds and start the defense against Cincinnati in this one.

On the Philly side, I'd get all your regulars into the lineup. In reality, there isn't a bad matchup here. McNabb should be a top-five play this week. Yes, Cincinnati is in the top-10 in pass defense, but they have been slowly dropping every week. They give up nearly 200 yards on average and 1.5 touchdowns a game. I'd expect 240 and 2 out of McNabb pretty easily.

The matchups for Curtis, Jackson, and Brown are solid enough that all should be started. In deeper formats, I still like the big play ability that Hank Baskett provides. He's not much in PPR formats, but could provide a boost if you're in a pinch.

Brian Westbrook is going to have a field day. That's about all there is to it there. By the way, yes this means Philly will lose.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hank Baskett. It's a deep league reach, but you're going to start all your other Eagles at this point.

Chicago at Green Bay

Who to Start: Greg Olsen, Donald Lee, Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson (deep league-gut play)
 
Who to Sit: Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, Rex Grossman, Rashied Davis
 
What to Expect: The Packers have had a major problem stopping the run of late, and Matt Forte is not going to be the cure for what ails them.

The Packers are sitting at 28th against the run, giving up over 150 yards per game. I like Forte to go off in this one for 125 and two scores. That seems to be standard protocol against Green Bay this season. Considering he's also the leading receiver, he could add 35 yards out of the backfield there as well.

It likely doesn't matter who is under center for the Bears this week, as the Packers are as tough against the pass as they are soft against the run. On the road, I don't like Grossman at all, and I would do my best to reserve any and all players who might be relying on him to get them the ball. 

The exception here is Olsen, who will be used as an outlet receiver. He could be in line for the biggest day of any in the Chicago passing attack. Not saying much, but it's something.

For the Packers, they will need to attack the Bears through the air. Tennessee had a fair amount of success doing that last week, and that should be how most teams approach the Bears. Don't look for a big day out of Ryan Grant. Chicago held a better team down last weekend. 60 yards and a score for Grant. That doesn't make him a top play in my book.

Rodgers should be able to find Jennings and Driver with consistency. I like them both to rack up yards, with Jennings finding the end zone. I have a gut feeling on Jordy Nelson this week, and he should find the end zone with Rodgers' other touchdown pass. Lee should be fine in the passing game for a tight end.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Olsen. It ain't much, but he's all Grossman will have.

Houston at Indianapolis

Who to Start: Steve Slaton, Ahman Green, Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison
 
Who to Sit: Sage Rosenfels
 
What to Expect: We've seen teams try to pick on Indy through the air, but they haven't had much success.

You can certainly run on them, though. The Texans should look to take advantage of the 135 yards per game that Indy gives up on the ground. While this will get better as they bring Bob Sanders up in run support, that makes their pass defense more susceptible to being beaten.

Steve Slaton should be good for 90 yards and a score, with Ahman Green adding 60 yards of his own with a score.

I like Rosenfels to throw for a touchdown to Johnson, but that's where I would draw the line. Indy is very good at defending the pass, and hasn't had any problems with more talented receivers. Kevin Walter should remain reserved. Owen Daniels is a fine tight end start.

On the Indy side, look for them to attack a secondary that teams are enjoying playing against. I'd start all your Colts receivers. With the story this week about Marvin Harrison being ineffective, I would expect Peyton Manning to prove that the receiver still has the legs to do the job. 70 yards and a touchdown for Harrison makes sense.

I like Wayne to keep up his steady play, and Manning should find Clark in the end zone as well. As far as PPR leagues, use Gonzalez as a flex option for this game.

I'm not too high on Addai and Rhodes, but Addai is the better play again. He likely cracks 60 yards with a score, but this will be the Manning Air Show.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Gonzalez. He's available in more leagues than he should be, and this will be the type of matchup he does well in.

New Orleans at Kansas City

Who to Start: Deuce McAllister, Tyler Thigpen, Mark Bradley, Lance Moore
 
Who to Sit: Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson
 
What to Expect: Expect the Saints to learn that it will be harder to win in Arrowhead than they think.

Drew Brees didn't have the same level of talent in San Diego that he does now, but he hasn't had much success as a starter at Kansas City. The Chiefs have been on the verge for a couple weeks, and this could be the type of matchup they pull out.

For the Saints, Reggie Bush has returned to practice, but in a limited fashion. I'm going to recommend staying away from him this week and sticking with McAllister. The Chiefs don't do well against the run, and McAllister has been able to have a couple decent games in Bush's absence. Keep him active as a flex option or RB3 play and you won't be disappointed with 80 yards and a score.

Colston has missed a little practice time as well, but there are no indications he won't be good to go for this one. He and Moore are getting the most work, and are both fine starts against the Chiefs in this one. Moore might see his touches suffer as Bush comes back, but I think we'll be ok here for one more week.

Tyler Thigpen needs to be started in this one. The Saints are soft enough against the pass that he should be able to hit 220 yards with three touchdowns in some combination. I like him to find Bradley for a few catches as well, and in PPR formats I like Bradley as a deep-league flex starter. Bowe should be in the lineup as should Gonzalez.

Larry Johnson likely returns for the Chiefs this week. That doesn't mean you should start him, but it does mean that you shouldn't start Jamaal Charles. Keep him down and out. I don't like the Chiefs to use much of the running game that isn't Thigpen.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Thigpen and Bradley. I'm going to keep saying it until they stop performing.

Oakland at Miami

Who to Start: Chad Pennington, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Zach Miller
 
Who to Sit: Anyone playing quarterback for Oakland, Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas
 
What to Expect: What more can we say about the Raiders here. Miami is playing better, and they are seemingly getting worse. To the point that the owner told the offensive coordinator that he can't call the plays anymore. Good times in Oakland.

Brown and Williams continue to carry the load, and are getting one of the worst run defenses in football at home this week. Given what DeAngelo Williams did last week, seeing these two combine for 160 yards isn't out of the question. I like Brown to get the bulk of the work and find the end zone, but Williams won't be kept out either. Both are RB3/flex plays in any format.

Chad Pennington is getting more comfortable with the Miami offense, and that has meant more targets for both Ginn and Camarillo. In leagues that count return yards, Ginn should be a third option, but could be an upside-WR2 play. Camarillo's value is largely in PPR leagues, as he sees more balls thrown his way than any other Dolphins receiver.

Pennington should hit 250 yards with a touchdown in this one. Two wouldn't be a stretch.

I just like nothing about Oakland right now that isn't Janikowski. Whether it is Russell or Walter, they haven't done enough through the air to merit any attention. Justin Fargas was fine last week, but you can do better than what he'll give you. McFadden has been too hurt to make a difference for anyone not in a keeper format. Stay away.

Sleeper Pickup: Ginn. Gotta love the upside for this one. He's getting the chance and making the most of it.

Baltimore at New York Giants

Who to Start: Willis McGahee, Kevin Boss
 
Who to Sit: Joe Flacco, Derrick Mason, Eli Manning
 
What to Expect: Don't expect Manning to break his run of sub-200 yard games.

He hasn't done it against poor defenses, he isn't going to do it against a good one. Last week, many experts felt that Rosenfels would torch the Ravens secondary. Didn't happen. They picked him off four times. They could get three more this week just because of how poorly Manning can throw the football. Keep him reserved.

I wouldn't start anyone in the Giants passing game outside of Boss and Burress. Boss is getting a lot of attention, and led the team in catches and yards last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again here.

You start Brandon Jacobs, but this isn't the best matchup for the running back. The Ravens are physical and stop the run very, very well.

For the Ravens, it's going to be harder to get the offense going. Flacco is facing a very different secondary than what was there last week. Look for his totals to stay under 200 yards with a touchdown. That's the best I can see against such a tough pass defense. The rookie is getting confidence, but let's not get carried away just yet.

Willis McGahee returned to take most of the carries last week. We haven't heard anything otherwise, so we'll go with him as the best option this week. The Ravens will need to beat the Giants on the ground, so look for them to pound away with McGahee and McClain.

In deeper formats, McClain isn't the best play, but you could do worse if you're in need of a back.

With bye weeks over, that's not as likely.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Boss. He's getting the attention, but not the love from fantasy owners. Grab him and start him.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Who to Start: Antonio Bryant, Jeff Garcia, Bernard Berrian
 
Who to Sit: Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn, Chester Taylor
 
What to Expect: An interesting matchup, this one is.

The Vikings are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass. I'd avoid using Tampa running backs in this one. Not many have done well, and the big games are few and far between. Graham could hit 50 yards with a score, but that wouldn't make me excited to start him, and a score is a reach in this matchup. If he isn't effective, Dunn will not be either.

I do like Jeff Garcia's matchup against a beatable Minnesota secondary. Antonio Bryant is in for a better day than many may think as a result. Look for Garcia to hit 260 yards with two touchdown passes, one of which goes to Bryant. Bryant should grab 80 yards to go with his score, and make a borderline WR2 start.

For Minnesota, this begins and ends with Adrian Peterson. You start him under every circumstance imaginable. Nothing tells you to bench him.

In the passing game, Tampa is tough, but Frerotte has been good enough. I wouldn't start him unless absolutely necessary, but he should make the day good enough for Shiancoe and Berrian to make them worth starting. Frerotte should hit for the two touchdowns, but his yards and mistakes make him a tough play otherwise.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Sidney Rice. He's been targeted for scores two weeks in a row. Makes him worth a look, especially if he provides good numbers this week. Shiancoe is a guy to grab this week for those looking for a tight end play.