2011 NFL Schedule: 6 Games That Will Determine If Texans Finally Break Through

The Houston Texans are thinking playoffs. Again.

Looking at their schedule, the task is not easy.

They have games against the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Not to mention their two annual games against division nemesis Indianapolis Colts.

However, there are some key games on the schedule that will determine if the Texans have finally broken through.

Week 3: @ New Orleans Saints

The Texans will be getting a tough game early in the season to test their revamped defense under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

They will be facing Drew Brees and one of the top passing offenses in the NFL. The Saints’ passing game was third in the NFL last year with 277.6 YPG.

While yes, the Indianapolis Colts will be coming to Houston in Week 1, the Saints game is a better test of the secondary.

Mainly because this was a shortened offseason and the team is learning a new 3-4 scheme with some new faces. This game will show us the true progress of the secondary after giving them some extra time to truly learn and mesh as a defensive unit.

It is no secret that Houston’s pass defense was terrible last year.

This game is a good litmus test to see the progress of the secondary.

Week 5: Oakland Raiders

This is a game Houston needs to win. This is a very tough Oakland squad, but they are not amongst the elite. If Houston wants to make the step forward to being a playoff team, these are the teams that they need to beat, especially at home.

They were able to beat this squad last year on the road and showed off what was a solid run defense, containing a Raiders squad that was ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards last year.

That is one question I have about Houston's new look defense. With this new defensive scheme and with so much focus on the pass defense, will Houston lose anything when defending the run?

This looks to be a good game to answer that question.

Week 6: @ Baltimore Ravens

This is going to be a tough road challenge for the Texans.

They will be facing an offense that features RB Ray Rice and newly acquired RB Ricky Williams. WR Anquan Boldin goes into his second season with QB Joe Flacco, and expectations for the two are higher than ever.

Oh, and their defense is still very staunch.

They do have a weak secondary (ranking 21st in the NFL last year in passing YPG), and QB Matt Shaub could exploit that.

However, Baltimore was 7-1 at home last year. So a win in Baltimore is no easy task.

A win in Baltimore will go a long ways in changing the losing culture that surrounds Houston year in and year out.

A loss will not be a doom to the season, but it could leave Houston fans wondering if this team can beat a quality opponent on the road, especially if the team loses in New Orleans later in the season.

All Games Against Tennessee Titans or Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston must have success against the weaker two teams in their division. They must do better than break even against these teams.

In 2009, the Texans' 9-7 season, they were 1-5 against the division. They would have easily been in the playoffs with one or two more division wins.

They must win at least three of these four games against these two teams. If Houston is unable to beat the Colts once, then they will need to win all four.

The Kansas City Chiefs at 2-4 were the only playoff team last year with a losing record in their division. All the other teams had at least four division wins.

The Texans have a very difficult non-division schedule. They play the Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, Saints and Falcons. So it is absolutely important to get these wins within the division.

The Titans are the last game on the Texans schedule. That very well could be the game that decides the postseason fate of Houston, especially if Houston loses in Week 16 in Indianapolis.

Week 13: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were very good in the regular season last year with a 13-3 record, and they are looking to prove something after a first-round exit in the postseason to the Green Bay Packers.

At this point in the season, Houston will probably be in the midst of an AFC South division race with the Indianapolis Colts and possibly either the Jacksonville Jaguars or Tennessee Titans.

The Falcons will probably be in a race with the New Orleans Saints and/or Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. There is no doubt this game will have major implications for the NFC and AFC playoff pictures.

The games following Atlanta are against the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals. Those are two games that Houston should win but are dangerous games.

Having a win versus Atlanta would be a tremendous boost of confidence and give Houston a lot of momentum going into games against, arguably, lesser opponents.

A loss at home will put a lot of pressure on Houston and make those following games very close to “must-win” games.

Week 16: @ Indianapolis Colts

This could be the deciding game in the AFC South.

It is a Thursday night game, so that gives Houston the edge against a veteran Colts team.

Houston has a very young defense that will rely on getting to the QB and tough man coverage in the secondary.

Indianapolis will need every bit of energy against Houston to win. Playing at home should help the Colts a tremendous amount.

With a short week, Houston will need to show their youth and outplay and outhustle the Colts to win.

However, any team that has Peyton Manning at QB will be a very tough opponent.

Houston is looking for a breakout season, and beating Indianapolis on the road would be a franchise first.

It could also mean the franchise’s first playoff berth.