NFL's Week 11 Pick'em: Who Reigns Atop the AFC East?

By Derek Lofland

After a mild 9-5 week, my 2008 record stands at 94-50, good for a .653 percent clip.

Week 11 of the NFL brings some exciting matchups, starting with the Thursday night game between the Patriots and Jets that will determine the AFC East division leader.

The Baltimore at Giants game will also be another must watch, along with the NFC East showdown that features Tony Romo and the Cowboys going up against a fierce Redskins defense, and offense, for important playoff positioning.

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3): This game is going to be very simple. In the first matchup the Jets made too many mistakes. Brett Favre threw an interception, Jay Feeley missed an easy field goal, Thomas Jones was held to 70 yards and no touchdowns, and the defense gave up 32 carries for 104 yards and one touchdown, as the Patriots dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

There were no turnovers and the Patriots won the game.

If the Jets cannot stop the run and cannot establish Thomas Jones, they are going to have the same problems they did in Week Two. If they can’t force Matt Cassel to make mistakes, they will lose. I think the Jets have started to develop a lot of chemistry the last two weeks and are ready to take this step.

I expect a very physical close ball game in New England and I expect the Jets to win this game behind a grind it out game with Jones and more game management by Favre. Winner: New York Jets

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3):  I could go either way with this game. Vikings tough run defense makes Jeff Garcia beat them and he plays poorly. Tampa Bay’s defense forces more interceptions from Gus Frerotte and the Vikings lose.

Each side has matchups in its favor that will allow it to win the game. What I like out of Tampa Bay is that Minnesota is coming off an emotional win over its biggest rival and Tampa Bay is coming off a bye where they have rested their players. 

Tampa Bay is also playing at home. I’ve seen this before. Vikings beat the Packers in a home game and lay an egg the next week. Having grown up in Wisconsin, lived in Minnesota, and knowing the history of this rivalry, I have seen this too many times before over the last 20 years. I think the Vikings come out flat and lose to a good Tampa Bay team that is also very rested.  Winner: Tampa Bay

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1): Not many people would have thought this was going to be a big game at the beginning of the season, but the Ravens have put together a nice four-game winning streak and are playing some great ball. The Giants are just too tough to pick against right now. 

This isn’t a great matchup for Brandon Jacobs, but the Giants have shown they can win a smash-mouth game against Pittsburgh or a shoot out against Philly. While Flacco has played very well, I don’t think he’s ready to win a game this big.  I expect him to get sacked and have some turnovers and for the Ravens to struggle running the ball.  Giants win in a low scoring defensive struggle.  Winner: New York Giants

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3): You have to wonder if the Steelers would be better off sitting Big Ben and getting him healthy. He is the 25th rated quarterback in the NFL with a 76.1 QB rating and has more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10).  This isn’t a case where he needs to be benched for poor play, I just don’t think he is healthy enough to dominate right now and might be better served to rest up for a couple weeks and get healthy. 

The Steelers still have games against New England, Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennessee.  They can’t afford to not have him healthy later in the season.  Regardless, San Diego can’t stop anyone and plays horrible when traveling east. I like the Steelers.  Winner: Pittsburgh

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington (6-3): Tony Romo should be back for this game and the Cowboys need him. Washington has played very well to start the season and Dallas doesn’t have the defense to rough them up on offense like Pittsburgh did. The one question is whether Shaun Alexander can help carry the load for this offense if Portis is unable to go this week. 

I think Dallas’s offense gets back on track in this game, although they aren’t going to put up a ton of points on a solid Redskins defense.  I’m just not sure if the Redskins can move the ball without Portis. 

He is the heart and soul of the offense and there is no question that he won’t be at full strength. Portis had 21 carries for 121 yards in their first game against Dallas. They need him to do that again to win.  Winner: Dallas

And the rest…