Fantasy Football 2011: Steve Johnson and the Buffalo Bills' Top Fantasy Players

For much of the past decade a good general rule for fantasy football players has been to avoid any and all Buffalo Bills. Of course there has been the odd productive Bill over the years, but for the most part an anti-Bill drafting strategy has proven to be a good one.

Although nobody would consider the Bills to be a powerhouse in terms of fantasy production this season, you might want to think twice before avoiding Bills like the plague. While no Bill is likely to go in the opening rounds, there are plenty of draftable players on the roster and even, perhaps, a couple fantasy starters.

It is often said that fantasy football championships are won in the middle and later rounds of the draft. With that in mind, it stands to reason that Bills like Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson and even Ryan Fitzpatrick could have a huge impact on your fantasy team and league as a whole.

While very few fantasy owners will willingly choose to select a Bill, you just may be rewarded if one falls into your lap. Here are Buffalo Bills’ top players this season in terms of fantasy impact.

8. Bills’ Tight Ends

Here’s a fantasy tip for you: If you plan on drafting a Bills tight end, pull out of your draft and save yourself money, time and embarrassment. There really isn’t even a reason to mention Bills tight ends on the list besides the fact that tight end is an increasingly vital fantasy position. Tight ends have been integrated into NFL offenses more and more over the past decade, but the Bills apparently haven’t gotten the memo.

The Bills haven’t settled on a starter at the position as of now, but it looks to be a three-way battle in futility between Shawn Nelson, Scott Chandler and David Martin. Nelson clearly has the most upside of that motley crew, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy nor has he integrated well into the NFL. Chandler could very well be leading the charge at the moment, but he has just one catch over his three-year career.

If Martin were to be awarded the starting job it would be strictly based upon his blocking skills and he would hold no fantasy value either. Since 2003 a Bills tight end has caught as many as 33 passes just once (Robert Royal) and no Bills tight end has caught as many as 50 passes since 2001 (Jay Riemersma). While both Nelson and Chandler have some potential, recent history suggests that their role in Buffalo’s offense will be minimal at best.

7. Bills’ Defense/Special Teams

The Bills have undoubtedly had one of the worst defenses in football over the past few seasons, but it seems as though steps are finally being taken to change that. Pro Bowlers like defensive lineman Kyle Williams and safety Jairus Byrd will be joined this season by defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, the third overall pick in April’s draft, and linebacker Shawne Merriman, a former sack master with the San Diego Chargers.

The Bills also added a former Pro Bowl linebacker in Nick Barnett although they lost linebacker Paul Posluszny to free agency as well. The Bills have been decent against the pass over the last couple seasons, but much of that has had to do with their porous run defense. With more strength up the middle in the form of Dareus and Barnett, Buffalo’s defense should be able to improve in that area.

A tough schedule means that expectations should be tempered for the Bills’ defense, though. The more intriguing part of the combo package is Buffalo’s special teams. As awful as the Bills have been over the past decade, their special teams have routinely been among the league’s best.

With Brad Smith, C.J. Spiller, Roscoe Parrish and Leodis McKelvin on the roster, Buffalo has no shortage of weapons for returns. The potential for three or four return touchdowns this season makes the Buffalo defense/special teams a good candidate for owners who like to play the weekly matchups with their defenses.

6. K Rian Lindell

Although kicker is widely considered to be the most useless position in all of fantasy football and kickers should never be taken prior to the final round, there are times when kickers can decide the outcome of a fantasy matchup. The difference between the league’s top kicker and league’s 20th kicker normally averages out to a few points a week. That doesn’t seem like much, and it isn’t, which is why playing matchups with your kickers is your best bet.

Lindell isn’t considered among the NFL’s elite kickers, but with the exception of last season he has actually been quite consistent as a Bill. From 2004 to 2009, Lindell accounted for 100 or more points five times, and in the only season in which he didn’t reach the 100 mark, he scored 96 points. Lindell’s point total dipped to 79 last season, but much of that has to do with the fact that he attempted only 21 field goals, his least in any season as a Bill.

The Bills’ offense is ever improving, but it isn’t so good that it will put an inordinate amount of touchdowns on the board.  This is good for Lindell as it will likely spell more field goal attempts for him, and that is obviously where the bulk of a kicker’s fantasy points comes from. The big strike against Lindell is the fact that he often has to kick in poor weather in Buffalo. Although he has proven he is capable of kicking in foul weather, it may be best to use him in fantasy when the conditions are better.

5. RB C.J. Spiller

Running back C.J. Spiller arrived in Buffalo to much fanfare last season as the ninth-overall pick in the draft out of Clemson. Although Spiller certainly showed some flashes of the playmaking ability he so often displayed in college, 2010 was largely a disappointment for the speedy back. He totaled just 440 yards from scrimmage and garnered a mere 98 touches on the season.

Spiller also found pay dirt just twice, one of which was compliments of a 95-yard kickoff return against New England. Even with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch already on the roster, Spiller was expected to be the team’s feature back last season. Things didn’t go according to plan, however, as even though Lynch was traded to Seattle, Jackson handled the bulk of the workload. In many ways, Spiller wasn’t used to the best of his ability last season, but head coach Chan Gailey will surely have some packages in place to utilize him in 2011.

Jackson is once again expected to be the No. 1 back this season, but the timeshare should closer to 70/30 or 60/40 as opposed to the 90/10 it was last year. Because of last season the hype has died down a bit on Spiller, though, meaning he should be available in the final rounds. Any Fred Jackson owner should certainly try to handcuff him with Spiller as he has the potential to put up big numbers should Jackson be felled by an injury. Even in a backup role, Spiller should still be much improved in his sophomore season.

4. WR Lee Evans

Prior to last season, wide receiver Lee Evans led the Buffalo Bills in receiving touchdowns every year since his rookie campaign in 2004. He also led the team in receptions and receiving yards in most of those seasons as well. In 2010 he was dethroned by Steve Johnson on all counts, however, and it is safe to say that he is no longer Buffalo’s No. 1 target.

A big reason for Evans’ struggles last season is that his reputation as an elite deep threat preceded him, and thus he was often double covered. What resulted was the worst output of Evans’ career in the form of 37 catches for 578 yards and four touchdowns. At the very least Evans averaged 15.6 yards per catch, meaning that when he did make catches they were normally big plays downfield. Evans’ perceived drop off may actually help him this season as teams begin to focus more on Johnson.

It wasn’t long ago that Evans was considered a top 20 fantasy receiver, but it appears as though those days have come and gone. What hasn’t come and gone, however, is Evans’ deep speed, and as long as he possesses that there is a chance that he could return to form, or at least close to it. The good news for fantasy owners is that Evans can likely be had very late in the draft, and while he may not put up huge numbers, he is a low-risk, high-reward selection.

3. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick may not be the biggest name and he may not have the best physical tools, but he put together a very solid season as Buffalo’s signal caller last season. In just 13 starts, Fitzpatrick totaled 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns as opposed to a reasonable 15 interceptions. He is also capable of using his legs as evidenced by his 269 rushing yards and team leading yards-per-rush average.

Fitzpatrick has full support of the Bills’ organization this year and will be the unquestioned starter. It certainly isn’t a stretch to think that he could repeat or improve upon is 2010 numbers as there are many factors in his favor. Head coach Chan Gailey favors running a spread offense and often puts four or five wide receivers on the field. This means that Fitz is encouraged to pass the ball often. He also has a very good receiving corps with the likes of Steve Johnson, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Brad Smith and David Nelson.

Although Buffalo’s running game isn’t overwhelming by any means, it is solid and serves the purpose of keeping the defense honest and keeping the pressure off Fitzpatrick. The lone issue would probably be the Bills’ poor offensive line. The left side isn’t exactly an abomination, but the right side is and that could certainly throw off Fitzpatrick’s rhythm. He was only sacked 24 times last season, however, and he possesses a quick release so he should be able to overcome it.

Fitz shouldn’t be drafted as a starter by any means, but he could be effective in a platoon situation as he was often able to tear apart some of the league’s weaker defenses last season as well as some of the better ones, namely Baltimore and Pittsburgh. At the very least, Fitzpatrick should be a reliable fantasy backup.

2. RB Fred Jackson

Ever since leaving Coe College, running back Fred Jackson has been written off time and time again. From the United Indoor Football League to NFL Europe to the Buffalo Bills, Jackson has always been an underdog. Despite that, he has also excelled at each and every stop during his career. Jackson has had several hurdles to clear during his time with the Bills, but he has done so each and every time and enters 2011 as the clear starter.

Jackson was very solid last season, rushing for 927 yards and scoring seven total touchdowns. This came off the heels of a 2009 season in which he rushed for 1,062 yards and reeled in 46 receptions. Jackson may not be an elite option at running back, but with so many teams using a running-back-by-committee approach Jackson should have added value due to the fact that he is almost certainly going to receive the bulk of the touches.

While Jackson probably wouldn’t be a starting back on a highly successful fantasy team, he could crack the starting lineup in leagues that utilize a flex player which is an additional running back or wide receiver. Jackson also has added value in point per reception or PPR leagues. He has caught over 30 passes in each of the past three seasons, which means you can add an extra 30 points to his fantasy value in such a league. At worst Jackson makes for an excellent third back who can fill in on bye weeks or if one your starters is injured.

1. WR Steve Johnson

As the 224th-overall pick in the seventh round of the 2008 NFL draft, wide receiver Steve Johnson was probably just happy with the making the Bills’ roster. Just two years later, though, Johnson led the Bills with 82 catches for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns. Johnson is now without question the Bills’ No. 1 receiver and top offensive option. Of course being the main man will come with new challenges as defenses will begin to key on him, though.

Luckily for Johnson he has the benefit of former Pro Bowl receiver Lee Evans on the other side of the field. While Evans seems to be in decline, his deep speed is something that can’t be ignored by opposing defenses. This opens intermediate routes up for the big-bodied Johnson, although he is equally adept at making plays down the field as well.

At just 25 years of age Johnson has yet to enter his prime and has an incredible amount of potential. He clearly developed a great rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick last season and could possibly develop into a 100-catch receiver because of their great synergy. Fantasy owners have reason to hope for an improvement upon his 2010 numbers, but they should expect nothing less than a repeat and be ecstatic when they get it.