The Paths to the BCS Title Game

(Please do not edit by breaking up paragraphs.  It is as I want it...Thanks.)

It's November, and things are starting to look a little clearer at this point.  Yesterday I wrote an article particularly detailing Florida's path to the National Title Game.  Today, I will remove the magnifying glass and look at the chances of those who still have a shot.

Alabama

Games Remaining: Mississippi State, Auburn, Florida (in SEC Championship Game)

Outlook: The next two games should be wins.  Bama got past the opener at Clemson (which at the time seemed difficult), got past Georgia at Georgia, got past the Saban grudge match on the road at LSU, and now face two of the worst teams in this year's SEC before facing Florida.  Win the remaining regular season games and beat Florida, and they are in.

Dominoes needed to fall: None

Texas Tech

Games Remaining: Oklahoma, Baylor, possible Big 12 Championship Game

Outlook: The OU game will tell the tale.  If they win that, they almost assuredly will beat Baylor.  The Big 12 South is where the power is (as we saw with OU pummeling Nebraska, Texas Tech throttling Kansas, and Texas dominating Missouri), so I expect Texas Tech will win that if they get there.  If the Red Raiders beat OU, they can put it on cruise control.

Dominoes needed to fall: None

Texas

Games Remaining: Kansas, Texas A&M, possible Big 12 Championship Game

Outlook: After the loss by Kansas to Nebraska, it appears that they are only the third best team in the Big 12's weaker North division.  Texas A&M has struggled mightily all year, including a loss to Sun Belt team Arkansas State.  Getting in position to go to the Big 12 Championship game isn't the problem.  Having the stars line up so they can is the problem.  If the Horns make the Big 12 Championship game, it will be because Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma and the three-way tiebreaker rules go Texas' way.  Keep in mind that if OU beats Texas Tech but loses to Oklahoma State, Texas is back on the outs because it would be a two-way tie and Texas Tech holds the head to head tiebreaker.

Dominoes needed to fall: Texas Tech to lose to OU and OU beat Oklahoma State (thereby creating a three-way tie) and for the Big 12 three-way tiebreaker rules to break their way.

Florida

Games Remaining: South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida State, Alabama (in SEC Championship Game)

Outlook: As I stated in my article on Florida's chances to make the title game, I firmly believe that if Florida wins out and, in doing so, beats Alabama, they would not only drop Alabama out of the pool of teams standing in their way of one of the top two spots, but also leapfrog Texas.  This is because I don't believe the pollsters and the BCS power players would allow two teams from the same conference to play each other for the title.  Michigan didn't get to with Ohio State a couple of years back when they were 1 and 2.  Florida is No. 4 now, and if they remove Bama by beating them and leapfrog Texas, they are in

Dominoes needed to fall: None

Oklahoma

Games Remaining: Texas Tech, possible Big 12 Championship Game

Outlook: OU is in a strange position.  They have more power than Texas at this point even though they are ranked lower.  Should OU win out and force a three-way tie in the Big 12 South, the three-way tiebreaker rules would have the three teams tied down to which team was ranked higher in the BCS.  Who knows how that would go?  If OU squeaks by Texas Tech, will the pollsters see that Texas beat OU on a neutral field and should have beaten Texas Tech on their field (but left them too much time and gave them a cheap interception score in the third quarter)?  I think Texas stays ahead of OU in the BCS if OU wins close.  Part of the reason I believe that is because OU has lost four straight bowl games and in two of them didn't show up.  They lost back to back title games.  Why aren't they as much of a joke, and why aren't they secretly blackballed like Ohio State?  I'm sure that will be mentioned, and we'll find out.  The coaches' poll has them ahead of Texas, while the Harris has them behind but only slightly.  The computers say Texas for now.  But if OU wins convincingly, I think that OU would certainly leapfrog Texas, making them the team going to the Big 12 Championship game, where they would likely win big and go to the NC game.

Dominoes needed to fall: None if they win big against Texas Tech; BCS help if they win a close one against Texas Tech.

Because so many of these teams only have games left against near-gimmes (which they will win) and each other, it pretty much squeezes everyone else out.  Florida can't lose unless Alabama wins in the process.  Texas Tech can't lose unless Oklahoma wins in the process.  Therefore, if you're USC sitting at No. 6 in the BCS standings, you can't pull for everyone to take a loss because if one takes a loss, another gets the win and stays ranked ahead.  And if No. 6 is frozen out, those below it are even more so.

The bottom line is that all of the top five teams except Texas control their destiny, even though Texas is currently ranked higher than two of them.  It may come down to the old adage that it's best to lose early.  It's total BS that Oklahoma (with a win over Texas Tech) would be rated higher than Texas (who beat OU) and Texas would be rated higher than Texas Tech (who beat Texas), but that's the what we get in this "what have you done to impress me lately aka lose long enough ago for me as a pollster to forget about it"-type stupid system we have.

Whoever wins, most of the college football public will get what they want to see...Big 12 champ versus SEC champ for all the marbles.