Alabama vs. Florida: Looking Ahead by Looking Back at Common Opponents

Well, it's official: Alabama and Florida will knock heads in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 6 in Atlanta, GA. As a Gator fan, SEC fan, and FBS college football fan, I could not be more excited about the renewal of this fine rivalry. It has been dormant for far too long.

This game has the potential to be the biggest of all big games in the history of games that are big. But discussion of "how big" will have to wait because there are still games left to be played for both teams.

Call me guilty of looking ahead if you like, but the facts are undeniable: The Alabama Crimson Tide are SEC West champs and the Florida Gators are SEC East champs. Both teams could lose all of their remaining games and would still remain on a collision course for the SEC Championship Game.

Throw in the fact that each team has already played its six common opponents, and I have all the excuses I need to look ahead to the first Saturday in December.  Furthermore, I consider winning the conference the ultimate goal for SEC teams and generally do my best to ignore the BCS rankings until after the regular season.

So here we go:

Common Opponents

Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Win-Loss Record

Alabama 6-0, Florida 5-1. Advantage: Alabama by one win.

Florida lost to Ole Miss. Alabama did not. Alabama had to go to overtime to beat LSU. Florida did not. But a win is a win and a loss is a loss, and Alabama has shown a gritty determination and will to win reminiscent of the undefeated 1992 team.

Call it luck if you like, but luck favors the prepared, and Nick Saban has had his team prepared to win every week.

Scoring Offense (points per game)

Median: Alabama 28, Florida 44. Advantage: Florida by 16 points.

Maximum: Alabama 49, Florida 63. Advantage: Florida by 14 points.

Minimum: Alabama 17, Florida 30. Advantage: Florida by 13 points.

The points scored against the six common opponents suggest a 13 to 16-point advantage for the Gators.

Scoring Defense (points per game)

Median: Alabama 17, Florida 9. Advantage: Florida by eight points.

Maximum: Alabama 30, Florida 31. Advantage: Alabama by one point.

Minimum: Alabama 9, Florida 5. Advantage: Florida by four points.

The points allowed against the six common opponents suggest anything from a one-point advantage for the Tide to a nine-point advantage for the Gators.

The points for and points against data above strongly suggest that Florida will win the game, and I expect the betting lines to reflect this.  But I will leave it to other more skilled handicappers to determine a “true line” for the matchup.

Offense (median yards per game)

Passing: Alabama 197, Florida 221. Advantage: Florida by 24 yards.

Rushing: Alabama 158, Florida 200. Advantage: Florida by 42 yards.

Total: Alabama 355, Florida 421. Advantage: Florida by 66 yards.

Florida has the advantage with the offensive numbers as might be expected based on the scoring offense data above. Both teams show good balance. It's hard to imagine Florida having a stronger rushing attack than Bama, but there it is.

Defense (median yards per game)

Passing: Alabama 209, Florida 203. Advantage: Florida by six yards.

Rushing: Alabama 71, Florida 123. Advantage: Alabama by 52 yards.

Total: Alabama 280, Florida 326. Advantage: Alabama by 46 yards.

Alabama shows a distinct advantage in rush defense, but that did not translate into an advantage in the scoring defense data above. Looks like the Tide rush defense versus the Gator rush offense could be a key to the game.

Turnovers

Margin: Alabama +4, Florida +8. Advantage: Florida by four turnovers.

Florida’s advantage in turnover margin could help explain why Florida has an advantage in scoring defense and why Alabama has an advantage in rush and total defense above.

Further evaluation of differences in red zone offense, starting field position (i.e., special teams) and other measures of efficiency could also shed light on why this apparent discrepancy exists.

I wish the best of luck to Alabama and Florida the rest of the way and hope that both teams will be victorious and injury-free. Dec. 6 cannot get here fast enough.