Preseason College Football Rankings 2011: 9 Teams That Are Already Way Overrated

Sometimes college football is a lot like junior high school—the popular kids get all the votes.

Whether it's student council elections, cheerleader tryouts, starting spots on sports teams or the lead in the school “musical” (a word you have to use loosely when you’re talking about middle school), the chosen crowd seems to always have the edge.

And, in many cases, popularity doesn’t reflect reality and therefore doesn’t produce favorable results.

Hence, in the great tradition of seventh grade, the following slideshow identifies nine college football programs that are overrated in one or all of the 2011 preseason rankings.

This misguided lofty rating may be due to a stunning performance last season (without regard to huge coaching and personnel losses), years of winning history (no matter how distant) or simply good old junior high school popularity (and in this case the media stirs up the frenzy like a pack of 13-year-old girls).

Oklahoma State

The Sporting News has Oklahoma State ranked No. 12 in their preseason listing, the same spot they secured in Athlon’s yearly publication.

The Cowboys absolutely did shock the world of college football last season by emitting an offensive explosion that resulted in an 11-2 record and a share of the Big 12 South crown.

But, regardless of how impressive 2010 was (and it was), Oklahoma State has at least a few huge issues to address to even come close to mirroring or surpassing their successes from last season.

First, there is the blaring loss of OC Dana Holgorsen, who has since become the head coach at West Virginia. Holgorsen was only the offensive leader in Stillwater for one short year, but is it any coincidence that a squad ranked No. 70 in total offense in 2009 finished 2010 ranked No. 3 under his tutelage?

Secondly, you have the loss of RB Kendall Hunter, whose 1,548 yards led the Cowboys to a No. 36 ranking in rushing yards. This doesn’t seem like a big deal to what was primarily a passing offense until you consider the fact that his 119 yards per game average equaled 23 percent of OSU’s total offense.

Third, what about a defense that ranked No. 88 overall (and No. 115 in passing)?  Yes, these guys gave up more than 400 yards per game and only return five starters in 2011. Ouch.

Lastly, you have a schedule that doesn’t do anyone any favors: at Texas A&M, at Texas, at Missouri, at Texas Tech…Phil Steele has the Cowboys’ schedule ranked as the No. 18 hardest slate in the land.

Oklahoma State may very well be a good team in 2011, but a top-15 ranking seems a stretch (at least from the blurry perspective of the preseason).

Stanford

Seriously, how do you not like Stanford? (Cal and Oregon enthusiasts need not answer.)

The 2010 edition of the singular, yet sensational Cardinal was gritty, determined and fell one huge loss short of playing for the big enchilada (though they did manhandle Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl).

Not surprisingly, the Sporting News has Stanford at No. 4 in their preseason listings while Athlon has them at No. 13, and I would guess that when the real preseason polls are released they’ll easily find the top 10.

Though Stanford may well be that good again (especially given the return of QB Andrew Luck), lingering questions about the departure of seriously-motivated head man Jim Harbaugh (who seemed to endow his team with his intense, winning personality), a mere 11 returning starters and huge holes on the offensive line make you wonder.

Breaking it down further, that’s five returning starters to the No. 9 ranked scoring offense and six returning starters to the No. 10 ranked defense.

The Cardinal may be "all that" once again in 2011, but a top-15 ranking seems more realistic than a top 10 (or top Five).

Florida

Though The Sporting News doesn’t have Florida in their top 25, the folks over at Athlon have the Gators at No. 18, and many sources have them finishing second in the SEC East.

While you absolutely know Florida is talented (more so than most teams in the nation), the Gators have the huge coaching change (and it’s not like they’re saying goodbye to a losing coach), they’re installing a new offense, they return only 10 starters (six on offense and only four on defense) and they play (per Phil Steele) the No. 23 hardest schedule in the land.

You can’t say Florida won’t play well and therefore won’t win some games, but you can look at their schedule and make a pretty strong argument that 2011 could be the second season in a row (after 20 consecutive years of being ranked in the final AP poll, 1990-2009) that the Gators will finish outside the top 25.

Florida is a team that is very difficult to predict to lose (it just feels wrong), but with such a huge transition coming off a very subpar season, it may be another year before they are part of any championship conversations.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes are another team that isn’t ranked in anybody’s top 10, but they appear now and again in the top 25 (Athlon has them at No. 19), and (once again) they are mentioned as the second-best team in the ACC Coastal with a legit shot to win the ACC.

But Miami is another team that has at least a few variables working against a return to glory.

First, they’ve got 14 starters (seven on each side of the ball) returning to a team that went 7-6 last season (which included a loss to Notre Dame in the Sun Bowl); though it’s only fair to quantify this number by pointing out that the Hurricanes return a whopping 46 lettermen (and lose only 16), leadership may be a definite issue.

Second, they’ve got a schedule that Phil Steele ranks as the tenth-hardest schedule in all of college football; at Maryland, at Virginia Tech, at North Carolina, at Florida State and at USF, with home stands against Ohio State, Kansas State and Georgia Tech—hardly the stuff to launch a victorious campaign from.

Lastly, they’ve got history, and in terms of the ACC and Miami, they’ve got a combination that doesn’t have much to show for what was one of the biggest modern conference shifts (until this year’s shift-a-palooza) when the Hurricanes left the Big East for richer pastures in 2004.

In seven seasons as ACC members, the Hurricanes have gone 53-35, finished in the top 25 just three times, gone 2-4 in bowl games and haven’t yet won a single ACC title, divisional or conference.

History never fully predicts the future, but acting like it never happened makes the road back to glory look much shorter, which is very misleading.

I personally think Al Golden may be the long-term solution at Miami, but assuming 2011 is the year to return to the top 20 or vie for a conference title seems questionable at best.

Auburn

Auburn was a frequent member of a bunch of early preseason top 25 rankings, and though they’ve dropped in more current models, The Sporting News has the defending champs at a lofty No. 21 in their annual preseason magazine.

You have to respect what Auburn did last season (on all counts), but the bottom line is that this is a team that returns the least number of starters of any team in the country.

That’s right, Auburn’s six returning starters (three on each side of the ball) are the bottom of the heap nationally, and though you could still argue there is a lot of talent remaining in Tiger Country, these guys have to work through their issues in the SEC West.

And this is the point that really separates teams in similar situations (like TCU) from Auburn; the schedule, the competition and the opposing talent level.

Phil Steele says Auburn’s schedule is the ninth-hardest schedule in the land, which makes a top-25 finish with a depleted squad seem all but improbable.

Sometimes respect and admiration equal high rankings, which at the end of the day is a practice that makes no sense.

Ohio State

Most of the preseason magazines and rankings came out before Jim Tressel was forced out at Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor exited stage left for a earlier than expected stab at a pro career, so therefore it’s not really relevant to mention who ranked the Buckeyes in their top 10 or top 20.

Despite all this, Ohio State is still currently touted as one of the squads most likely to win the Leaders Division (over Wisconsin and Penn State) and make an appearance in the first-ever Big Ten title game, meaning the Buckeyes will no doubt remain somewhere in the lower reaches of the top 25 when the official rankings are released.

Now, the Buckeyes could flourish with the talent and coaches that are left, or they could tank, but we need to remember that this is a team that returns only four starters on the defensive side of the ball and plays what Phil Steele rates as the No. 32 schedule in the country.

Yes, Ohio State has finished the season ranked in the top 25 every year since 2002 (and only once, in 2004, have they finished outside the top 10), but assuming this means sure success in what has been an emotional, catastrophic, "gnashing of teeth" and sackcloth kind of year is just not logical.

The Buckeyes have a lot to prove, but can they turn this into wins against really tough opponents? 

Texas

The Longhorns are a lot like Florida—it’s really difficult to pick against them because frankly it’s hard to imagine them losing to the likes of UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

But wait, they did lose to all those teams in 2010, and though they retain their head coach, they face a load of assistant turnover and return just 12 starters from the team that nosedived to a 5-7 finish last season.

Despite all of this, it’s hard to pick against money, talent and a rich history of recent domination—which is exactly why Texas is ranked in the lower part of a wide array of preseason top 25 lists and will likely be ranked in (or just barely out) of the "official" top 25’s.

And if they start winning (Rice and BYU at home, at UCLA, at Iowa State), we’ll see them shoot up the polls like the mercury in Houston in August.

But Texas struggled so much in 2010 that it’s difficult to just assume they’ll be better, especially with the lack of any concrete evidence that a turnaround is imminent.

Last season the Longhorns were No. 88 in offensive scoring and No. 49 in points allowed, and these lofty numbers were achieved with arguably one of the top-five most talented groups of athletes in college football.

Leadership, entitlement, team chemistry and motivation are all key challenges that will have to be met squarely, then overcome for Texas to get back over the eight-win mark.

Houston

The big news in the Bayou City is Cougar QB Case Keenum being granted approval to play out his final season of eligibility (which was cut short by injury during the third game of the 2010 season).

But does one guy really mean that a team that went 5-7 last season belongs in the top 25?  Well, the highly-reliable Phil Steele has the Cougars at No. 21, and most preseason publications have Houston at the top of the charts in the C-USA West (despite the fact that Tulsa, a 10-3 team last season, returns a whopping 18 starters in 2011).

Now I like Case Keenum, he’s a great athlete (and a fantastic individual) who will no doubt set some serious passing records this coming season, but saying his return means Houston will get back to a 10-win season (they went 10-4 in 2009) seems premature at best.

To illustrate, where do you think the Cougars finished nationally last season in passing yards, keeping in mind that Keenum was completely out of the final nine games?

Well, how would you feel about No. 5…in the country?

So, your top passer and his backup both go out in Game 3, you still rank No. 5 nationally in passing (327.3 yards per game) and you still finish 5-7, what’s the catch?

Well, the answer to that question is made fairly elementary when you consider the fact that Houston finished ranked No. 96 in defensive scoring last season (No. 68 in passing defense and No. 114 in rushing defense).

Moving forward it’s scary to learn that the Cougars return only six starting members of this unit in 2011.

The bottom line is, you can pass for a zillion yards and have one of the best QBs in the country, but if you can’t play defense, you won’t win enough games to win the division or the conference.

Notre Dame

I certainly think the Irish are primed to show improvement in 2011, but as some teams slip down the preseason top 25 lists (i.e. Georgia), Notre Dame just gains momentum (both Phil Steele and Athlon have them at No. 6).

Yes, even though the Golden Domers have as many haters nationwide as anybody, apparently something just feels good about hope, history and hysteria that results in ranking Notre Dame high on the charts.

Again, I think they’ll be better than they were last year, but No. 6—seriously?

The Irish play what Phil Steele rates as the No. 14 hardest schedule in college football, and though they return a whopping 17 starters, they still are the same team that lost to Tulsa and Navy last season.

I think it’s safe to say Brian Kelly is indeed the guy and, much to the delight of NBC, the Irish will be back in contention sooner than later, but a top-10 ranking seems absolutely premature.

Scarily, if the Irish start winning early, they’ll be a top-three team before you can say, "They’re magically delicious."

But, the opener against South Florida in South Bend, at Michigan, then Michigan State and Pitt at home are four quality opponents—all whom the Irish will be favored over, all who, combined, could actually run the tables in reverse (i.e. they could potentially lose every one of these games).