Fantasy Football: Week 10 Preview, Part One

So there are way too many early games this week and hardly any on the back half of the schedule. That basically means we're going to divide this up a little less cleanly for the week, to give the piece tomorrow a bit more meat.

After all, no one likes a vegetarian. So we'll cover half today, and another half tomorrow. Think of it as leftovers. And we all like leftovers, especially meatloaf. 

Don't forget to set rosters tonight.

Let's get to it.

Denver at Cleveland

Who to Start: Jamal Lewis, Peyton Hillis, Jamal Lewis, Steve Heiden

Who to Sit: Brady Quinn, Eddie Royal

What to Expect: Expect to see the Browns do some running.

With Brady Quinn stepping under center, the Browns will look to rely on the running game to take the pressure off of a quarterback that hasn't really played a meaningful snap.

The focus on the run couldn't come at a better time, as the Broncos haven't been able to stop anyone. Look for Lewis to have a big game, breaking 100 yards and scoring twice.

Quinn is going to struggle in his first time out, if only because of nerves. Starting Edwards should still be fine, as with the Broncos depleted in the secondary he'll be able to get free. I like Heiden as an outlet receiver, and he should grab a touchdown in the red zone to make him a sneaky play this week. Avoid Quinn if you can, but these two should be fine in the passing game.

Cutler could find out how hard it is to throw on the Browns. Cleveland has put up a tough defense against most teams, but they haven't seen the tandem talent the Broncos have to offer. Given a limited running attack, I would expect Cutler to throw for three touchdowns. Give two to Brandon Marshall, whose complaining probably nets him some attention. The third goes to Hillis out of the backfield.

Because of the Cleveland secondary, I'd keep Royal reserved if I had better options this week.

Ryan Torain and Hillis will get the bulk of the work in the backfield. I'm not expecting huge days from either, but Hillis is the better play today. He'll be worked as a receiver as much as anything else, and that makes him more than worth it in PPR formats. Torain will be in his first game situation. Avoid him in this one, but he has value down the line.

Sleeper Pickup: Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain. Someone has to run the ball in Denver. Thanks to injuries, we now have an idea who.

New Orleans at Atlanta

Who to Start: Deuce McAllister, Matt Ryan, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson
 
Who to Sit: Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas
 
What to Expect: Expect both teams to use the run effectively.

The Falcons are 22nd in the league against the run. With no sign of a suspension or appeal hearing on the horizon for McAllister, use him now. Deuce should be just fine in this matchup. He should crack 90 yards with a score and haul in three or four passes as well. He's been more featured than either of the other two in the offense.

Thomas could still steal a touchdown, but it's a tough call unless you're desperate.

Brees is going to be fine, and you start him under all conditions. Keep Colston active this week as well. Lance Moore is getting enough targets to make him valuable as a flex receiver, especially in PPR formats. Look for him to approach 90 yards on 11 catches.

Henderson is hit or miss, but he should be good for one long touchdown. Without Bush in the lineup, the Saints have tried to spread the football around more than normal, making all these guys good plays.

Until someone decides to stop Matt Ryan, I'm going to have to recommend you play him. It pains me, but it's true. Even last week, when Roddy White struggled, Ryan found Michael Jenkins for two scores. He's not relying just on the one receiver. Keep him active, and expect him to throw for two more. I like Roddy White for both of them.

No concerns on the run game, you start Turner as an RB2 this week.
 
Sleeper Pickup: No real sleepers in this one outside of Moore and Henderson, who are only about 50 percent owned in most formats.

Tennessee at Chicago

Who to Start: Greg Olsen, Both Defenses, Bo Scaife
 
Who to Sit: Rashied Davis, Devin Hester, Kerry Collins, Rex Grossman
 
What to Expect: Defense, defense, defense.

The Titans have done their best to change how they approach the game, but they're still a run-first team. Collins will need to throw to help them win here, and you can throw on the Bears. I just question his consistency. If you need to reach, Justin Gage is the only receiver that is worth a start on the Tennessee side.

Bo Scaife should be just fine to play and likely grabs a touchdown pass to go with 55 yards.

The concern has to be the running game. The Bears are lethal against the run, but can they stop two feature backs? No one has been able to contain White or Johnson at all this season. Regardless of the defense, the two haven't failed to impress. I'm slightly downgrading both of them because of who they face, but both must start. Keep White as a flex and Johnson as an RB2 and you won't be disappointed in numbers.

The Bears hopes rest on if Orton gets under center. If Grossman is involved, the Tennessee defense is going to have a field day. If we know early who is starting, receivers can be adjusted accordingly. I'd keep Rashied Davis down regardless, though he was a play last week. Hester is only an option for me if Orton is under center. I like Olsen regardless.

Matt Forte is a must-start in all formats, no worries here, but reduce expectations because of the defense he is going against.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Scaife. He makes a fine outlet against a tough defense.

Jacksonville at Detroit

Who to Start: Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Kevin Smith
 
Who to Sit: Daunte Culpepper, Fred Taylor
 
What to Expect: Can you expect something to be MORE of a disaster?

Look, I think the Lions, at the end of the day, made the wrong move in looking for Culpepper as an answer. They have two young quarterbacks and a lame duck coach/GM/front office/whatever. How is Culpepper going to make this team better now? Isn't it going to take three to four weeks to learn the offense? Millen might be gone, but his legacy remains...

Calvin Johnson will be a good play still. It won't matter who is under center, because all they have to do is toss it up to Johnson, and he'll make a play or two. I'd also look to keep Kevin Smith around. He's scoring nearly every week and is running the ball well. He's the only other option in the Detroit offense. The only concern would be how far behind they get before they abandon the run.

For Jacksonville, expect them to keep running the football, because that's what you do against Detroit. I see a good game for Jones-Drew here, and likely the same for Garrard. Jones-Drew breaks 100 and scores. Garrard likely runs for 40 and accounts for three touchdowns.

Reggie Williams and Matt Jones should both be decent plays in this one. Both grab touchdowns. Jones is the better PPR player, but Williams will make a big play or two and end up with around 80 yards himself.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Williams. He's been better in each of the last several weeks.

Seattle at Miami

Who to Start: Greg Camarillo, Chad Pennington, Ted Ginn, John Carlson, Miami Defense
 
Who to Sit: All Seahawks not named John Carlson, Ricky Williams
 
What to Expect: Expect to continue to see that Seattle doesn't travel well.

Seattle hasn't looked good in any trip east in a while. Miami should be able to take advantage of that situation. Chad Pennington has played admirably well and has done a solid job of getting the ball to both Camarillo and Ginn. Camarillo is a WR3 in most formats but could jump to a two in deeper leagues this week. For bye week fill-ins, you could do worse than either Camarillo or Ginn.

I like both to score, and Camarillo will break 100 yards with another nine-plus catches. Pennington closes in on 300 yards with two scores.

The bread and butter has been the running game. Ronnie Brown is doing the heavy lifting here, and he should be started in all formats. I'm not sold on Williams this week. Even if you need a secondary back, there are better options to explore.

The only thing I like about Seattle is that Matt Hasselbeck is likely back next week. Keep Carlson active. The Seahawks looked to get him 40-50 catches at the beginning of the season and are halfway to that total. That means he'll see throws his way every single week. That alone gives him some value.

Avoid their running game. Miami's defense makes a great play this week for teams without someone like Tampa Bay.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Carlson, for reasons stated above.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Who to Start: Donald Driver, Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, Donald Lee
 
Who to Sit: Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson
 
What to Expect: This is one of my favorite games every year. Regardless of records, this one is just always exciting. As a football fan, you have to appreciate that.

With how poorly the secondary has played in Minnesota, expect Jennings and Driver to have solid days. It won't leave many balls to go around if you are looking at a guy like Jordy Nelson.

I'd rather dance with the heavy hitters in this one. Donald Lee stands a solid chance of a good game as well. Rodgers should throw for three, simply because it isn't likely the running game will be there.

Ryan Grant hasn't been good against tougher defenses, and that's exactly what he's going to get here. Both he and Jackson will be used, but it will more be to set up the passing game. If you can afford to bench Grant, I would do so and look elsewhere.

The Vikings will attack Green Bay on the ground. The Packers give up yardage there, and the Vikings have one of the best in football when it comes to taking it. I like Peterson to go off for 130 and two touchdowns. With him running so well, there will be opportunity for Chester Taylor to steal a few carries as well. In deeper leagues, Taylor makes a good flex play.

I wouldn't go out of my way to start Gus Frerotte because of how strong the running attack will be. That said, Frerotte should put up two scores and 200 yards against Green Bay. Berrian and Shiancoe are going to be the recipients for this one. Sidney Rice had a nice day last week, but let's see him do it again before we go out and grab him for rosters.

Sleeper Pickup: Lee. He's been sheltered recently, but he has the opportunity to make a difference in this one against the Vikings.

Buffalo at New England

Who to Start: Lee Evans, Josh Reed, Fred Jackson, Wes Welker, Matt Cassel, Kevin Faulk
 
Who to Sit: Not many people that you shouldn't like in this one.
 
What to Expect: This game screams offense to me. The Bills started out playing well, but have struggled against the division. The Patriots are coming off a tough loss but are facing a team that they know they need to beat.

Trent Edwards hasn't been able to beat two secondaries that are better than people give them credit for. That won't be the case against New England. Edwards is going to have to throw the ball, as the Patriots have set out to do nothing but stop the run. Lee Evans and Josh Reed (if healthy) should have great days. I like Evans for two touchdown grabs and 110 yards in this one.

Don't sleep on Derek Fine, either. He made a difference last week, and the Pats give up points to offenses. Edwards throws for three touchdowns and 240 yards this week.

I like Fred Jackson this week if you need a flex play in deeper formats. He catches the ball well, and that will be a help to Edwards. You start Lynch and expect him to put up 70 yards on the ground with a score.

The Patriots will continue to pound away on the ground. Green-Ellis and Faulk are both fine flex options this week, as we still are never fully sure who will get the bulk of the work. I like Faulk better this week, mainly because of his history against Buffalo.

Cassel will be fine, as the Bills secondary is as beaten up as the Patriots. This should make for a better day for Moss and Welker than we have seen in a few weeks. Donte Whitner is out, and several players in the Bills secondary didn't practice on Wednesday. Cassel throws for two touchdowns and 230 yards.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Faulk. He has a tendency to do good things against Buffalo. Take a gamble.

Back tomorrow to cover the remaining games.