NFL Week 10 Predictions

Week 10 NFL Predictions

Boxscores and stats from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

Nov. 4, 2008

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here.

If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: No. 1 Tennessee 24 @ No. 15 Bears 16

We could discuss the NFC East showdown between the Giants and Eagles as not only the lone top-five matchup of the week, it's one of just two of our predicted upsets of the week (by spread—Baltimore over Houston is the other), but that marquee game is really too close to call (51.2%/48.8%) and we highlight the NFC East just about every week.

In Chicago, the NFC North leading Bears will host the undefeated Titans. The projection is that Tennessee defeats Chicago 65.2 percent of the time and by an average score for 24-16, yet I would actually be surprised if either team scores that many points. With Orton, these teams are essentially mirror images of each other (great defensive line, opportunistic secondary, an all-purpose rookie running back, multiple effective tight ends, a quarterback who does not make mistakes).

In fact, when we ran this game last week with Kyle Orton at QB, the Bears actually won 51 percent of the time by an average score of 18-17, indicating the only significant difference in the game was home-field advantage.

Things change pretty dramatically with Rex Grossman at the helm. Against a stout Titans run defense and with a rookie starting running back who only averages 3.8 yards-per-carry, Chicago will have to find a way to move the ball through the air if it wants to win this game.

Grossman throws another 0.7 interceptions per game on average more than Orton in the simulations, which accounts for most of the winning percentage disparity as well as the increase in scoring from the Titans.

If Grossman can do his best Orton impression and hit a big play or two in the passing game without giving the ball away, the Bears can win this game. About two-thirds of the time that does not happen.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 10 Scores for Every NFL Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Seattle @ Miami	87.1	14-28	Boxscore
Kansas City @ San Diego	87.1	18-31	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh	86.6	11-24	Boxscore
San Francisco @ Arizona	86.6	21-34	Boxscore
St. Louis @ New York Jets	85.6	16-30	Boxscore
Denver @ Cleveland	75.1	19-28	Boxscore
New Orleans @ Atlanta	64.7	24-29	Boxscore
Green Bay @ Minnesota	58.7	19-24	Boxscore
Buffalo @ New England	54.2	22-25	Boxscore
New York Giants @ Philadelphia	48.8	23-20	Boxscore
Baltimore @ Houston	45.8	27-23	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Detroit	36.8	24-17	Boxscore
Tennessee @ Chicago	34.8	24-16	Boxscore
Carolina @ Oakland	23.4	26-14	Boxscore

 

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!