College Football 2011: 20 Predictions for the Big 12

The Big 12 is annually one of the nation's top three conferences. This year will be no exception as the league features several teams that can contend for the national title, multiple elite quarterbacks and electrifying playmakers—including a few that could contend for the Heisman Trophy. The league also features a new look after Nebraska left for the Big 10 and Colorado went to the Pac-12.

Here are 20 predictions for the reconfigured Big 12.

Texas Will Improve

This might be one of the easiest predictions to make this year, but there is no doubt the Longhorns will be better than 5-7 last season. Texas received a major facelift after offensive coordinator Greg Lewis was replaced by co-offensive coordinators Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite. Manny Diaz takes over the defense from Will Muschamp, who left to be the head coach at Florida.

Texas returns its top three rushers, quarterback Garrett Gilbert and its top three tacklers from a defense that ranked sixth best in the nation in yards allowed. Last year's drop-off can mainly be attributed to four losses by eight points or fewer and a minus-12 turnover margin (Texas had been plus-33 in turnovers from 2004-09). Both of those things likely won't happen this year.

Coach Mack Brown had won at least 10 games every season from 2001-09. Texas does have a tough schedule with an early home game against BYU and a road contest at UCLA plus tough games against Oklahoma, at Missouri and at Texas A&M. I expect at least nine wins.

Texas Will Have a 1,000-Yard Rusher

One of strangest statistics about the Longhorns is their recent lack of 1,000-yard rushers. The 'Horns have produced several all-time great running backs, including Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams, but have had just one 1,000-yard rusher in the last five years.

Jamaal Charles rushed for 1,619 yards in 2007. Since then, Colt McCoy (561 yards), Tre Newton (513 yards) and Cody Johnson (591 yards) have led Texas in rushing yards. The Longhorns ranked 66th nationally in rushing last season. That will change this year when freshman Malcolm Brown, rated as the nation's No. 2 running back by ESPN Scouts Inc., joins the 'Horns. Expect Brown to clear 1,000 yards.

Missouri's Quarterback Success Will Continue

According to college football statistician Phil Steele, Missouri has had just three starting quarterbacks since 2002, the fewest in the Big 12. Those three, though, have put up big numbers.

Brad Smith (2002-05) left as the Tigers' all-time leading rusher and passer. Then, Chase Daniel (2005-08) broke Smith's school record for passing yards and was a Heisman finalist. Last, Blaine Gabbert had two solid years as the starter and was a No. 1 draft pick. The trio has helped Mizzou average at least 29 points per game in eight of the last nine years.

From 1988 to 2002, Mizzou had just one year where they averaged at least 30 points. This year, James Franklin will continue the success. Franklin completed 11-of-14 passes in limited time last year and will have his top eight wideouts back. Expect another big season from the Tigers quarterback.

Watch for Baylor's Big-Play Ability

Last year, Baylor went to its first bowl game since 1994, partly because of its big-play ability. They set a school record for yards per carry (5.4) and had 14 plays of 50-plus yards, tied for second in the nation, according to cfbstats.com. No other team currently in the Big 12 had more than eight.

Baylor returns electrifying quarterback Robert Griffin III (3,501 passing yards, 635 rushing), but loses running back Jay Finley (1,218 yards). Still, look for Griffin and an experienced offensive line to roll up more big plays than any other Big 12 team.

Iowa State Will Beat a Ranked Team

Iowa State is 1-14 against ranked teams in the last five years. The lone win was a 9-7 victory against then-No. 14 Nebraska in 2009. But the Cyclones came close several times last season. They lost to No. 18 Missouri, 14-0, and lost to No. 20, Nebraska, 31-30.

However, Iowa State could have won both games. Iowa State out-gained Nebraska—usually a key indicator on who wins—360-314. Versus Missouri, Iowa State out-gained the Tigers 332-306 and had three sacks to the Tigers' zero. This year, Iowa State will knock off a ranked team.

Oklahoma Will Have Another First Team Offensive Lineman

One underrated reason for the Sooners' continued success has been offensive line play. In the last five years, Oklahoma is the only Big 12 team to have at least one offensive lineman named first team all-conference.

In 2006, Chris Messner earned the honor. In 2007, it was Duke Robinson. Three linemen were first team in 2008, while Trent Williams was first team in '09 and Eric Mensik collected the award last season. This year, Oklahoma brings back four offensive line starters in senior left tackle Donald Stephenson, sophomore left guard Gabe Ikard, junior right guard Tyler Evans and junior center Ben Habern. Look for one of the four to earn first team all-conference.

Kansas Will Lose to Kansas State....

Kansas has two big rivals, Missouri and Kansas State. In the last 14 meetings against K-State, Kansas is 1-6 when the game was in Manhattan,  and 3-4 when they hosted the game in Lawrence.

In those six losses in Manhattan, Kansas has averaged 8.3 points per game and lost four of the contests by at least 30 points. This year, the game is in Lawrence, but expect the Jayhawks to lose.

....But the Jayhawks Will Beat Missouri

Kansas and Missouri is one of the most underrated rivalries in major college athletics. The "Border War" is a contest between two teams and towns that really, really don't like each other. But the series has often produced upsets.

Since 1997, there have been eight upsets in the series, six by KU, according to Phil Steele. Twice, an unranked Kansas team has beaten a ranked Missouri squad. In 2003, Kansas defeated No. 23 Missouri, 35-14. In 2008, Kansas beat No. 12 Missouri, 40-37. This year, Kansas should see big improvements under second-year coach Turner Gill. On Nov. 26, Kansas and Missouri will play each other in a neutral site game at Kansas City for the fifth straight year—look for Kansas to win.

Look for Big Numbers from the Brown Brothers

Kansas State will have the much heralded Brown brothers on the field for the first time this fall. Arthur Brown, a linebacker and transfer from Miami, will be a first team all-Big 12 linebacker and will collect at least 90 tackles. His brother Bryce, was the No. 1 running back out of high school, according to Rivals.com. Bryce went to Tennessee first before he transferred to K-State. Look for Bryce to exceed 1,000 rushing yards and, like his brother, earn first team all-conference honors.

Ryan Broyles Will Shatter Several Records

Oklahoma wideout Ryan Broyles led the nation with 131 catches—and zero drops—last season. Broyles earned first team All-American honors and upped his career numbers to 266 catches for 3,429 yards.

This year, Broyles, helped by quarterback Landry Jones and a veteran offensive line, will have another big season. Expect him to break the NCAA Division I records for catches (316, set by Purdue's Taylor Stubblefield) and yards (5,005 set by Nevada's Trevor Insley).

Brandon Weeden's Numbers Will Go Down

Last year, Brandon Weeden helped Oklahoma State enjoy one of the greatest seasons in school history when he passed for 4,277 yards and 34 scores. But offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen left for West Virginia and is now the Mountaineers' head coach.

In the spring, Weeden taught new offensive coordinator Todd Monken the OSU offense; usually it's the coordinator teaching the quarterback. The different relationship will produce a good season, but having a first-year coordinator will cause a drop in numbers for Weeden.

Justin Blackmon's Numbers Will Drop Some, Too

Last year, Justin Blackmon earned the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top wideout. He had 111 catches for 1,782 yards and a nation-best 20 scores. While Blackmon will have at least 90 catches, it's going to be hard to match last year's numbers.

In 2010, OSU averaged 44.2 points per game, its best total in 22 years, and won 11 games for the first time in school history. Blackmon won't receive much help in the backfield after running back Kendall Hunter (1,548 yards) is gone. Blackmon will face double and triple teams all year and, while he will get his catches and yards, it's going to be hard to match 2010's special year.

Texas A&M Will Win a Bowl Game

The Aggies saw big improvements last season from fourth-year coach Mike Sherman. This year, A&M will be a top-25 team and will accomplish something they haven't done since 2001: win a bowl game. Texas A&M is 13-19 all-time in bowl games, but have lost its last five in a row since they defeated TCU 28-9 in the '01 galleryfurniture.com bowl.

Since then, A&M has lost the Cotton, Holiday, Alamo, Independence and Cotton again. Only one game is within 20 points. Three times in those five years A&M has lost a bowl game while being ranked. The streak ends this year.

Texas Tech Won't Win Eight Games

The Red Raiders have won at least eight games every season since 2001. While Texas Tech has a strong team, they won't win eight this year after they graduated its leading rusher, quarterback, top two receivers and leading tackler.

Landry Jones and Robert Griffin Will Hit Career Milestones

Entering the season, Oklahoma's Landry Jones ranks third all-time in school history for career passing yards at 7,916. Robert Griffin III is Baylor's all-time leading passer with 6,073 yards. Only five quarterbacks in Big 12 history have ever thrown for 10,000 yards—Texas Tech's Graham Harrell and Kliff Kingsbury, Texas' Colt McCoy, Missouri's Chase Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing. Jones and Griffin will both eclipse the milestone this year and finish in the top 10 of the Heisman race.

Conference Will Remain Strong

Even with Nebraska and Colorado leaving for the Big-10 and Pac-12 respectively, the Big 12 will still field one of the nation's top three conferences. The Big 12 is elite at the top part of the conference and very strong in the middle. Oklahoma is a national title contender, while Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas and Missouri are all top-10 to top-20 programs.

Texas Tech and Kansas State could push for eight to nine wins and could be surprise teams. The league will get two BCS bids and have six teams win at least nine games for the first time since 2008.

OU Will Lose a Home Game

One of the nation's most inflated stats is Oklahoma's home record under coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners are 72-2 in Norman under Stoops and haven't lost a home game since '05. That's because, of course, Oklahoma doesn't play its biggest rival—Texas—at home.The two meet every year at the Cotton Bowl, a rivalry that often goes back and forth (OU hasn't beaten Texas in back-to-back years since 2003-04).

This year, the Sooners will drop a home game against a tough schedule. Right away, Oklahoma will face Tulsa at home in Week 1, a darkhorse BCS contender. Oklahoma has struggled in season openers in the last five years, falling to BYU in 2009 and squeaking by Utah State 31-24 in 2010 and UAB 24-17 in 2006. If Tulsa doesn't beat Oklahoma, then look for Missouri on Oct. 1 or Texas A&M on Nov. 5 to accomplish the feat.

Conference Will Have Elite Punters

The Big 12 is known for high-octane offenses, great quarterbacks and electrifying receivers. But they were the nation's best at a little known position last season: punting. Oklahoma State's Quinn Sharp finished second in the country in punting (46.4 yards), Iowa's Kirby Van Der Kamp was 10th (45.2) and Oklahoma's Tress Way was 22nd (44.0). All three return, so expect plenty of booming punts and long drives for some of the nation's top offenses.

No One Will Go Undefeated

In the last four years, only Texas in 2009 has posted an undefeated record in conference play. Five teams finished 6-2 in the league last year, while three teams were 7-1 in 2008 and two teams were 7-1 in 2007. With so many elite teams and solid depth, no squad will go undefeated in league play.

Oklahoma Will Win the Conference

The Sooners' coaching staff continuity, quarterback Landry Jones, wideout Ryan Broyles, a veteran offensive line and a strong linebacking and defensive back corps will lead the Sooners to the conference championship. Expect Oklahoma to drop one game in league play and squeak by in several others, but this is the conference's top squad.