Penn State Football: Week 10 Review and Week 11 Preview

Week 10 Review

Penn State did not play last week, as they used their bye week to get healthy and enjoy their huge victory over Ohio State last week.

In my article last week, I previewed the chances of Penn State making the national championship.  This assumes that the Nittany Lions will win their remaining three games.

Last week the Lions stood at No. 3 in the BCS standings, behind only Texas and Alabama.  Needing to only move ahead of one of these teams to be in position for the national championship, I predicted that both Texas and Alabama would lose before the end of the season

Last week Texas fulfilled their half of my prophecy by falling to Texas Tech in a thrilling night game on national television.  But something unforeseen happened in the BCS standings for this week.

The Longhorns dropped below the Nittany Lions in the newest BCS rankings, but still Penn State stood at No. 3.  This is because Texas Tech vaulted ahead of PSU up to the No. 2 ranking after their victory over Texas.

I actually began to worry about this a little bit during the first half of the game, when Texas Tech was beating Texas rather handily.  I decided that if Texas Tech won by a convincing margin over Texas, then they probably would jump Penn State in the rankings

But Texas Tech did not win by a convincing margin.  They squandered their 22-6 halftime lead and had to score a touchdown with one second remaining to win the game, at home, against the Longhorns. 

So what’s the big deal?  Texas Tech is undefeated and just defeated the previous team that was ranked No. 1.  The jump is certainly well explained, but I don’t think it accurately reflects the normal movement in the BCS rankings over the years.  Teams at the very top of the rankings usually only slide down if they lose.

But I can accept rewarding Texas Tech for this week, especially since Penn State didn’t play.  My only question then is, how does Alabama remain ahead of Texas Tech?

Alabama played Arkansas State, a very mediocre small-conference team, and defeated them rather unimpressively.  The biggest argument against Penn State that I have heard is their weak schedule.  So then how is beating Arkansas State significantly better than having a bye week

In the end, none of this SHOULD matter.  Alabama should still lose a game, as I predicted last week.  Texas Tech has arguably the toughest remaining schedule in all of College Football and will have many chances to lose.  So Penn State will, in all likelihood, be able to move ahead of at least one of these two teams.

The main concern I have now is that a team with one loss could pass an undefeated Penn State team.  I have heard this mentioned several times in recent days, and I find the idea absolutely appalling. 

The Big Ten may be weaker than the SEC and Big 12, but going undefeated in the Big Ten is still a very big deal.  Winning at Ohio State is a very tough task.  On top of that, Penn State played two major conference teams in their non-conference schedule.

What team could possibly claim they deserve a national title spot over Penn State with one loss

Certainly not USC.  The Trojans and Nittany Lions actually share one common opponent.  Penn State thrashed Oregon State, while USC actually lost to them.

Can’t be Florida.  Florida lost AT HOME to Mississippi, who is not one of the better teams in the SEC.  Does anyone really think that Penn State would lose to Mississippi?

How about Oklahoma?  Their only loss was a close game at Texas, who is clearly a very good team.  But keep in mind that Penn State has no losses.

The Sooners do play in the Big 12, which is perceived to be extremely good, but what about their non-conference schedule?  They beat Chattanooga, Cincinnati, and Washington.  How is this better than Penn State’s non-conference schedule of Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse, and Temple?

Okay then, Oklahoma State.  They also have only lost to Texas in a close game.  Their non-conference wins are Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, and Troy.  Is that better than Penn State’s

Well then, it has to be Texas.  Texas is currently ranked the highest of all the one-loss teams and is just coming off the No. 1 ranking before their loss last Saturday.  Their non-conference wins are Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas.  Not much better than Penn State’s either.

Oh, and about all of their wins against the top Big 12 teams...none of them came on the road.  Penn State has impressive road victories at Wisconsin and at Ohio State, with another opportunity coming at Iowa. 

Let’s make one thing very clear about the Big 12.  None of their top teams have a non-conference win to speak of, so there is no real barometer as to how well the conference compares to other conferences.  Their teams seem to be pretty even, but that doesn’t mean that they are all great.

Great offensive statistics do not equate to being a good football team.  If teams in the Big Ten made a pact to not play defense, I’m sure you would see some impressive offensive numbers there as well.

If any team with one loss jumps an undefeated Penn State to eliminate PSU from National Title convention, I hereby vow to not watch any BCS bowl game besides the one Penn State plays in.

Week 11 Preview

Penn State plays their final road game of the regular season this Saturday as they travel to Iowa to play the Hawkeyes at 3:30 pm. 

Iowa has started to show a lot of promise lately in their games, mostly behind the great success of running back Shonn Greene.  The Hawkeyes are coming off of a tough loss to Illinois last week, but they are looking to pull off a major upset of Penn State this weekend.  A win for Iowa would make them bowl-eligible.

In my article from the beginning of the summer, I had predicted Penn State to win this game by a score of 24-20.  While I think Iowa may hang in with Penn State for a while, I think the Nittany Lions will be eager to make a statement to BCS pollsters in this game and will win by a larger margin.  My new prediction is for Penn State to win this game by a score of 37-10.

While both of these teams feature very talented and successful running backs, I think the key to the game for both teams lies with the quarterbacks

Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark is expected to play after suffering a concussion in the win against Ohio State on Oct. 25.  Clark has been the leader and major difference-maker for the PSU offense all season, and his ability to lead the offense will play a big part in determining how many points the Nittany Lions can put up on the board.  I expect Clark to rebound very nicely and have a big day through the air.

Receiver Jordan Norwood has been relatively quiet since a hamstring injury before the Big Ten opener, but if he is healthy, he should be ready to have a very big game. 

On the other side of the ball, Penn State is very good at stopping the run.  They will focus their attention on the Hawkeye running attack, and Greene will not find the same success against the Nittany Lions as he has had in other games this season.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been successful at times this season but has only thrown for over 200 yards in a game once this year.  Penn State will force Stanzi to beat them, and he won’t be able to sustain a reasonable level of success for an entire game

Finally, look for PSU running back Evan Royster to also have a big day.  Penn State’s success in the passing game should help open up the running attack late in the game especially.  Royster should also have benefited from the bye week.  As this is his first full season, the starting running back may have begun to tire physically.