NFL Lockout's Lasting Impact on Fantasy Football in 2011

With another round of mediation set for Monday and Tuesday between NFL owners and player representatives that may lead to resolution of the few remaining hurdles in negotiations, it appears the 2011 NFL Lockout may finally, blissfully, be coming to an end.

This will be cause for much jubilation in fantasy football leagues across the country, but before we pop the cork on the bubbly it's important to remember that the lockout—which sucked most of the fun out of the spring and early summer for fantasy football fanatics—will continue to affect players and leagues well into the season.

Soon after a new deal is reached there will be a free agent feeding frenzy, as nearly 500 players will enter unrestricted free agency (should reports that players with four years service time will be eligible prove correct) and others find themselves looking for work after being released by their current teams. The uncertainty regarding these players and their 2011 homes has led to the postponement of many fantasy drafts and left clouds of doubt surrounding many players' fantasy values, especially in dynasty leagues or in those that chose to draft early.

Will quarterback Carson Palmer follow through on his threats to retire if he's not traded by the Cincinnati Bengals? Will running back DeAngelo Williams follow coach John Fox to the Denver Broncos, eviscerating Knowshon Moreno's fantasy value? Where will such former fantasy standouts as wide receivers Randy Moss and Plaxico Burress land, and do either have anything left in the tank?

These questions and many others that usually would have long ago been resolved should begin to be answered in the next couple weeks during a period that will leave many fantasy football writers seeking treatment for carpal tunnel syndrome.

In addition, with NFL teams and players forbidden from communication or interaction, many players who are rehabbing from injuries suffered during the 2010 campaign have not been allowed access to their respective teams' medical staffs, making their health an even bigger question mark headed into the upcoming season. This is not to say the likes of San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore, who was fifth among running backs in fantasy points per game a year ago but whose season was cut short by a hip injury, don't have access to top-notch medical care on their own, but his fantasy owners would likely feel much better had he been monitored by team doctors.

Also, while players have been holding informal workouts, gathering on their own in various locales, not every player has participated, and with no organized team activities you have to wonder what sort of shape those players will be in when they report to camp.

NFL players are highly trained professionals, and many of them will certainly show up ready to go, but if a player has slacked off just a bit during this agonizingly extended downtime that could result in increased injury risk down the road.

For instance, would you rather have had Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis (who experienced a breakout 1,200-yard, top five-fantasy season but seemed to wear down as the season progressed) working out at a team facility under the eye of the Browns training staff or pumping iron on his own and doing promotional appearances for Madden '12?

No knock on Hillis, but the lack of OTAs raise questions such as these that fantasy owners will have to think about as they're glancing at their cheat sheets on draft day.

The freeze out between NFL teams and players has also prevented teams with new coaching staffs from getting a jump on instilling new schemes and placing their stamp on their new squads, placing those teams and the players on them in the precarious position of playing catch-up once camps finally get underway. The changes in both scheme and personnel that new head coaches in places like Cleveland, Carolina and Denver will implement—and how those changes will affect the fantasy football values of such players as Hillis and surprise 2010 star wide receiver Brandon Lloyd of the Broncos—are issues that we would have at least gotten a glimpse into by this point.

But as of now we're still in the dark waiting for someone to flip the switch.

No group has been more affected by this lack of contact with NFL teams than the incoming rookies, who have seen their development significantly impacted by the lack of OTAs and interaction with coaches. They may have received a playbook and participated in an informal workout or two, but the chances that players such as Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton or Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder will start early have been diminished, striking a blow to the fantasy values of those and other rookies, especially in redraft leagues.

Lastly, let's not forget the plight of the undrafted free agents, who have been left twisting in the wind, training on their own, and hoping that the lockout would end so that the phone might ring, affording them a shot at latching on with an NFL team.

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, quarterback Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys and 2010 RB1 Arian Foster of the Houston Texans were all undrafted free agents. While it's possible that a player few have heard of will emerge from the 2011 class and become a fantasy star, they've no doubt been left an unenviable hole to dig themselves out of early.

There's no question that the end of the 2011 NFL lockout will be cause for celebration among fantasy football players, especially given that the regular season will apparently be saved. But wise team owners will be well served to remember that the ramifications of it will extend into the fall, and the team that keeps those considerations in mind may well be the one lifting the league trophy at season's end.