Predictions from Top Fantasy Football Writers on Post Lockout Player Movement

What do you do when free agency and NFL player movement is in a forced state of suspended animation?  You prognosticate (a fancy word for making things up and guessing the future).

When the dreaded NFL lockout is finally lifted, there will be a frenzy of free agent signings and player trades that will reshape the fantasy football landscape.  In anticipation of the craziness that will ensue when the NFL operations open, several of the best independent fantasy sports writers on the web have decided to make a series of player movement predictions. 

This series, titled Fantasy Football Chain Reaction, will be the first project by a group called the "Independent Fantasy Sports Writers Round Table."  The writers participating in the FF Chain Reaction series are:

Mike Clay, ProFootballFocus.com

Scott Pashley,  FFSpin.com

Jim Day, GoAheadScore.com

Rick Perkins, FantasyFootballTrader.com (FFT is being redesigned and will relaunch soon)

Lou Tranquilli,  BFDFantasyFootball.com

John Paulsen, FantasyShrink.com

Enjoy the first five player movement predictions and follow the entire series of 25 right HERE.

Fantasy football writers who would like to participate in future projects can email Scott Pashley at [e-mail].

FF Chain Reaction No. 1: DeAngelo Williams to Denver Broncos

Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus.com says that the Broncos will make a big splash by signing the top rusher from this free agent class.

The Panthers have said they want to keep Williams around, but they already have a talented workhorse in Jonathan Stewart and a capable back-up/third-down back in Mike Goodson. Carolina does have plenty of cap room, but plenty of needs, as well. Paying Williams the big bucks will mean having to sacrifice elsewhere. Considering that he is the best back on the market, there was little doubt that some team would pay the big bucks for his services.

That team is the Denver Broncos. Team President John Elway and Co. seem to view Knowshon Moreno as more of a situational/committee back than a feature back. Signing Williams allows them to use new head coach John Fox’s former workhorse in Carolina as the early down back in Denver. Moreno slides into the "RB 1B" role, which entails a handful of carries and a heavy dose of work on passing downs. Fox can now feel comfortable returning to his run-heavy offense, all the while easing inexperienced Tim Tebow into a full-time job as the starting quarterback.

Fantasy Football Spin: As a member of the Broncos, Williams finds himself among the top 20 backs in standard leagues and is a back-end RB2 in PPR formats. Moreno will eat into his carries and steal most of the work on passing downs, but a high yards-per-carry rate in a run-first offense will allow Williams plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points.

Fantasy Football Chain Reaction No. 2: Kevin Kolb to the Seattle Seahawks

On the heels of the top free agent target signing with Denver, Scott Pashley of FFSpin.com predicts that the top trade target of the 2010 offseason will go to Seattle, not Arizona.

The Kevin Kolb lottery ends with Seattle offering the most first- and third-round picks in 2012.  The Eagles had sought a player or players in exchange for their one-time future franchise QB who became expendable after the reemergence of Michael Vick.  But with no team willing to part with established talent the Eagles sent Kolb to the highest bidder.

Kolb is a bit of an unproven commodity, but he’s an upgrade for the Seahawks and likely locks down the QB position for years to come.  He actually reminds us of Matt Hasselbeck in a lot of ways.  Not among the very elite passers but a more than competent game manager who can take a good squad a long way.  He has great upside, but based on his seven starts over his four year career Kolb doesn’t strike us as a guy who is going to reach the upper echelon with the likes of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN: I’m am higher on Kevin Kolb that many of my colleagues.  As a Cardinal, Kolb would have been a low end fantasy QB No. 1 in my opinion.  Last year’s offensive statistics were abysmal for the Cardinals, but there were a lot of contributing factors.  Aside from awful QB play, the running backs and wide receivers just couldn’t stay healthy and the offense never seemed to get into rhythm. 

Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and a good supporting cast of receivers along with what should be an improved, healthy group of rushers I see Kolb producing well enough to be right around No. 11 or No. 12 on my QB list.  Those spots are currently occupied by Joe Flacco and Josh Freeman on my rankings. Neither of them have proven that they are elite.  Each of those signal callers threw for 25 TDs but neither came close to 4,000 yards.  Both have good upside, but so would Kolb in Arizona.

Kolb as a Seahawk is another story.  They simply lack the supporting cast and a dominant wide receiver to be Kolb’s battery mate—to borrow a baseball term (the first and last time you will ever see me do that).  The presence of Kolb boosts Marshawn Lynch a couple spots because a QB who make a defense pay for cheating toward the run always helps a rusher.  Mike Williams and his fellow wide outs should also be bumped up a few spots.  None of them become stars and neither does Kolb.  The Pacific Northwest is simply not as bright and sunny for Kevin Kolb and his fantasy fortunes as Arizona would be.

Fantasy Football Chain Reaction No. 3: Matt Hasselbeck to the Tennessee Titans

Jim Day of GoAheadSports.com weighs in with the first of the big name veteran quarterbacks to find a new home. There continues to be a great deal of speculation about where veterans like Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer and even Marc Bulger will go to perhaps finish their careers.  Teams with rookie signal callers top the list of likely landing spots and Tennessee fits that bill.  

Kerry Collins is calling it quits. The team drafted Jake Locker in April, so they will still be in the market for an older, established QB who can take the reins until Locker is ready.

Step up Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is well known by the Tennessee front office, as GM Mike Reinfeldt, VP of player Personnel Ruston Webster and Director of Pro Scouting Lake Dawson have all spent time in the Seahawks organization.

Hasselbeck didn't have a great season in 2010, but he did start 14 games and really turned it on in the playoffs. In their two playoff games, he completed 45 passes for 530 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. He also had a 102.4 QB rating in those two games.

He is a high character player with an excellent work ethic, and will provide Locker with an excellent mentor.

Fantasy Football Spin: Hasselbeck may fall into borderline bottom QB2 range, but more likely he will end as a QB3 and is only worthy of a roster spot in deeper or start-2 QB leagues.

Fantasy Football Chain Reaction No. 4: Donovan McNabb to the Minnesota Vikings

Next up, Rick Perkins of FantasyFootballTrader.com.  It's worth pointing out that Rick knows his stuff as FantasyFootballTrader.com won the 2010 Fantasy Football Crystal Ball accuracy challenge and holds the title as the most accurate fantasy football expert when it comes to weekly rankings and projections.  You can see the report here.  Also register to get the 2011 Aggregate Rankings Report, ADP Report and five questions answered by the 30 experts who participate in the accuracy challenge  at FantasyFootballCrystalBall.com, which is going to be a free product in 2011 considering the lockout confusion.  

Here is what Rick has to say about Donovan McNabb's fantasy prospects in 2011:

Once the QB dominoes begin falling, they’ll fall quickly.  Rookie QB Christian Ponder has been lobbying heavily for a shot at starting this season, but it will fall on deaf ears.  Ponder is swimming upstream against a strong current of several factors:

*The NFL lockout leaves him even less prepared than the run-of-the-mill starting rookie QB.

*The Vikings had a good deal of success with their last plug ‘n play veteran acquisition at the position (Favre).

*There will be no shortage of options post-lockout of veteran signal callers looking for a home.

McNabb fits the mold perfectly for what Minnesota is looking to acquire.  He’s a 13-year veteran who, the Vikings can rest assured, will get up to speed quickly.  McNabb’s PR took a bit of a hit late last year and into the offseason.  In the past, he’s responded very well to public criticism on the field.  At 34 years old he bridges the gap beautifully for the pre-Ponder era and Minny won‘t have to break the bank.  

Fantasy Football Spin:  Donovan McNabb had precious few weapons to work with in Washington and he was a convenient scapegoat.  The supporting cast in Minnesota more closely resembles the talent he enjoyed for over a decade in Philadelphia.  

Look for mixed results early in the season as the Vikings feature a heavy dose of RB Adrian Peterson and a scaled down passing scheme with plenty of short timing routes.  Assuming WR Sidney Rice is retained, McNabb will be working with a set of receivers as talented as any in the league.  A few “what ifs” need to fall into place, but I can say with a straight face that McNabb could tickle the top 10 fantasy QBs if all goes according to plan.  

On draft day, he’s everything you’re looking for in a backup QB if your strategy is to stockpile RB, WR and a top-five TE early. 

Fantasy Football Chain Reaction No. 5: Kyle Orton to the Arizona Cardinals

The veteran QBs are going fast!  John Paulsen of FantasyShrink.com thinks that Tim Tebow will get some breathing room and Larry Fitzgerald will get his wish of better quarterback play.

After striking out on Kevin Kolb (and possibly Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb as well), the Cardinals need to make a bold move to trade for a capable quarterback so as not to repeat the Derek Anderson/John Skelton/Max Hall debacle of 2010. They acquire Orton for a second-round pick and, once he arrives in Phoenix, Larry Fitzgerald meets him at baggage claim and gives him a long man-hug. Too long, really. But Fitzy doesn’t care.

Orton isn’t going to set the world on fire but, if the Cardinals can protect him in the pocket, he should produce. The Cards allowed the second-most sacks in 2010, but were sixth-best in that category in Kurt Warner’s final year, so having QB stability should really help the Arizona O-line in pass protection.

Fantasy Football Spin: Orton’s arrival isn’t going to turn the Cardinals into an offensive juggernaut, but he will put up good numbers, especially when Arizona inevitably falls behind on the scoreboard. In other words, Orton will be the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the NFC. In Arizona, he’ll be a high end QB2 and a guy to target in the middle rounds when fantasy owners are building their QBBC.

His arrival will likely push Fitzgerald back into the upper echelon of WRs and will give a boost to Steve Breaston (if he returns), along with sleepers like Andre Roberts, Early Doucet and Stephen Williams. Whoever the starting RB is will have a puncher’s chance to put up some numbers since opposing defenses will have to respect Orton’s arm. An Orton trade would be a big win for the entire Arizona offense.

More to Come from Fantasy Football Chain Reaction Series

That wraps up the first five, but there are 20 more to go.  You can follow us on Bleacher Report to keep up or click here to see the series progress.  

In the next five player movement predictions you get some big name receivers changing uniforms and a back up running back gets his shot at being a fantasy football producer.