Could Free-Agent-To-Be Ryan Dempster Be The Next Carl Pavano?

December 20, 2004 the New York Yankees signed coveted right-handed free agent pitcher Carl Pavano. Pavano, was just coming off an 18-8 season with exactly a career best 3.00 ERA in a career-best 222 innings pitched for the Florida Marlins.

It looked like a perfect match up. A perennial playoff contender hoping to splurge (as always) and add that one missing piece that had alluded them since there last World Series appearance one whole year ago.....

The Yankees greedily signed Pavano out of luxury to a 4 year $40 million dollar deal and the rest is history. Never mind the fact that Pavano had a career ERA of 4.64 at the conclusion of that season, or the fact that his previous career high for wins in a season was just twelve that he achieved in 2003 one year before that previous outlier season of 2004, or that he only made the playoffs once, ironically in 2003 when the Marlins met (and beat) the Yankees in the World Series).

Pay no attention to the fact that even including that magical 2004 season, Pavano only averaged 119 innings pitched per season and his ERA was all over the map with some seasons going as high as 6.30 and as low as 3.06. Finally he averaged just 19 starts per season prior to cashing in on that big deal in the winter of the Yankees discontent.

As we all know, Pavano went on the become one of the  biggest busts in free agent history even to the Yankees who can afford a financial gaffe or two (see Igawa, Kei, or Irabu, Hideki) this made them look bad.

Pavano started only 26 games in parts of three seasons with the Yankees during that four year span (he missed all of 2006) and never posted an ERA below 4.77 or pitched more than 100 innings in any of his three forgettable seasons in The Bronx. He is now 32 and perhaps washed up (at least until some lowly team like the cheap A's take a flier on him and maybe work on his mechanics).

Why is this important? Because there is a 31 year old right handed free agent pitcher with ten years experience who is about to cash in via some sucker, uh, suitor, in 2008. His name is Ryan Dempster and he too is coming off a career best year that saw him go a career-best 17-6 with a career best 2.96 ERA.

Sound familiar? It should.

Dempster has a few things going for him. One he is a year younger, two he has pitched in over 400 innings more than Pavano (1425 to 1083). He also has more career wins (76 to 66) 87 saves which demonstrates his unique ability to perform multiple roles as well as have stamina, and his ERA while a big higher at 4.55 is more consistent than Pavano's outlier years.

The fact he has pitched more innings can be seen however as a potential bad omen since he's bound to have more wear and tear on elbows and joints. Additionally he could have the Brad Lidge factor where it was believed that he (Lidge) was bound to blow a save in the post season despite going perfect 41/41 during the regular season and had been perfect in the playoffs leading up the the World Series.

Lidge went on the appropriately close the deciding game of the World Series and complete his 2008 season 48/48 in saves.

Lidge also wasn't playing for a contract, having just recently signed a 3 year $37 million mid summer extension with Philadelphia this season. Dempster, however was. Like Pavano who went from the Expos to the Marlins, before signing with the Yankees, Dempster has seen his share of time in places like Florida, and Cincinnati before finding a niche with Chicago. 

Similar to Pavano in his previous stops, Dempster has shown flashes of promise but ultimately has tilted more to the likes of an average, serviceable pitcher that he is, not the premier top-of-the-rotation starter that he is about to be handsomely paid like.

If I'm a baseball general manager, here is one guy I stay away from. He has all the makings of another Carl Pavano.