MLB Fantasy Baseball: Why Cincinnati Reds' Jay Bruce Is a Must Have

Jay Bruce has without a doubt been one heck of a puzzle for the majority of his young MLB career.

From a fantasy baseball standpoint, expectations of him weren't as high coming into the 2011 season. Players tend to peak by their second or third season, and by then you usually know what you're going to get with them.

Bruce's career through 2010 hasn't been too bad, but it's nothing great. He provides superb fielding in the outfield with his cannon for an arm. His offense is streaky but somewhat above-average.

There's nothing wrong with a solid right fielder. But Reds fans trusted him to be the savior of the subpar-of-late squad, and Bruce just hasn't live up to these expectations.

Remember when Bruce broke his wrist in 2009? He was clearly struggling at the plate after returning from the injury. But after a year had passed in late 2010, the ball began to explode off his bat. He hit 15 home runs in the months of August and September and looked like the Jay Bruce everyone was expecting from the start.

The injury had been so long ago in the past by that time that people forgot he’d been recovering for a huge chunk of the season. Therefore, this was labeled more of a hot streak instead of being his regular day-to-day performance.

Now we're in mid-season form of 2011. Here is Bruce by the numbers so far, and why he should or should not be in your fantasy baseball lineup.

Monthly Averages at the Plate

It's obvious that Jay Bruce is a streaky hitter.

And almost predictable. It seems as though he has a routine each season—starting off well, then struggling and then ending with a bang.

Here is a breakdown of his three-plus year career at the plate:

Bruce usually begins the season pretty well. Not amazing statistics, but productive. For the months of March through May, he is 161 for 586 (.275 BA) with 38 home runs and 82 RBI. Good stuff here—the "average" Bruce, if you will.

Then he just falls off the face of the Earth.

During the months of June and July, he completely disappears. He's got 134 hits in 581 at-bats (.231) with 14 homers and 52 RBI during those months, while striking out 149 times (26 percent of his plate appearances). These are times where Bruce probably stays out at the bar an extra hour longer than everyone else.

Somehow he magically turns on for the long haul.

I don't know if clutch is the right word to use in this situation, but he certainly was in 2010. Bruce explodes in the final few months of the season (August through October). So far, he's 106 of 371 (.286) with 33 bombs, 74 RBI and has been walked 44 times.

Realize that during this stretch, Bruce has hit a home run in nine percent of his at bats (Albert Pujols is at eight percent over the past three years). He has a 20 percent chance of knocking in an RBI, and his on base percentage is .379.

When he's on he's on; and when he's off he's off.

But when he's on, he's really on.

When Should I Start Him?

When should you start Jay Bruce?

There are appropriate and specific opportunities to start the big lug, and there are times to keep him on the bench. To be honest, they're pretty distinct.

Start him at home. Bruce has a career .287 batting average at Great American Ball Park with 54 dingers and 123 RBI. This opposes his .234 BA, 31 homers and 99 RBI while on the road.

He's better against right-handers—Bruce, a lefty himself, hits right-handed pitchers at a significantly higher rate than he does against lefties. He is a career 290-for-1,077 (.269) to counter his .241 BA against lefties.

Play him when the Reds are facing NL Central opponents. Other than St. Louis, Bruce is hitting at least .280 (.317 against Milwaukee) and has hit 47 of his 85 home runs against divisional teams. He struggles against the Cardinals, so we can substitute in Atlanta whom he thrives in head-to-head (.323).

Play 'em or Bench 'em?

Unfortunately, he's a streaky hitter. His infamous inconsistency is unattractive to fantasy baseball owners.

But for those who have him, remain strong. It seems as if Bruce is beginning to dig that hole he likes to hide in for the months of June and July. If that's the case, bench him for now, if you have someone better.

However, don't toss him to the side.

Bruce's numbers are higher than usual at this point. Right now he's batting .280 with an OBP of .350—he's usually at .260 and .310, so improvement is evident.

Who knows, maybe he'll break out of his summer curse and end up becoming the consistent batter that he's expected to be.

All I know is that this guy will for sure be in my fantasy baseball lineup when August comes around.