US Open Golf 2011: Who Will Contend, Surprise, and Win

The 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional Country Club will not feature Tiger Woods, but that doesn't mean there will not be a lot of great golf going on in Washington D.C.  

The field at this week’s U.S. Open is as wide open as it has been in years. I could see almost anyone winning, but I’ll just walk you through some of my contenders, a dark-horse pick, and who I think will be hoisting the trophy this Sunday.

Contenders

Phil Mickelson

Lefty has finished in the top 10 at nine U.S. Opens and has been runner-up five times. He has four top 10’s already this year and hits the ball long, which will be an advantage for him this week due to the length of Congressional.

Look for Lefty to be on the front page of the leaderboard for much of the week. 

Lee Westwood

The big European has five top-three finishes in majors since 2008 and tied for 11th earlier this year at The Masters.

Westwood has played well in U.S. Opens recently, too—he took third in 2008 and tied for 16th at last year's U.S. Open. Westwood also finished tied for 5th in the 2000 U.S. Open, which proves some level of consistency.

Look for Westwood to contend down the stretch, but I don’t think he is clutch enough to close it out. He struggled to claim the number-one spot in the World Golf Rankings despite numerous opportunities this year, most memorably choking away a playoff hole to Luke Donald. 

Matt Kuchar

The Georgia Tech alum boasts only three wins on the PGA Tour, but he has fared well in majors as of late. Kuchar finished tied for sixth at last year’s U.S. Open and finished tied for 10th at the 2010 PGA Championship.

Kuchar has had a great year so far in 2011 with eight top-10 finishes.

Look for him to remain hot this weekend, but I don’t see him being clutch enough to take home the title. 

Dustin Johnson

Talk about a guy who has found out two horrible ways to lose a major.

Johnson led by three shots going into the final round of last year’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, but imploded on Sunday, carding an 82.

At the 2010 PGA Championship, Johnson led by one going into the final hole, made bogey, and was set to go to a three-way playoff with Martin Kaymer and Bubba Watson. However, officials went back to look at Johnson’s 18th hole and ruled that he had grounded his club in what was deemed a bunker. The area did not appear to be an actual bunker, but nonetheless Johnson was assessed a two-stroke penalty and finished tied for fifth. 

Johnson is fourth in driving distance (307.1 yards) and 13th in greens-in-regulation percentage (68.92), a formula for success at the U.S. Open.

Johnson should finish in the top 10, but I can’t see him winning it this year. 

Dark Horse, Bubba Watson

Bubba Watson came close to securing his first-ever major victory at the 2010 PGA Championship, but lost in a playoff hole to Martin Kaymer.

Watson hits it long (310.8 yards)—which will be an advantage for him this week at Congressional—leads the PGA in greens-in-regulation percentage (73.83), and has performed well in past U.S. Opens.

He finished tied for fifth at the U.S. Open in 2007 and tied for 18th in 2009. Watson is a proven winner on tour and has a great chance to win it all at this weekend. 

Winner, Luke Donald

The new world number-one is having arguably the best year of his career on the PGA Tour.

He is tied for first  in top-10 finishes with eight, tied for 12th in driving accuracy at 68.10 percent, and is sixth in both scrambling and putting.

Donald had a great showing at The Masters (T-4th) and won the WGC Accenture Match Play Tournament earlier this year.

A lot of the experts are citing Donald’s short yardage off the tee as the main reason he won’t win this weekend, but at the U.S. Open you have to hit fairways, putt well, and make some big up-and-down pars to win. Donald is close to the top of the PGA in all of these categories, which is why I see his dream year continuing with a victory this weekend in the nation's capital.