College Football 2011 Predictions: Power Ranking the Pac-12
2010 was an unusual season for the now-Pac-12 conference. They sent a representative to the BCS National Championship Game, and it wasn't USC!
The rise of nontraditional teams like Oregon and Stanford brought new attention to the conference. It was a nice rebound after all the negative publicity the Trojans had provided for the previous two seasons. The future looks bright, especially after the recent TV deal they signed with ESPN and FOX for the next 15 years.
There is plenty to look forward to heading into 2011. Both superstars of the conference, LaMichael James and Andrew Luck, are back to battle it out to see who will receive the Rose Bowl berth, or possibly more. Behind Oregon and Stanford are a number of quality teams looking to spring an upset or two and reach the first ever Pac-12 Championship Game.
Here are my first Pac-12 power rankings heading into the 2011 College Football season.
12. Washington State Cougars
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Boy, has it been hard to be a Washington State fan since 2003.
Fortunately for the Cougars, they have a solid QB in Jeff Tuel, who should be able to lead the team to a few upset victories in 2011. He completed about 60 percent of his passes for 18 TDs and 12 INTs last year as a sophomore. He has the prototypical size and arm strength that could help him get looks at the next level, but he will have to show that he can win games for Washington State first.
The return a lot of starters (if that's a good thing) should make them at least competitive in conference play.
Any victories would be appreciated by the Pullman faithful, as they have only won five over the past three seasons.
They remain in the conference basement for the foreseeable future.
11. UCLA Bruins
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Rick Neuheisel will get the majority of the attention from Bruins fans heading into the season, because expectations are high. Sandwiched in between two four-win seasons is an EagleBank bowl victory, and it doesn't seem like much progress has been made in Los Angeles. I can't believe this is the same coach that brought Colorado and Washington to national prominence.
After landing a top-10 high school class in 2010 and ranking 14th in 2009 (according to Rivals.com), it's time that these players make an impact on the starting lineup. Now that Neuheisel has the athletes at his disposal, he has to make the Bruins viable in the new Pac-12.
A lot of pressure will be on running back Jonathan Franklin to carry the offensive load, because the Bruins have little else on offense to put a scare into opponents. Most of the defense is back, aside from NFL draftees Rahim Moore and Akeem Ayers, but I just do not believe in this UCLA team.
This season could be the lowest point in school history, and I wouldn't be surprised if Neuheisel was out of a job at the end of 2011. Can Bob Toledo please come back?!
10. Colorado Buffaloes
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Talk about going from the frying pan right into the fire.
The Buffaloes have been the whipping boys of the Big-12 for the past five years. To say that the Dan Hawkins era has been a disappointment is a strong understatement. Now, they enter a conference almost as deep and strong, and have to make recruiting inroads on unfamiliar territory. They face a major uphill battle for the next five years to return to prominence.
Enter Jon Embree. He is a little known assistant coach with both NFL and college experience (including at Colorado many moons ago), whose anonymity would be the best thing the Buffaloes backroom staff would want from their football coach at this point.
Embree could be in over his head, but only time will tell. Aside from Rodney Stewart, Colorado has little in talent on either side of the ball. Recruiting will be the most important game the Buffaloes play in the new two seasons.
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9. Washington Huskies
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See ya later Jake Locker! Hello, Keith Price?
While Locker didn't have the senior year he envisioned, he virtually carried the Huskies to a winning record and a bowl victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Not bad for a program that went 0-12 in 2008.
The post-Locker period may not be as nice, however. Losing a franchise quarterback is going to hurt you, no matter how strong your school is. Considering the Huskies do not fall under "the strong anything," I'd be surprised if this group won as many games in 2011.
Steve Sarkisian is a hot young stock that will probably be looked at by big-named schools in the near future, but even he can't make up for the lack of talent the Huskies have (aside from do-everything back Chris Polk). I'm tempted to say Washington will make some noise in the Pac-12 North, but I just cannot wrap my mind around that possibility.
8. Cal Bears
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At what point is Jeff Tedford put on the hot seat?
After posting 10 wins in 2006, the Bears have posted a very pedestrian 29-22 record. Given the low standards Cal has towards their football team, I understand why that is acceptable.
Realizing this, Tedford plans on having a much more hands-on approach to the offense, which includes calling the plays and attending all QB meetings. Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard will be the object of Tedford's affection, for now at least, but after his mediocre season in 2009, it's hard to imagine him hanging onto the job for the whole season.
Quaterback issues are the main reason why Cal has struggled over the past few years and will probably be the reason this continues in 2011. The Bears have put talented athletes in other positions into the NFL, but without a viable quarterback it is nearly impossible to compete for conference championships.
Look for the Bears to finish in the middle of the pack, just enough to keep Tedford in town for another season.
7. Utah Utes
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The conference's other newcomer, the Utah Utes, are somewhat of a wild card. They have finally made the big-money jump into a major conference, which should pay dividends in the long run for the entire university.
The original BCS busters sure know how to win football games, and this experience could lead to success in the Pac-12. On the other side of the coin, they are used to only having to get up for one or two major challenges during the regular season. In the big-boy conferences you have to be ready every week, even against the so called weaklings.
On the field, it may be a more difficult transition than people realize. The conference is loaded with offensive talent who should be able to put up points against a weak Utes defense.They were blown out by TCU and BYU a year ago, and if they don't improve, a repeat of those games could happen against the majority of the Pac-12.
A middle of the conference finish with a few big victories would be an excellent first season for the Utes.
6. Oregon State Beavers
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The Beavers finished 5-7 in 2010, which may come as a surprise to most. They played so many close games against talented teams and probably deserved a better record. Although this scheduling likely cost them a bowl game, playing against the likes of TCU, Boise State, Oregon and Stanford can only help the program as they move forward.
QB Ryan Katz was thrown into the fire a year ago as a freshman and should be a much better quarterback in 2011 with that experience. Because of the lack of talent around him (both Rodgers are gone, Jaquizz to the NFL and James is not a guarantee to return from injury), it's hard to imagine the Beavers making noise in a deep Pac-12.
Given Mike Riley's ability as a coach, I wouldn't be surprised if the Beavers had a winning record in the conference this year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they fell off a cliff and finished near the bottom of the Pac-12.
5. Arizona Wildcats
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Some argue that having excellent skill position players is the difference between success and failure, while others believe winning the battle in the trenches is far more important. We may know the answer to that question after watching the 2011 Arizona Wildcats.
On the positive side of things, Arizona returns all of its major playmakers including QB Nick Foles and talented wideout Juron Criner. Foles completed 67 percent of his passes in 2010, and the former Michigan State transfer looks ready to have a magnificent senior year.
Now for the bad news. The Wildcats have no returning starters on either line. Yea, seriously.
A slew of redshirt and true freshman will be manning the big-boy spots this season with absolutely no experience. While this will certainly pay off down the road if they can all stay healthy, this team will see some major growing pains throughout the season. From a neutral's standpoint, this should be interesting to watch.
Another team that should finish in the middle of the pack, Mike Stoops has a big task at hand in 2011 with his Arizona Wildcats.
4. USC Trojans
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Talk about a sleeping giant.
Despite the heavy penalty handed down on the USC Trojans in June 2010, which includes ineligibility from this season's conference title game, I expect a major rebound from last years 8-5 regular season record. Lane Kiffin has his hands tied in certain aspects when it comes to managing his football team. It will probably take a few seasons before USC is back atop the conference. But it is a matter of when, not if.
As far as 2011 goes, the Trojans have some positive things in place. Matt Barkley is a stud and has plenty of weapons at his disposal. He could challenge Andrew Luck for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft should he have another big season. Robert Woods could be one of the most dynamic players in the country when you combine his receiving skills with his returning ability.
An early season date at Arizona State could go a long way in determining who "wins" the Pac-12 South. Regardless, the Trojans will be sitting on their couches during bowl season. It won't be because of their record, however. Expect nine wins and another step in the right direction for the program.
3. Arizona State
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My darkhorse, folks.
I know it's difficult to count on Dennis Erickson delivering the goods (at least this decade), but the Arizona State Sun Devils have a lot of pieces in place that suggest winning is around the corner. Erickson better get the job done this year, or he may need to file for unemployment in 2012.
For the Sun Devils to get where they want to go, they will be led by their defense that returns a number of starters, not the least of which is the best linebacker in the country Vontaze Burfict. He is a freak of nature that can single-handedly take a game over at the flip of a switch.
Losing QB Stephen Threet will be a major hole to fill because of how well he played a year ago before getting hurt. Brock Osweiler had ups and downs in his limited action, but a full offseason should benefit the junior.
I really like this team and expect them to win the first edition of the Pac-12 South.
2. Stanford Cardinal
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A Heisman and a National Championship.
The two things that define college football as a sport are the exact two reasons why Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck returned to school for his senior season. After an up-and-down season capped off by a blowout victory over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl, the Cardinal were in dreamland.
Then came reality. Head coach Jim Harbaugh bolted to the NFL and Luck lost a lot of his offensive line and most of his playmakers. While Luck should be able to keep the program afloat for one more season, a lot of holes need to be filled for the Cardinal to repeat their impressive 11-1 record from a year ago.
The Stanford-Oregon showdown will likely determine who wins the Pac-12 North, but even with Luck I can't see the Cardinal breaking through to the promised land. That said, Luck has to be the favorite for the Heisman heading into the 2011 season. Expect Stanford to finish 10-2 and possibly head to another BCS game.
1. Oregon Ducks
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Mike Belotti deserves a lot of credit for the back-to-back Pac-10 Championships (they are his players, after all), but all the attention is on current Oregon Ducks head coach Chip Kelly.
Kelly has revolutionized college football with his offense that runs a play every .2 seconds and piles on yards at a historic rate. A 22-4 record in two seasons has Ducks fans clamoring for even more, and a return to the BCS National Championship game is their expectation.
We all know the story by now. The Ducks run, run, run with the trio of Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. There will be no more Jeff Maehl to make the tough, clutch catches on third down, but the Ducks are more than capable offensively to lead the nation in most statistical categories.
Defensively, Oregon is missing some pieces, but as long as Cliff Harris can halt his F1 time trials and stay on the field, he and Terrell Turner should lead the unit to a respectable season. That's all they need to do.
This should be enough to carry the Ducks to an undefeated record and a third straight conference championship. Events elsewhere will likely determine which BCS game the Ducks will be traveling to, but back-to-back undefeated regular seasons would be an amazing accomplishment for this program.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
