Minnesota Vikings: 5 Reasons 2011 Will Be No Better Than 2010

Leslie Frazier's head coaching career with the Minnesota Vikings has not been smooth sailing. It's never easy to take over in the middle of a season for an embattled coach. Often fired because the performance of the team has been far less than anticipated by the owners and fans, Frazier faces a difficult situation in replacing Brad Childress.

It always amazes me how quickly the situation can change for a coach in professional sports.

In 2009, Childress guided the Vikings to a 12-4 season with the second highest scoring offense in the NFL and a defense that finished in the top 10. One season later, he opened the 2010 season winning only three of 10 games.

The 31-3 loss to the Packers, Minnesota's most bitter rival, was more than enough to justify his firing. 

When Frazier took over, the team promptly won two games, lifting everyone's spirits that perhaps the first 10 games were an aberration, and there was still hope for another playoff appearance. 

The reality of the situation is the Vikings were as bad as their record and only defeated a couple of teams that finished last in their respective divisions in Washington and Buffalo.

The season would end in disarray with not only the collapse of performance on the field, but with the roof over the field, sending the Vikings to play home games in Detroit and at TCF Bank Stadium—both resulting in lopsided losses.

The Vikings would end the season losing to the Lions—dropping them to last place in NFC North.

While hope springs eternal, the dawning of a new season has brought with it just as many obstacles for Frazier and his staff to navigate.

The current NFL lockout could not have come at a worse time for Frazier as he tries to rebuild an aging roster, quickly turnaround the fortunes of the Vikings and return a team that was one 14-men in the huddle penalty away from a trip to the Super Bowl.

With little more to do than scheme, the results of Frazier's near future do not look all that promising.

Here are five reasons the 2011 season will not be all that great. 

It Takes Time for a New Coach to Be Successful

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For many coaches, it takes a few years to make their mark on the team, its roster and the results in the win column.

Even for Bud Grant, the winningest coach in Minnesota history, the start was not that spectacular. While he led the Vikings to four Super Bowl appearances, his first year he took a 4-9-1 team in 1967 and produced a 3-8-3 team. It took Grant two seasons to get the Vikings to their first playoff appearance and three to make it to the Super Bowl.

For Les Steckel, the worst coach in Vikings history, his debut was disastrous.

Grant retired following the 1983 season after the Vikings failed to make the playoffs in three of the past five seasons. At the time, many fans thought the game had passed Grant by, and his stoic, no nonsense approach did not work with a new age of players that liked to spike the ball after scoring and celebrate after making routine plays .  

Steckel took over an 8-8 team and promptly went 3-13, matching the fewest wins since 1967. At the end of the season, he would be fired and replaced by Grant, who would come back to coach one more season.

After a single season, long time offensive coordinator Jerry Burns would take over for Grant. In his first year, he would take a 7-9 team from 1985 and lead them to a two-game turnaround and a 9-7 finish to the 1986 season.  

The one successful exception in Vikings history would be when Dennis Green would succeed Burns. Following an 8-8 season in 1991, Green would lead the Vikings to an 11-5 record and be the first coach in team history to make the playoffs in his first season.

After 10 years, Mike Tice replaced Green during the 2001 season, and the Vikings would go from 5-11 in 2001 to 6-10 in 2002.

After four plus seasons, Brad Childress replaced Tice in 2006. Childress would produce a three-game drop in his first season, taking a 9-7 team in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006. While he showed improvement each year, it would take him three seasons before making the playoffs.

The prospects of Leslie Frazier improving on a 6-10 record from 2010 do not look promising.

If there is a full 16-game schedule, the prospects are for five to seven wins in 2011 and potentially another last place finish in the NFC North.

The Jump from College to the NFL Is a Big One for a Quarterback

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TALLAHASSEE, FL - SEPTEMBER 07: Defenders Olivier Vernon #35, Colin McCarthy #44 and Darryl Sharpton #50 of the Miami Hurricanes bring down quarterback Christian Ponder #7 of the Florida State Seminoles during a goal line stand in the fourth quarter at D

The fortunes of a rookie quarterback in the NFL are not one ending in a trip to the Super Bowl.

There have been 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2001. On average, they win three games and lose four, throwing seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

Of the 28 quarterbacks, there have been 11 who have made at least 10 starts in their rookie season. Combined they have a record of 76-75 with 148 touchdowns and 161 interceptions, resulting in a 72.7 quarterback rating.

Only four of these 11 quarterbacks made the playoffs in their rookie season: Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, and Mark Sanchez in 2009.

Perhaps the combination of Ponder and Leslie Frazier can replicate the success that Ryan had with Mike Smith in Atlanta or that Flacco had with John Harbaugh. In their first year together at their respective teams, Ryan and Smith turned a 4-12 Falcons team into an 11-5 playoff team, while Flacco and Harbaugh reversed a 5-11 team to an 11-5 record, making the playoffs as well. However, I just don't see that happening.

When the Vikings used the 12th pick to select Christian Ponder, he was the fourth quarterback taken in the first round.

Twice since 2001 there have been four quarterbacks drafted in the first round: J.P. Losman by Buffalo in 2004 and Rex Grossman by the Bears in 2003. Losman only started 33 games over six seasons going 10-23. Grossman had slightly better success starting 34 games over eight years with a 20-14 record.

Here's hoping Ponder can produce better than either of these fourth-selected quarterbacks in the first round.

There Are Too Many Holes to Fill

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 28: Sidney Rice #18 of the Minnesota Vikings in action against Asante Samuel #22 of the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 28, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Leslie Frazier and his coaching staff must feel like the crew of road workers following the dump truck full of asphalt attempting to fill the potholes. Sometimes the only solution left is to bulldoze the road and start over.

For the Minnesota Vikings, the 2011 season presents plenty of opportunities. On the offensive side of the ball, the team has needs at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, they need to reinforce the defensive line, linebackers and cornerback.

Add the fact that Ryan Longwell is a free agent, and the Vikings may need to find another field-goal kicker.

While they have made inroads addressing some of these needs in the draft, until the lock out is resolved the team is idling in neutral, unable to address bolstering the roster through trades or free agency.    

As the Lockout Continues, Frazier's Time to Prepare Diminishes

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LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 28: Minnesota Vikings Interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier talks to referees from the sideline while playing the Washington Redskins at FedExField November 28, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. The Vikings won the game 17-13. (Photo by Wi

Leslie Frazier and his staff are at a disadvantage. Like seven other teams with new coaching staffs for 2011, there's nothing they can do to implement their new system into the team.

The lockout has wiped out any OTA's or mini camps, and the coaches are barred from having any contact with the players.

As the lock continues, there is a likely chance that the preseason will be truncated, as the regular season could be shortened to as few as eight games. For a team potentially with a rookie quarterback at the helm, this does not bode well.

Based on the average performance of a rookie quarterback cited a few slides ago, the best the Vikings could hope for would be a 3-5 record.

As the Vikings Slide, the Rest of the NFC North Is Surging

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DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 02: Maurice Morris #28 of the Detroit Lions gets in for a fouth quarter touchdown in front of Jamarca Sanford #33 of the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field on January 2, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 20-13. (Photo by

In 2010, the NFC North boasted two playoff teams and the Super Bowl Champions.

While the Vikings were in a free fall to the basement of the division, the other three teams where on the rise.

The Bears won the division with an 11-5 record and the fourth best scoring defense in the NFL. Jay Cutler, in his second season with the Bears, had his best touchdown to interception ratio since his rookie season in 2006 when he only started five games with the Broncos. Last season, he threw 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions for a 1.44 ratio.  

Green Bay turned a wild-card berth into their fourth Super Bowl title. The Packers ended with the second best scoring defense in the league. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers look like they could dominate for years.

The lowly Lions won as many games as the Vikings in 2010 and more than their two previous seasons combined. Averaging only 3.6 victories since their last winning season in 2000, the Lions have a promising quarterback in Matt Stafford. Add an improving defense with a solid defensive line, and the Vikings could have some problems avoiding another last place finish in 2011.