2011 Belmont Stakes: How Does This Field Rank Against Last Year's

At first glance, when comparing this year’s Belmont Stakes field against last year’s field, we have to say it looks obvious that 2011's field is better than 2010's.

But looks can be deceiving. So in order to make a proper assessment, we need to look at things like the amount of starters and the favorites and then go through the field comparing all horses.

The amount of starters is the same at 12. Generally when there are as many starters, there is an indication that there is no clear-cut favorite. For that reason it looks like an open race, therefore it's anybody’s race, which seems to be a general thought these past two years.

In both editions, the odds-on favorite is not a lock-down bet. Last year the favorite closed at 3-1, and this year the favorite is currently at 2-1 odds, and is expected to finish at either 5-2 or 3-1. Once again, they are very similar.

From here on is where this year’s field starts separating itself from last year’s. Last year we had no horses starting in the Belmont that ran on all three races of the Triple Crown. This year we have three: Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man.

The fact that a horse is able to run, and be competitive in all three races of the Triple Crown is a feat by itself. To have the winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness have a rematch at the Belmont alone makes for a stronger field than last year.

Last year Super Saver, winner of the Derby, and Looking At Lucky, winner of the Preakness and three-year-old champion, didn’t run in the Belmont. Advantage goes to this year’s field.

Among the favorites, Ice Box was last year’s Belmont favorite. He won the Grade I Florida Derby, arrived in second at the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness.

Animal Kingdom, this year’s Belmont favorite, won the Grade III Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes, the Kentucky Derby and finished second in the Preakness. The advantage here goes clearly to this year’s field.

Moving on to the second-through-fifth choices, last year they were First Dude, Fly Down, Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude. This year currently we have Shackleford, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Master Of Hounds.

To be fair, it's best to compare them, in the same timeline as this year’s field is in. That means that I cannot consider what last year’s choices have done after the Belmont because it would be subjective to what this year’s choices could do.

Here is where you could make a real argument in favor of or against the group from this year or last year. Let’s analyze the second betting choices, First Dude and Shackleford.

First Dude placed second in the Preakness and before that, third in the Blue Grass, and fifth in the Florida Derby. Meanwhile, Shackleford won the Preakness, was fourth in the Derby and second in the Florida Derby.

The advantage has to go to Shackleford. He did win the Preakness, and in the Florida Derby he was beaten at the wire; while First Dude was a no-contending fifth in his Florida Derby.

In the other three from last year’s group we had Fly Down and Drosselmeyer who prior to the Belmont finished first and second in the Grade II Dwyer and Game On Dude had won the Grade III Lone Star Derby.

From that same group from this year, Nehro and Master of Hounds were second and fifth in the Derby, and skipped the Preakness. While Mucho Macho Man was third in the Derby and sixth in the Preakness.

Here you could swing your vote if you just consider each group’s last race before the Belmont. It will all depend on how much weight you give the Derby and Preakness versus the Dwyer and Lone Star. Logic dictates that the edge should be given to this year’s group.

But some will argue that Drosselmeyer, Fly Down and Game On Dude, were good enough to run in the Derby, just didn’t have the earnings.

But being subjective, they didn’t make the Derby field, and based on this you have to give the advantage to this year’s group, especially when all arrived in the top five in the Derby.

Let's analyze now the standouts from the rest of the field on both editions. From last year’s, Make Music for Me and Staley Victor arrived fourth and eighth in the Derby, while Santiva and Brilliant Speed were sixth and seventh in this year’s Derby, and Stay Thirsty was twelfth.

Here I would have to also give the advantage to this year’s group. First of all because is three over two, and Santiva, Brilliant Speed and Stay Thirsty, all won a prep race for the Derby, while only Staley Victor won his.

Wherever you look at it, whether it’s the expectations of the rematch between the Derby and Preakness winners or the historic return of eight Kentucky Derby starters, including the top seven finishers, all in all this year’s field is better than last year’s.