Belmont Stakes 2011: Ranking Each Horse's Chance to Win

Before the horses even enter the starting gate for Saturday's 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park, two records have already been set.

For the first time in history, the top seven finishers from the Kentucky Derby have returned for the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. In all, eight Derby horses made the trip to New York, also a record.

Hard core handicappers and the casual horse racing fan can be found at betting windows all over the country during the Triple Crown run.

The Belmont is known as the "Test of a Champion" because of the demanding 1 1/2-mile distance.

Horse races such as the Belmont have years of betting trends, race trends and good old fashioned history to fall back on.

Post position, early speed, jockeys, trainers and even pedigree can matter when picking your horse in race of this distance.

To see which horses these trends will affect, their odds of winning and where all 12 horses will finish in order during the 2011 Belmont Stakes, click through and be sure to leave your thoughts. Comments are always welcome.

Will it be Animal Kingdom or one of the three newcomers to the Triple Crown races? What about Shackleford, can he continue to surprise everyone and simply run to victory?

Here are each horse’s chances to win. I have ranked each one exactly as I see them finishing in tomorrow’s Belmont Stakes.

Enjoy the final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown series, and see you next year on the first Saturday in May.

No. 12 Isn't He Perfect: Not Really but Throw Down Two Bucks and See

Rob Carr/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MD - MAY 21: Isn't He Perfect with jockey Ramon Dominguez #12 during the post parade for the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 21, 2011 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Isn’t' He Perfect has been anything but in his racing career. He got his name when his owner, Kharag Stables, said upon seeing him for the first time, “Isn’t he perfect?”

Currently at 45-1, he is the longest shot on the board and long shots have proven their worth to betters wallets at the Belmont Stakes in recent years. Make no mistake, Isn't He Perfect fits the description of a long shot, well, perfectly.

Long shots have hit the board quite frequently inn this race and fare far better than the favorites. Only two post-time favorites have actually won the Belmont Stakes in the last 15 years and six in the last 30 years.

Do not forget that long shots have won the first two legs of this year’s Triple Crown.

Some betters were fortunate to get Animal Kingdom at 21-to-1 in the Kentucky Derby, and Shackleford was as high as 13-to-1 in the Preakness Stakes.

During the past 11 years, three of the six largest payoffs in Triple Crown history were recorded. Sarava rewarded bettors in a big way back in 2002 with the highest return at 70-1.

In addition to Sarava, Birdstone was fifth all time in 04 at 36-1, and Da’ Tara, who ended Big Browns Triple Crown hopes in '08, is fourth at 38-1.

Isn't He Perfect is the most experienced horse in the field with 13 career starts. However, he has won just twice and never factored in major graded stakes race.

If you have $2 to spare, drop it like it's hot on the Doodnauth Shivmangal trained entry. You never know when the next Sarava is bound to win.

No. 11 Ruler on Ice: Would Be Favorite in Boston

Ruler On Ice, 2nd in the Tesio Stakes (the Preakness Prep) and 3rd in the Sunland Derby this year!

Ruler On Ice is considered an upset special by some handicappers. The reason is his pedigree is strong.

From Roman Ruler and Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six, his bloodline has such notable's like 2000 Kentucky Derby hero Fusaichi Pegasus, and the great sire from the 1970s, Mr. Prospector.

Remember, I said that pedigree could be a factor in this race.

At first glance, Ruler On Ice looks to have above average middle distance stamina in his bloodline. However, if you look a little deeper into his past, you will find more than adequate long distance pedigree.

A third generation descendant of the great sire Mr. Prospector, Ruler On Ice looks to become the 13th horse to win the Belmont from Mr. Prospector's family tree.

The one trend that currently hurts Ruler is his post position.

Five of the last six winners have started in gate seven or higher and only two of the last 10 winners have started inside of the seven post. The two that did win inside were both from the No. 4 hole.

His current odd are 20-1 and a $2 bet could get you anywhere from forty to $50.

In the Federico Tesio at Pimlico on May 7, he ran well but finished second.

He was closing from fifth when he ran out of room after the 1 1/16 distance. Therefore, the extra distance may help close out a triple wager, but it is not likely.

No. 10 Prime Cut: Not One of the Cooler Names for a Race Horse

Prime Cut

Since 1991, six horses have skipped the Derby and Preakness and still won the Belmont.

Last year, Drosselmeyer, which skipped both the derby and the Preakness and had never won a stakes race, beat favorite Ice Box at the Belmont.

Prime Cut is one of three entries looking to match the feat of  Drosselmeyer, Da' Tara in '08 and the filly, Rags to Riches in '07.

Can he do it, probably not. He finished second in the Grade 3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes, and in May he took third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which was held at Belmont Park.

In seven career starts, he has won twice, with two seconds and two thirds.

He is a few months behind a very talented field after being held out with pneumonia from June 2010 until December, when he entered his second race.

His pedigree is not very exciting although it does point to a horse that could make noise on the grass later this summer. This field and this distance may be a bit too much for him.

If he can build on his run in the Peter Pan, he could surprise by factoring in the triple. More than likely, he finishes anywhere from 10th to last.

Prime Cut is likely to go off at odds that range from 15-1 to 25-1, and a $2 bet could earn you a cool $50 to $60.

No. 9 Stay Thirsty: No Quenching of the Thirst Expected in the Belmont

Stay Thirsty has home track advantage and is fresh after skipping the Preakness following a 12th place finish at the Derby.

He cut his teeth on the Belmont surface, finishing second in a maiden special weight sprint last July.

The Todd Pletcher trained entry was garnering a lot of looks heading into the Derby prep races but each time the distance got longer, he finished further back.

After winning the Grade 3 Gotham in March at Aqueduct and upsetting everybody's early Derby favorite Uncle Mo, He finished a disappointing seven in the Florida Derby.

The Florida Derby was won by Dialed In with Shackleford finishing second, so do not expect much here with an even further distance to travel.

His pedigree agrees with the Belmont but it also agreed with the Derby and Preakness. His sire was Bernardini, who was the champion three-year-old colt of 2006.

Bernardini's sire, A.P. Indy, took the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles and the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles, while Bernardini's grandsire, Seattle Slew, swept the Triple Crown in 1977.

It is worth repeating that the inside posts (see slide two) have not been a favorable spot to start from in recent Belmont Stakes history. Not to mention that he has been defeated by 10 or more lengths in three of his four Grade 1 starts.

With odds ranging from 18-1 to 25-1, Stay Thirsty would reward a $2 bet with about $40 to $50. Not bad if you’re looking to quench your thirst on what is expected to be a very hot day.

No. 8 Monzon: Anyone Looking for a Fight?

Monzon has the pedigree for the distance in this race.

As the son of 1995 Belmont Stakes winner Thunder Gulch, Monzon is currently the second longest shot in the race at 30-1.

Named after the Argentine middleweight boxing champion Carlos Monzon and ridden by Jose Lezcano, Monzon drew the No. 7 post and has won three of his eight starts.

He will not arrive in New York until tomorrow morning, as he has been working out in Baltimore at the historic Sagamore Farm. Under Armour founder, Kevin Plank, is currently renovating Sagamore.

The 1953 Belmont winner, Native Dancer is buried at Sagamore just a few steps from where Monzon trains and resides.

He would not be the first long shot to win from Sagamore. At the Breeders’ Cup in November, the 46-1 shot Shared Account, beat the heavily favored Midday in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Monzon was impressive in winning each of his first two starts on dirt, including a last-to-first win in the Count Fleet back in April.

However, since his Count Fleet victory, Monzon has failed to impress in each of his two graded stakes races.

He finished fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and most recently, could factor no better than sixth in the local prep for the Belmont, the Peter Pan.

While Monzon got off to a fast start in his career, he has gone backwards lately, but I like his pedigree over the horses I have listed behind him.

I cannot put out of my mind the way he closed in the Count Fleet. He came on quickly and decisively.

If Monzon should take a giant leap forward against a much better field, an extra $2 bet to win on him, could pocket you anywhere from $75 to $90 tomorrow.

In other words, and strictly in my opinion, Monzon is not the worst long shot in this race that you could lose two dollars on. If I had more stones, I may even throw him in the triple. In fact, that is exactly what I am going to do.

No. 7 Mucho Macho Man: Macho...Macho...Man...Everybody's Gotta Be, a Macho Man

Risen Star Stakes

The horse named after The Village People's late 1970s hit Macho Man, has got be that and a whole lot more at the Belmont.

Kathy Ritvo, Macho's trainer, is without a doubt the feel good story of this Triple Crown season. However, she needs a flawless trip from Mucho and her new jockey to become the first female trainer to win Belmont Stakes.

Just three years ago, Ritvo lay in a hospital bed waiting for a heart transplant that she wasn’t sure would ever come, and in fact, had it come two weeks later, Ritvo may not be with us today.

A third place finish in the Derby gave Preakness bettors some hope heading to Baltimore.

At Pimlico in the Preakness, Mucho threw a shoe and finished a disappointing sixth.

Despite his Preakness finish, his fans will stay, and some extra money may flow his way. This possibility exists because of the switch in jockeys to reigning Eclipse Award winner, Ramon Dominguez.

Distance can be a major downfall for many young horses, and this race is brutal. That said, Mucho is the youngest horse in the field.

Technically every horse turns a year older on January 1, but Mucho really turns three years old on June 15, whereas Animal Kingdom was born in mid March.

Three months can be a lot of quality time in the maturation of a racehorse.

While we can no doubt look forward to great things from Mucho later in the year, The Belmont's distance may just be too much for him right now.

The son of Macho Uno has a pedigree that is consistent at races the length of the Derby.

He has finished third or better in eight of 10 career races. At 12-1 Mucho would return about $26 to win.

No. 6 Brilliant Speed: Needs to Be More Than Brilliant to Win Here

2011 Blue Grass Stakes

Brilliant Speed returns to the Triple Crown series after not running in the Preakness Stakes.

He has not proven to be a great dirt horse. Besides his seventh place finish in the Kentucky Derby, he has finished fourth and seventh in his only other two dirt tries.

He has shown flashes of what his name claims. On the synthetic racing surface known as polytrack in April's Blue Grass Stakes, the 19-1 long shot came from last to win in a photo finish.

He looked as though he had more to deliver over the 1 1/8-mile race.

Brilliants Speed is a horse that has knack for finishing in the money. He has crossed the wire third or better in six of nine career races.

The son of Dynaformer has the Pedigree to run long distances, but it may be on the grass where we see the consistency take shape.

Trainer Thomas Albertrani and jockey Joel Rosario will each be appearing in their second Belmont. Albertrani won a Triple Crown race in 2006 when he saddled Bernadini to victory in the Preakness.

Distance should not be too much of an obstacle for Blue Grass winner. Although his sire was considered an excellent turf horse, his bloodlines have been impressive on the dirt.

Barbaro, sired by Dynaformer, won the Kentucky Derby in 2006. Another relative, Perfect Drift won the grade I Stephen Foster Handicap, and then finished third in the 2002 Derby, all on dirt surfaces.

Brilliant Speed can handle the distance in my opinion, but the surface is another question that needs to be answered.

I do not see brilliance here but if your $2 should, the 15-1 mid range long shot could return about $30 in the winner’s circle.

No. 5 Shackleford: Can He Surprise Yet Again?

You do not have to know anything about horse racing to know that if the Preakness were run at either the Derby or Belmont distance, Shackleford could still be fading.

"Like he showed in the Preakness, he's got a high cruising speed," said his trainer, Dale Romans. "He'll try to just keep on galloping around (Belmont) there."

I am not taking anything from away his wire-to-wire victory in Baltimore, but if Romans, jockey Jesus Castanon, who is riding in his first Belmont, think that another "blazing quarter" is the way to victory, then they are sadly mistaken.

Shackleford reminds me of a fullback in football with deceptively quick speed. You know he is fast, but you still do not expect them to find the end zone from 75 yards away. However, they are capable, and when they do, it is still surprising.

Shackleford was 12-1 in Baltimore, and this race is 90-plus yards in terms of sticking with the fullback comparison. I do not know many fullbacks who do not get caught from behind at that distance.

Even Shackleford’s famous three-generation pedigree, which includes Unbridled, who won the KY Derby in 1990 and the great Pleasant Colony, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 1981, faltered at Belmont Park.

In his only start at nine furlongs or greater, Shackleford's sire, Forestry, finished third in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth,

You must go deep into the bloodlines to find the distance, perhaps too deep.

In the absence of a true speed horse like Flashpoint, Shackleford may have to go to the front early.

Only one horse in the last 26 running’s of the Belmont Stakes was able to go wire-to-wire. That was the huge long shot Da' Tara in 2008.

If Shackleford can match the feat, he will no doubt have the inside track at horse of the year honors.

No. 4 Master of Hounds: Simply Isn't as Good as Three Above Him

Master of Hounds ran a good race at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Especially when you consider he came from 15th to fifth in his first race on dirt.

He is also fresh after skipping the Preakness. However, he has made several Trans Atlantic trips which many feel could squelch the rest he received by not going to Baltimore.

How confident do his handlers feel about his chances tomorrow? They skipped a possible start in the English Derby in favor of the Belmont.

Master of Hounds would not be the first Irish horse to make the trip to win this race. Go and Go won impressively back in 1990 by eight and one-quarter lengths over horses such as Derby winner Unbridled.

Ironically Go and Go was also the fourth choice at 8-1 that day.

The Post draw is not favorable, as Master Of Hounds will break from the No.1 post. You will hear that the No. 1 post has produced a record 23 winners in the Belmont.

While true, 17 of those victories occurred between the years of 1902 through 1948. The last horse to win from the No. 1 post was Touch Gold in 1997. Since 1970, only four horses have broken from gate post one and crossed the finish line first.

Master of Hounds is currently 8-1 amongst bettors and would yield a return of about the cost of a beer at Yankee Stadium.

No. 3 Nehro: Could Win but Loves Second, Will Finish Third Here

After breaking his maiden in his third career start under the late Michael Baze, Nehro became a perennial bridesmaid with three consecutive seconds in the Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana Derby's.

His race at Churchill Downs was a thing of beauty. Breaking from post No. 18, he was caught way outside early but still managed to fight his way back and hold off Mucho Macho Man for second.

Talk about pedigree, Nehro is out of Mineshaft, who was named Horse of the Year in 2003. Not to mention the legends that makes up the back end of his bloodline.

Mineshaft's sire, A.P. Indy, was Horse of the Year in 1992 after winning the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles and the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles. His grandsire, Seattle Slew, was Horse of the Year in 1977 following a sweep of the Triple Crown.

Jockey Corey Nakatani, who rides in his third Belmont and trainer Steve Asmussen, who finished second with Curlin in 2007, will have their hands full at this distance, but he should have no problem if he gets a better trip than he did in the Derby.

There is no reason Nehro cannot win tomorrow, I just think he finishes third.

No. 2 Santiva: A Clear Cut Threat to the Field

I liked Astrology as an upset pick in the Preakness, and Santiva is my Astrology pick in the Belmont.

Ironically, Sanitva beat Astrology in his final start as a two-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Sanitva had a lot of promise as a two-year-old, and many feel he is ready to realize the potential from a year ago.

His sixth place finish at the Kentucky Derby is deceiving as he was just five lengths from the leader, as he finished driving.

There was plenty of horse left. Do not be fooled by his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, as it was his first start in two months and only his second start since last November.

His trip was horrible, and he never had a shot as he was caught up inside.

His pedigree is more than adequate for the 1 1/2-mile needed here. Sanitva sire is Giant's Causeway, who won at distances ranging from six furlongs to just under a mile-and-a-half.

His grandsire is Storm cat who progeny includes some good distance runners like Tabasco Cat, who won the 1994 Preakness and Belmont.

He was 34-1 at the Derby, and while he will not be that high today he will be higher than horses like Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford.

His price is likely to be anywhere from 12-1 to 15-1, or if the early TV coverage falls in love with him, possibly 9- or 10-1.

He must be placed in all wagers, which is where he belongs, and is a very viable candidate to pull the upset,

If Johhny "V" should mis-judge the speed of the pace of not just his horse but the field, as he did following the quarter mile at Pimlico three weeks ago, you can bet that Sanitva will be there just as Shackleford was to beat him.

He is the real deal in my mind and should not be overlooked tomorrow by anyone looking to make real money on this race.

No. 1 Animal Kingdom: It's Time for the Do Over

Animal Kingdom, has a few trends going against him.

Ridden by John Velazquez, he will leave from the No. 9 post, which has produced only four Belmont winners since 1905. Trained by Graham Motion, Animal Kingdom is attempting to become the 12th horse to complete a Derby-Belmont sweep.

The last to succeed was Thunder Gulch in 1995. Then, there is the lack of victories by the favorites over the years.

The last a post time favorite won was Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given before him in 2001.

Since 1971, only 12 favorites have come home first. Both trends will be bucked tomorrow as Animal Kingdom becomes lucky number 13.

Much of what I saw in Baltimore leads me to believe that while the jockey change aboard Animal Kingdom looked great in Kentucky, it did not look as good in Baltimore at the Preakness.

This did not happen because John Velazquez, who won the Belmont in 2007 aboard Rags To Riches, forgot how to ride a horse. It may have happened because he was not that familiar with him to begin with.

His lack of time on Animal Kingdom against this talented field may have caused him to misjudge the fast opening quarter, and then, the subsequent slow down that took place with the much slower 46.4 half mile.

Animal Kingdom broke slowly and was last at that point. Velazquez did not seem overly concerned with making any moves at this point and simply waited to long to make a move period.

The slowing pace of the field allowed Shackleford an opportunity to stay up front, but it did not cost him as much energy to do so in the middle stages of the race.

Velazquez was second to last after six furlongs before finally making his move.

He was five-wide entering the stretch and if the Preakness were just 50 more yards, Animal Kingdom would be vying to become the first Triple Crown winner in 33 years today.

You have heard the expression in sports that good teams do not lose games, they just ran out of time before they could win.

This is exactly what happened back on May 21 to Animal Kingdom, and rest assured, it will not happen during the Belmont.

Animal Kingdom will win and do so pulling away by five or more lengths.

Currently as the 2-1 morning line favorite, he will not even put enough money in your pocket for two adult beverages with the victory, but he will prove that he is the top three-year-old in the land.